The Beak Basketball Breakdown: Game #2

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The Cardinal Basketball team takes the floor for game number two on this young season Tuesday night. They will play another team from the Colonial Athletic Association in Hofstra. This game will be the first in the 2013 Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame Tipoff. This feeder tourney will end in a game with North Carolina in a few weeks. The Cardinals hold a 1-0 record against The Pride with Louisville winning the only game played against this team back on November 27, 1977 76-66. The Cards were picked to finish first in the AAC and Hofstra is picked to finish last in the CAA.

Hofstra is in a complete rebuild mode after they hired new head coach Joe Mihalich, who spent the past 15 years as the head coach at Niagara. Hofstra fired coach Mo Cassara on March 22 after a 7-25 season marred by the arrests of four players on charges related to several on-campus burglaries. They are getting a good one in Mihalich. His Niagara team went 19-14 and won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association regular-season championship. He led the Purple Eagles to two NCAA tournaments and three NITs, and he had a winning record in 12 of his 15 seasons. He will try to recreate that success at Hofstra a program winning a total of just seven conference games over two years.
You can expect the game on Tuesday to be an up and down contest as Mihalich is a coach that likes to play an up tempo style of basketball. His Niagara teams played about 69 possessions a game. Coach Mihalich on his style of play:
“I always like to try to play fast,” he said. “It is a fun way to play. A fun style to watch. A fun style to coach.” The Pride will rely on two graduate transfers Zeke Upshaw (14.5 points a game) from Illinois State and Dion Nesmith (12 points a game) from Monmouth to lead in the backcourt, while hoping that their big rebounders Stephen Nwaukoni (7 points, 7 rebounds a game) and Moussa Kone (12 points, 11 rebounds a game) can hold things down in the front-court. Helping to run the offense and setting everyone up will be true freshman guard Chris Jenkins (10.5 points a game) and Jamall Robinson (11.5 points, 4 rebounds a game).

Hofstra
2013-14 OVERALL RANKINGS
-POINTS PER GAME
82.0
90th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
41.0
105th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.0
145th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.471
109th
OVERALL

Kenpom Ranks
Overall – #303
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-105.9 ranks 293rd
Offensive Adjustment Efficiency
-94.8 ranks 296th

The storyline Tuesday night will likely be the return of Chane Behanan to the Louisville bench. It’s up in the air on whether or not he will play significant minutes but just him being back with the team will be a welcomed site. Although both have been fully cleared medically Luke Hancock might only see limited time while Kevin Ware will again be held out of this game. Coach Pitino said in his Press conference Tuesday that Kevin is still limping some. Says that he won’t play again until that stops. I will be watching to see if the Cards can get off to a better start on Tuesday night and if they can shoot the ball better. They were settling for jump shots too often in the game Saturday and need to look to running their offense and taking advantage of their size and athleticism over the lesser opponent. This Hofstra team has some guys that rebound well and will challenge Wayne, Van Treese, and Mango. I don’t expect this one to be that much of a contest but will be another good game for the Cards to fine tune some things and to get the new guys more acclimated. Cards will cruise in this one. The only question will be by how much and how well.

Russ 2.0’s Game Is A Beauty, & Montrezl Is The Beast In First Exhibition

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The 2013-14 basketball season is unofficially under way and tonight the defending National Champion Louisville Cardinals took the floor of the KFC Yum Center for the first time against another opponent. They put on an offensive show beating Kentucky Wesleyan 115 to 67 in what will be the first of two exhibitions to start this early season. Coach Happy Osborne said after the game “The good news is we get to cash the check.” But the news for the Cards was much better than that. The players were wearing the Adidas “Rise and Repeat” warm-up shirts tonight and the way things looked that may be an omen.

One thing is for sure about this group of Cardinals and that’s their ability to shoot the basketball. This may turn out to be one of the better offensive groups that Coach Pitino has had. And the two players that stood out tonight were Russ and Montrezl. These guys alone make the Cards a top 10 team. They combined tonight for 37 points. Russ has always been able to cause problems for opposing defenses with his ability to get into the lane and create offense for himself. This year they get to deal with Russ 2.0. He now looks to create scoring opportunities for his team-mates and looks to be playing much more under control. Montrezl Harrell is just a monster in the lane. If he is near the rim you can bet he’s going to try and rip it off. He had 8 dunks tonight and had it been a regular game it would have beaten the old record of 7 set by Pervis Ellison in 1988. I don’t think its a stretch to say that record will go down before the season is over. I was also impressed with the new guys. Each of them came into the game at some point and made some really confident plays. I didn’t see any wide eyes and it looks like these guys are learning quick. Jones, Rozier and Gill stood out among the new faces and combined for 47 points and 18 rebounds. Our back-court is going to be one of the best in the country if these guys have as much upside as they appear to have. Mango and Agau did some good things tonight as well and each of them grabbed 8 boards. We are going to need one or both of these guys to emerge for us down low. I was a little disappointed in Blackshear and Van Treese. I would have liked to see them stand out and have more of a presence in the game. The time is now for both of them. We need them to step up. They combined tonight for 6 points and 5 rebounds.

Other than the new foul rule causing a free-throw fest and prolonging the game an extra 40 minutes there wasn’t much to complain about in this first exhibition. These guys stay healthy, continue their progression and gel as a team there’s no reason I shouldn’t be taking an April vacation to Arlington Texas at the end of the season.

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Rick Pitino post game:

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March Madness: The Title Game Beak Breakdown Michigan

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Our Cards have won 15 straight games and have made it to the end of the road on their final four journey. They will face a young but very talented Michigan team to cut down the nets Monday night. This is the first title game for the Cardinals in 27 years. Louisville played Michigan in 1977 and won 88-85 and then played again in 1978 winning that game 86-84. Rick Pitino is 0-1 all-time against Michigan playing them in the 1993 Final Four against the Fab 5 and lost 81-78.

There are a few things you can confidently predict about a team coached by John Beilein. They will play slow. They will shoot lots of threes. They will take good care of the ball. Offensive rebounds and free throws will not be weapons. Beilein did a great job with under-the-radar recruits, and we now know what happens when he lands the big dogs. Michigan is one of the youngest teams in the field of 68. Beilein’s eight-man rotation consists of four highly touted freshmen, two sophomores and two juniors. This young group are an exceptional team on the offensive end of the floor but that hasn’t caught up to their defense. They do have a tendency to act their age at times and will often settle for jump shots, not get to the free-throw line and do a poor job of rebounding the ball. With such a wide variance between offensive and defensive efficiency most predicted the Wolverines to be upset in the previous rounds of the NCAA tourney. They have stepped up and done a good job of overcoming their deficiencies to make the national title game. On offense the Wolverines play a hybrid-Princeton offense that utilizes three or four guards at once, relies heavily on the 3-point shot and creating mismatches by setting ball screens. On defense they want to keep opponents off-balance by switching things up. Primarily a man-to-man defensive team, they will mix in some 2-3 zone and 1-3-1 zone at times the latter of which the Wolverines trap out of, causing serious headaches to opposing squads.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 121.7 Rank 1
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 91.6 Rank 32
Kenpom Overall Rank: 5th

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
75.2
27th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
35.1
156th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.3
77th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.484
9th
OVERALL

Michigan season averages on offense:
3pt-38.3%, 2pt-48.3%, FT-70%
Michigan season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 12.1, Blocks- 2.8, Steals- 6.2

Projected Starters:

F Glenn Robinson III FR: Rated a five-star recruit and the No. 18 player in the nation, GRIII is an athletic wing whose best traits are attacking the basket on offense and the glass on defense. He adds versatility to Beilein’s lineup, and he can slide over to the power forward spot when the Wolverines want to get quicker and more up-tempo. He has 64 points and 31 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Mitch McGary FR: He may be the best recruit in Beilein’s tenure at Michigan. ESPN rated him a four-star prospect, the No. 5 power forward and the No. 27 player in the class of 2012. He’s a do-whatever-it-takes player who isn’t afraid to mix it up or dive after a loose ball. Defensively, he can use his wide-bodied frame to box out and keep opponents from the lane while being an effective shot-alterer. His offensive strengths now are as a left-handed, back-to-the-bucket scorer. He has 80 points and 58 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Tim Hardaway Jr. JR: He is a strong rebounder from the guard spot and possesses a similar ability as Burke in slashing to the basket, albeit with not as quick a first step or as good of ball-handling skills. He loves to jack up the 3 ball and sometimes takes plays off on defense. He has 67 points and 21 rebounds.

G Trey Burke SOPH: With good height and quickness, Burke can penetrate the lane off the bounce and look to either score or distribute the ball. He’s equally adept at spotting up for a 3-pointer, and he can pull up for midrange jumpers while attacking the basket in the half-court or on the break. He has 69 points, 35 assist and 17 rebounds.

G Nik Stauskas FR: The lengthy Canadian is a top-100 recruit Beilein called “the ultimate gym rat” who plays the game with passion and energy. He’s a big two guard and an outstanding shooter with range, but is also one of those shooters who has the ability to play off the bounce. He really sees the floor as well. He has 49 in the NCAA tourney and went 6-6 from the 3 point line against Florida in the regional final.

Bench Players:

F Jordan Morgan JR: Defensively, he’s more adept at keeping opposing bigs from moving toward the basket than he is at altering their shots. Morgan continued to develop around the rim as a scorer, attacking the bucket for dunks or layups. He is not very affective in the short to midrange game. He has 5 points and 8 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Jon Horford SOPH: He is former Florida player Al Horford’s brother. Like his brother Al when he played for Florida, Jon Horford oozes potential between his lean, long frame and ability to get off the floor quickly. It translates to shot blocking, rebounding and pass deflections. He has 12 points and 11 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Spike Albrecht FR: He has a very high basketball IQ and is a true point guard whose best attributes are guiding an offense and setting up his teammates. He has 19 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist in the NCAA tourney.

G Caris LeVert FR: In Levert, the Wolverines get a lithe but versatile player who can play any of the three guard spots. He had his most productive game of the NCAA tourney against Syracuse where he scored 8 points, had 4 rebounds and 2 assist.

The national championship game is now set and it will feature the nations best offense versus the nations best defense according to Kenpom. But I feel like this game is more about Louisville’s multidimensional attack against a Michigan team that relies heavily on one aspect of their game to be successful. And I think if the Cards can get them to act their age whether that means; beating up the Wolverines’ four-guard lineup on the backboards, making Robinson III disappear, or getting one of the young Michigan stars into foul trouble they will be cutting down the nets.

For whatever reason four of the Cards most important players took the night off in the game against Wichita State. I think they were just a victim of those high emotions and with that survive and advance game out of the way these guys will be on a mission Monday night. I think this is a very good Michigan team but the 2012-13 Louisville Cardinals are the team of destiny and they are not going to be denied. I’ve been waiting 27 years to watch my favorite team climb those ladders and will finally get to see it on Monday night. Cards are gonna get it done.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Michigan 73

March Madness: Final Four Beak Breakdown Wichita State

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It has been a whirlwind for the last couple of days around the Louisville basketball program. The passion, purpose and sense of brotherhood of this team has now been discovered by a national audience. Saturday it will be time to refocus and get back down to business as the Cards must win two more games to be the National Champion. The Cards will face another team that has played very inspired basketball this season when they open up their 10th Final Four against the Wichita State Shockers of the Missouri Valley conference.

Some are calling the Shockers the Cinderella of this years NCAA Tournament but I don’t think the glass slipper fits in this case and I don’t think this team wants it to. Wichita State has won 86 games the last three seasons with players who ran faster and jumped higher than most of their opponents. Perhaps overlooked was the fact those players used those tools in the most unselfish and efficient way possible. And their head coach Gregg Marshall has had only one losing season in his last 14 years. The Shockers are no strangers to success as they had their fourth straight 20-win season this year including winning their first 18 straight. This is not the most talented team, but it is one of the hardest-working teams. The Shockers pass the ball, rarely take bad shots and take pride in winning the rebounding battle. They rank in the top 20 for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. This is a deep team that will play 8 to 10 guys a game. They have 3 players that score in double figures and everyone that sees time usually ends up in the scoring column. They have a team mindset when it comes to their offense. On defense they will play man-to-man and use 2-2-1 full-court pressure that forces teams to play faster than they’d like. They have the same defensive philosophy that the Cards have and hope to wear teams down with their deep bench and constant pressure.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 111.0 Rank 33
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.9 Rank 23

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
69.4
117th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
38.4
27th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.8
111th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.443
115th
OVERALL

Wichita State season averages on offense:
3pt-34%, 2pt-44.1%, FT-69.8%
Wichita State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 13.1, Blocks- 4.6, Steals- 7.5

Projected Starters:

C Ehimen Orukpe SR: . Orukpe, a 7-footer from Nigeria, is not a natural scorer or ball handler. But he does help the team with his defense in the Kane and his shot blocking ability and rebounding. He has scored 7 points and has 16 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Carl Hall SR: He is another strong player in the lane and will score most of his points on put backs and post moves. This is a guy who waited for his time and has taken advantage of it. He has scored 43 points and has 12 blocked shots in the NCAA tourney.

G Tekele Cotton SOPH: He is strong enough to guard all of the perimeter shooters. Is a very tough athletic guard that can push the break and get to the rim. He also rebounds well. He has scored 30 points and has 15 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Demetric Williams SR: He is WSU’s top on-the-ball defender. He has earned more playing time when he harnessed his quickness and cut down his turnovers. He has 6 points and 3 assist in the NCAA tourney.

G Malcolm Armstead SR: The lefty point Armstead, a 6-foot Oregon transfer, brings toughness, double-figure scoring and experience to the table for the Shockers. He has scored 62 points and 21 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

Bench Players:

F Cleanthony Early JR: He is their best weapon off the bench. An all-league performer and all-name team pick, Early was a JUCO gem for a Shockers team that lost its top five scorers from the 2011-12 season. He brings instant offense off the bench and is a good rebounder. He has scored 57 points and 28 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Ron Baker FR: He is a red shirt freshman that gives this team a good three point shooter off the bench and will be brought in to hit clutch shots. He has scored 44 points and hit 6 three point shots in the NCAA tourney.

G Fred VanVleet FR: Was a four-star recruit and the No. 83 player and No. 15 point guard in the class of 2012. He impressed the WSU coaches with his maturity and plays an important role off the bench. He has scored 33 points in the NCAA tourney.

G Nick Wiggins JR: He is the older brother of the nation’s top high school senior, Andrew Wiggins. Junior swingman, is an excellent shooter with great range. He can give WSU off the bench.

You don’t make it to the Final Four without being a really good team. Wichita State is a very good team. They have won 4 games in the tourney primarily from getting extra possessions from their offensive rebounding and steals. They have also had some good 3 point shooting. They will have a tougher time getting the extra possessions against our Cards. Our guys have done a great job of taking care of the ball and they won’t be forced into a frantic style of play. They will welcome it and do it much better than the shockers. The Cards have also done a very good job of guarding the perimeter in the last 4 games so the Shockers won’t see any easy ones.

I also think Louisville can exploit some questionable ball-handling in a way no one has done to the Shockers yet this tourney. Wichita State actually turns it over on 19.6 percent of possessions, and Louisville’s press has the Cardinals ranked second in the country in steal percentage 16.1. The Cards also go to the offensive glass hard, grabbing rebounds on 38.3 percent of its missed shots 15th in the nation. So the Shockers won’t have their usual advantage on the boards.

They have some quality players but Russ, Peyton, Gorgui, Chane, Wayne, Luke, Montrezl and Stephan are on a different level in my opinion. This Cardinal team has their eyes on the prize and it is going to take more than a very good Wichita State team to send them home. I think they will hang with us for a little bit just playing off the emotions of the moment but the Cards will prevail.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Wichita State 65

March Madness: The Elite 8 Beak Breakdown Duke

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The last time these teams played it was a “Battle for Atlantis” but on Sunday it will be a battle to see who goes to Atlanta. The game between these teams in November was one of the most anticipated of the pre-season and watching that game most thought the next time these teams played that it would be for the national title. It’s not the national championship Sunday evening but it will have that type of atmosphere as these great teams play for the regional title. Duke beat the Cards in that early game in the Bahamas 76-71. The Louisville program has been to the elite 8 four times in the last six years. This is the 12th elite 8 in school history. This will be the first meeting between Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski since the classic 1992 battle.

When your team is getting ready to play the Duke Blue Devils one thing comes to mind. 
Coach Mike Krzyzewski. He is the winningest coach in college basketball history and has a track record that is unmatched. We are talking 2 Olympic gold medals, a World Championship, over 900 wins and four NCAA titles folks. His record in the NCAA Tournament is 79-24. This is obviously a slight edge that Duke has in every contest. The Devils also return four starters and six key players from a year ago. This includes five starters who all averaged double figures this season. Offense is not a problem for this team. They boast five regular three-point shooters who broke 35 percent or better this season, three guys who shot better than 40 percent on twos, and two players who have picked up over 100 points from the free throw line. This team will also take very good care of the ball as they commit very few turnovers. They don’t rush their offense and usually get good shots with most of their possessions. The Blue Devils have excellent balance, with all five starters averaging in double figures. They space the court and let their skilled starting five go to town in Coach K’s simple but lethal plan.
The Devils are very talented folks, but do have some question marks. Their group is a very capable bunch but sometimes lack the one player who will step up and take over a game if need be. Two point defense has often been a problem as well. They have especially had trouble with teams that have guards who can penetrate the lane. Duke starts three guards, so rebounding can also be a problem at times. They will play 7 guys so their stamina might come into question having to face a Louisville team that goes 9 deep and will press the whole game.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 119.5 Rank 4
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.5 Rank 17
Kenpom Overall Rank: 4

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
78.3
6th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
33.8
213th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.7
57th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.476
17th
OVERALL

Duke’s season averages on offense:
3pt-49.3%, 2pt-47.5%, FT-73.8%
Duke’s season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 14.1, Blocks- 3.8, Steals- 6.5

Projected Starters:

C Mason Plumlee SR: He rebounds well at both ends of the floor, and is one of the best-passing big men in the league. He is also a good defender in the lane and blocks a lot of shots. He has 57 points and 27 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Ryan Kelly SR: He can truly be a dangerous offensive weapon. This guy has and is always capable of shooting over 50% from the 3 point line in a game. He is also another good defender in the lane and is a capable shot blocker. He has 26 points and 7 blocked shots in the NCAA tourney.

G Rasheed Sulaimon FR: He is Duke’s top-rated recruit. He is a player that takes pride in his defense and is a good three point shooter. He is a really good rebounder for a guard and can be a big x-factor for this team if he has his game. He has 60 points and 17 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Seth Curry SR: Since coach K started using him more as a scorer and less as the guy running the offense Curry has been the most consistent player on the team. Whenever they need a big shot he is usually the guy that takes it. He can be lethal from deep. He has 87 points in the NCAA tourney.

G Quinn Cook Soph: He is a great penetrating guard who can find the open man. He is a great assist guy who has very few turnovers. He is also a very good defender up front for the Blue Devils. He is the player that really hurt the Cards the most the last time these teams played. He has 20 points and 21 assist in the NCAA tourney.

Bench players:

G Tyler Thornton JR: He isn’t a great playmaker, but he takes care of the ball Isn’t a great on-the-ball defender, but may be the toughest, most versatile defensive player. He has 21 points and 6 steals in the NCAA tourney.

F Josh Hairston JR: The Duke coaches like the energy he brings to the court and the fact that he’s a vocal defender. He has 2 points and 7 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

This will be the first time the Cards have played Duke in the tournament since the 1986 NCAA Championship Game. Pervis Ellison, Milt Wagner, Johnny Dawkins and Jay Bilas were the stars of the show the last time around. Gorgui Dieng, Russ Smith, Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee will play those roles Sunday and will more than likely be the players that determine the outcome in this one. The battle in the paint between Plumlee and Dieng features two of college basketball’s premier big men going head-to-head. With Gorgui being the more physical player and Mason being the more skilled player. Plumlee is having the better NCAA but I’m expecting Gorgui to find his mojo again and step up to the challenge Sunday defensively. Duke struggles with guys that get out well in transition. Russ is the best in the NCAA at that.

All eyes will also be on the battle between two Hall of Fame coaches Sunday as well. Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski are master teachers who really develop their players from an individual standpoint. From start to finish, they emphasize roles and responsibilities. They both do a great job at connecting with their players coaching with high intensity always instructional rather than critical. When coach Pitino last faced Krzyzewski in 1992 it was his team who were playing as the underdogs. Sunday the role will be reversed. It’s gonna be fun watching these masterminds of the game go at it.

Duke has some great players but Louisville has them to and more of them. I think the depth of our Cards will play a huge role in the outcome of this one. Duke typically plays 6 guys and at most 7. While Louisville could have 10 guys see action. And this is a big deal when a team is playing the quick turnaround of the NCAA tournament. I look for our Cards to play that tough man-to-man from start to finish in this one. To beat the Devils, an opponent must exploit their lack of frontcourt speed, doggedly defend the 3-point line and hold its own on the glass. It’s quite a daunting to-do list but this group of Cards will be up for the challenge. And while this one stays close throughout Duke’s legs will eventually give out allowing our Cards to win a close one. I can’t hardly wait it’s gonna be great.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Duke 73

March Madness: The Sweet 16 Beak Breakdown Oregon

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On Friday night our Cards will be in Indianapolis to face the Oregon Ducks in the Sweet 16. The Cards will be looking to win their 13th straight game in what will be their 25th appearance in the Sweet 16. Coach Pitino is unbeaten in ten Sweet 16 appearances, his average winning margin is 19.8 points. At Louisville that average margin has been 21.3 points. Louisville is just 1-2 all-time versus Oregon. The Cards last beat the Ducks December 20, 1954. Nearly 59 years ago. The last two times these teams have played it hasn’t been pretty for Louisville. The Ducks blew out the Cards 88-65 in Denny Crum’s final season and 90-63 in Pitino’s First Season.

Our last opponent Colorado State was a team laced with senior leadership and veteran players. But this Dana Altman Oregon team is lead by Six freshmen, two JUCO transfers and a redshirt freshman. Many thought this would equal unavoidable headaches for Altman and his staff this season with a reliance on so much youth but it offered satisfaction and surprise as the Ducks somehow bonded together quickly, and have had a very good run. This young Oregon team really spurred their success on the defensive side of the floor. The Ducks use athleticism and quickness to turn their opponents over and block shots at a high rate. They turn opposing teams over 22.3 percent of possessions good for 56th in the nation, and block shots on the interior 6.9 percent of possessions good for 15th in the country. Their ability to generate possessions via steals and blocked shots is a staple of their defense. On offense they like to pound the ball inside to their bigs. They love to dominate the paint area and 57 percent of their points come on 2-point shots. This is a team that shoots well from inside the arc and poorly from behind it. They also score a large percentage of their points from the free throw line. This young group of Ducks do get careless with the ball turning it over an average of 17 times in their last three games and their 21.6 percent turnover figure makes them the 263rd worst team in the nation in coughing up the basketball.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 105.2 Rank 99
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 87.5 Rank 9
Kenpom Overall Rank: 31

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
71.7
69th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
37.4
52nd
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.0
151st
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.447
97th
OVERALL

Colorado State season averages on offense:
3pt-31.3%, 2pt-44.8%, FT-70.7%
Colorado State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 15.4, Blocks- 4, Steals- 9

Projected Starters:

C Tony Woods SR: He serves as the defensive anchor of the group swatting away 40 shots this season. He isn’t that great on the defensive glass. Considered a legit NBA prospect when he started out at Wake Forest, Woods simply hasn’t progressed enough on offense to justify the hype. He finishes decently but rarely creates his own shot.

F E.J. Singler SR: The versatile senior can play anywhere from shooting guard to power forward, and there’s an intangible sense of leadership and determination in the Oregon native that has rubbed off on the rest of his team. He shot 67% against St Louis and has scored 22 points in the NCAA. He is the Ducks best player.

F Arsalan Kazemi SR The first Iranian-born player in Division I men’s college hoops Since transferring from Rice University last year, Kazemi has become a popular and important member of a surging Ducks basketball team. He is a rebounding machine and has 33 rebounds in his last two NCAA games. He has also scored 19 points.

G Damyean Dotson FR: He was voted Houston’s player of the year last season. He is a hard nosed player and can be a prolific scorer. He has scored 40 points in the two NCAA games.

G Johnathan Loyd JR: The 5-8 guard from Las Vegas has yet to reach expectations but is a solid ball-handler. Loyd is the team’s best playmaker, but does struggle to make shots. While obviously limited by his height on defense, Loyd does generate plenty of steals. He has 14 points and 9 assist in their two NCAA games.

Bench Players:

F Carlos Emory SR: A very athletic wing improved as the season continued and has much more potential. He is a good shooter. He shot 60% from the field in the last game and has scored 26 points. He also goes after the boards with 13 in the last two games.

G Dominic Artis FR: ESPN rated Artis a four-star recruit and the No. 8 point guard in the 2012 class. While Artis is actually listed at 5-11 by some recruiting websites, he has long arms, good quickness and an ability to change gears. He’s also a savvy gym rat who has picked up the Ducks’ offense quickly. He has scored 13 points in the NCAA.

C Waverly Austin JR: The Ducks picked up a late commitment from Austin, a junior college transfer, after he was unable to attain eligibility at South Florida before school started. Rated the No. 5 transfer in the country by Jucorecruiting.com, He gives the Ducks size when Woods is on the bench. He has 6 rebounds in their NCAA games.

This is another one of those games that is going to take a team effort on the boards. This Oregon team really goes after it on the glass but the Cards just out rebounded the best rebounding team in the tournament in Colorado State so this doesn’t concern me. They are going to go right at Gorgui and Chane with their bigs. This will be the first time in the tournament that our front-court will really be challenged. I think our guys are the more athletic group but Chane might have problems with their length. But no fear as that will just require more minutes out of our freshman sensation Montrezl Harrell. If our front-court does a good job guarding their post players straight up it will force them into a jump shooting team and with only two good shooters on their team this will lead to a lot of fast shots by the Ducks and transition offense for the Cards. Our back-court is going to have a field day with this high turnover team. Also where they go 6 deep before falling off we go 9 deep without falling off so the benches will come into play. There are no easy ones at this point in the season but this one is very winnable if the Cards take care of their business.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Oregon 61

March Madness: The Third Round Beak Breakdown Colorado St

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The Cards just completely overwhelmed their first opponent in the NCAA tournament Thursday night in Rupp Arena. The match-up was just the perfect fit for the Cards up and down style of play. On Saturday the competition starts to get a little tougher as they will face the 8 seeded Colorado St Rams. They beat Missouri 84-72 to advance to the round of 32. The Rams had a great season with a 25-7 record and a second place finish in the Mountain West conference. They made their way to a 22nd ranking and it was the first time this team had been ranked since 1954. This is the second straight NCAA tournament appearance by the Rams, which hasn’t happened since the mid 1960s.

Thanks to the fine work of former coach Tim Miles, who parlayed it into the top job at Nebraska, Larry Eustachy took over a Colorado State program that was very good. The Rams return three starters and five seniors. Eustachy previous head-coaching jobs were at Southern Miss, Iowa State, Utah State and Idaho. He says this is the best job he’s ever had. They have a pretty good offensive and do a great job of spreading the court to execute their inside out game. They have some solid shooters and players that use good fundamentals. They take very good care of the ball. Their defense is not great but they are a scrappy bunch and are very active on that end of the floor. They are the best rebounding team in the country with a +12 average margin. They do struggle with their perimeter defense allowing opponents to shoot well from the 3 point shot. They rank 157th in that category.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 117.5 Rank 7
ADJ Efficience- Defense 96.7 Rank 96
Kenpom Overall Rank: 24

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
73.1
50th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
40.4
4th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.1
145th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.448
94th
OVERALL

Colorado State season averages on offense:
3pt-33.7%, 2pt-44.8%, FT-71.3%
Colorado State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 17, Blocks- 2, Steals- 5

Projected Starters:

F/C Colton Iverson SR: He started his career at Minnesota. He is the teams leading scorer with 14.6 points a game. He is a great rebounder and will alter some shots. He had 13 blocks in their win against Missouri. This guy is the tallest and best player on this team.

F Pierce Hornung SR: Any coach in the Mountain West will say a big factor in the Rams’ recent success is due to the play of this 6-5 senior. He is considered the Rams’ glue guy, and despite his lack of size, he leads the team in rebounding with 9.2 per game.

F Greg Smith SR: He is solid, and what he lacks in height at 6-6 he makes up for with speed and athleticism. He averages 11.3 points a game.

G Wes Eikmeier SR: An Iowa State transfer who is a three-year starter, was a first-team All-Mountain West selection. He is one of this teams better shooters. He averages 12.5 points a game.

G Dorian Green SR: This guy has been a starter for his entire career and is the 19th player in school history to score more than 1,000 points. He is very good on both ends of the floor. He averages 13.1 points a game.

Key Reserves:

G Daniel Bejarano SOPH: Sat out last season after transferring from Arizona, where he played sparingly as a freshman. He was ranked as the 40th-best high school prospect in the nation by one recruiting analyst, and the 13th-best shooting guard in the country by another. Averages 6.1 points a game.

G Jon Octeus SOPH: Has the coolest name in the NCAA tournament. He provides some good shooting off the bench. He averages 43% from the field. He scored 12 points against Missouri.

F Gerson Santo JR: Is another reliable big guy for this team who will come in and provide quality minutes. He had 3 rebounds and 4 points against Missouri.

In the NCAA tournament you have to bring your game and not rely on your name. That statement will never be more true than when our Cards face the Rams on Saturday. These guys won’t care about the fact that they are playing the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament. In fact it will probably encourage them to play harder. This will be the most veteran squad the Cards have played all year and one of the most inspired basketball teams they have played all season. We will really need our perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Rams poor perimeter defense. Hopefully Hancock and Blackshear can get it going from deep. Kevin Ware and Russ Smith should also be able to get open looks from the three. Another advantage our Cards will have is their length and athleticism. Their tallest player is 6-10 and they are a undersized team. They also don’t have that much versatility. Gorgui and Chane should be able to bully their way inside and will need to be aggressive on the glass. This is also a game where Stephan Van Treese will be good to have. It’s funny but a lot of their guys are blue collar players like SVT. Peyton’s speed will also be a huge advantage. He should have no problem getting into the lane and the free-throw line.

The NCAA tournament gets real on Saturday folks. This Colorado group of Seniors are in it to win it. And they have a great head man leading their charge. I don’t think you’ll see a cake walk here but we will survive and advance in this one.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 69 Colorado St 57

March Madness: The First Round Beak Breakdown A&T

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The Brackets are out and let the madness begin. Our Cardinals got the number 1 overall seed in the Midwest but many believe that we will have the toughest road to Atlanta. Especially with an elite 8 match-up with Duke or Michigan St in Indianapolis looming. The bottom line is that in order to be the best you have to beat the best. It appears the Cards will get their chance to do just that. When this thing is over here in a few weeks and Louisville is the last team standing there will be no questions about who the best is.

Our Cardinals learned on selection Sunday that they would play the winner of the play-in game between 16 seed North Carolina A&T and 16 seed Liberty in their first game to kick off March Madness. And tonight A&T beat Liberty in the play-in game 73-72. So our Cards will play A&T in the first session in Lexington at Rupp Arena on Thursday night. The Cardinals will be going into the NCAA tournament as the number one over-all seed. This makes the third number one seed for Louisville and second over-all number one seed. The committee began ranking 1 seeds in 2004. Cards were a number one seed in 83 and a number one over-all seed back in 09.

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North Carolina A&T is a team out of the MEAC conference and they got that conferences automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. They beat Delaware St 84-78 for their first MEAC title since 1995. They did play two Big East teams this season Cincy and Seton Hall. They lost both of those contest. They also played EKU this season and beat the Colonels 78-67. A&T last went to the NCAA tournament 17 years ago, also the last time the team won any sort of MEAC hardware. The Aggies hadn’t finished above the .500 mark in 15 seasons, and after logging their fourth one-and-done exit from the MEAC tournament in a five-year span, A&T terminated Jerry Eaves with one year left on his contract and brought in former South Carolina State and Tennessee State head coach Cy Alexander to replace Eaves. A&T will likely be an up-tempo team under Alexander, as his past squads have often finished near the top of D-I in pace. He runs an aggressive man-to-man defense that results in a high number of steals, but an even higher number of easy looks for the opposition. Expect the Aggies to work at a more deliberate pace running an offense that uses a variety of sets and emphasizes an inside-out philosophy. Five seniors and a junior return, so the Aggies will be nothing if not experienced.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 89.6 Rank 317
ADJ Efficience- Defense 95.3 Rank 81
Kenpom Overall Rank: 226

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
62.2
290th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
35.4
131st
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
11.1
293rd
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.399
317th
OVERALL

North Carolina A&T’s season averages on offense:
FG%-39.9%, 3PT-29.9%, FT-65.8%
North Carolina A&T’s season averages on defense:
Rebounds-35pg, Steals-7, Blocks-5

Projected Starters:

F Adrian Powell: He is a 6-6 senior swingman who is their top performer averaging 12.5 points per game and 5 rebounds. He is a solid shooter from anywhere on the court, and may be taking a lot of the catch- and-shoot looks.

F Austin Witter: This guy is also one of their top returning senior performers leading the team in rebounds at 7.1 per game and assist at 2.1 per game. Witter is versatile enough to play either forward spot, as well as center.

G Jean Louisme: Is another senior with a lot of experience and can shoot the deep ball. He averages 9.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.

F Bruce Beckford: He is a freshman from one of the most prestigious high school programs in the country, Montrose Christian Academy. And came to A&T with a college body, so he gives the Aggies a physical presence in the paint. Averages 7.9 points per game and 4.4 rebounds.

G Lamont Middleton: A junior that has a scorer’s mentality. Likes to get to the rim and finish. Is an excellent rebounder for a guard. Averages 12.4 points per game and 4.1 rebounds.

Key reserves:

F DaMetrius Upchurch: A senior who is one of only two Aggies to top 100 with his offensive rating, is a low-post player with solid offensive rebounding abilities. Averages 4.5 points a game and 3.6 rebounds.

G Jeremy Underwood: A junior that has tremendous speed and excellent court vision. Averages 6.1 points per game and 1.6 rebounds.

I don’t think our Cards will have too much trouble from A&T and I don’t think you’ll see any chance of a 16 over a 1 here. The Cards front-court will be way too talented and advance for this team to defend. Gorgui and Chane should have a field day in the opening game and the new post season beast Montrezl Harrell will have these guys hanging off his arms. Our dynamic duo in the back-court will be licking their chops about this match-up. This game will be like a tennis match with the action going up and down the court. This is a match-up that will be perfect for the Cardinals style of play.

The real challenge will start in the second round on Saturday when the Cards will play the winner of the 8 seed Colorado St vs 9 seed Missouri game. I will have the breakdown of the winner of this game on Friday.

Louisville and Syracuse in the Big East Curtain Call

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I personally don’t think you could ask for a more fitting end to the Big East as we know it to have two great New York rooted coaches going at it on the national stage for the final time in Madison Square Garden. Boeheim was born and raised in Lyons, New York and Pitino, a native of New York City who grew up in the Village of Bayville just miles from where his team will play for their second Big East championship in a row. Both Syracuse and Louisville have been very dominate in the Big East in the last five years and both are very familiar with the bright lights of Madison Square Garden on championship Saturday. Two of the best teams in the league, coached by two of the league’s legendary figures, battling one another to cut down the net for the final time. Syracuse is trying to replicate what the Cards did last year by winning four games in four days to become the Big East champion. Louisville is trying to replicate what Syracuse did in 05/06 and become back-to-back Big East Champions. Syracuse is a five time Big East tourney champ and Louisville has won the prize twice. This will be the third time this season that these teams have faced each other. Cuse won on January 19th 70-68 and Louisville won on March 2nd 58-53. Louisville leads the all-time series against Syracuse 14 to 7 and lead their series in the Big East regular season 7 to 4. These teams have faced each other one other time in the Big East tourney championship game and Louisville won that game 76-66 for their first title.

Syracuse is in the midst of its winningest era ever. The Orange’s recruiting is at an all-time high, with four McDonald’s All-Americans committing in the last three years. And Coach Jim Boeheim is one of the most winning coaches in college basketball at 916 wins. As always, Boeheim has plenty of guys between 6-8 and 6-10 to hold down the back line of the zone, while on the top he has 6-4 Triche and the 6-6 Carter-Williams. And with this much size and agility, the 2-3 is once again a real pain for opposing teams.

Syracuse (26-8, 11-7)
Current RPI-15 Current BPI-7
Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 114.2 Rank 15
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.3 Rank 21
Kenpom Overall Rank: 13

National Statistic Rankings:
-POINTS PER GAME
72.1
64th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
38.7
22nd
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.8
57th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.443
115th
OVERALL

Syracuse’s season averages on offense:
2pt-41.5%, 3pt-29.6%, FT-74.3
Syracuse’s season averages on defense:
Forced TO’s-14.1, Steals-7.8, Blocks-5.7

Projected starting line-up for the Orange:

F James Southerland: He rebounds and defends better than he did as an underclassman, but he still remains something of a one-dimensional offensive player. He’s yet to add a reliable drive to the basket to his outside shooting ability. He has scored 53 points, has 11 rebounds and 5 steals in the Big East tourney.

F C.J. Fair: Is a strong and physical player who is a good rebounder and he is a dependable source of effective and low-foul coverage on the back line of the 2-3 zone. He has 35 points and 20 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

G Brandon Triche: Was clutch in the win over the Cards back in January. If he gets hot he can be a very effective scorer. He is a veteran guard and his team will need him to step up big if they are to beat our Cards again on Saturday night. He has scored 42 points, has 7 rebounds and 11 assist on the Big East tourney.

G Michael Carter-Williams: is the player who replaced Scoop Jardine in the Cuse starting line-up. He is a good ball handler with great court vision. He has great size and length for the top of that 2-3 zone. Very effective defender. He has 20 points, 27 assist and 7 steals in the Big East tourney.

F Rakeem Christmas: Is a good rebounder, shot blocker and defender. He is not as effective on the offensive end of the floor. He is also a player prone to foul trouble. He has 6 points and 5 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

Projected Bench Players:

C Baye Keita: Provides energy, defense and rebounding off the bench. He is another big guy on this team who is not as effective on offense and is also a liability at the free throw line. He has 25 points and 13 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

G Trevor Cooney: Will back up Triche at the off guard spot, allowing the senior guard to rest or move to the point to spell Carter-Williams. He’s got size, strength and athleticism. Gives the Orange a 3 point threat when he’s in the game and can out the ball on the floor and make plays. He has 12 points and 5 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

When you put Syracuse in Madison Square Garden in the Big East tourney they turn into a different team and play out of their minds. And I look for them to play their best game of the season tonight. Therefore it will take one of Louisville’s best efforts to beat them. Peyton and Russ are having outstanding performances so far but really believe that we are going to need Gorgui and Chane to get involved tonight for us to have a chance. Luke Hancock has made some clutch threes this week and that trend will also have to continue. Tonight is going to have to be a team effort. Rebounding and defense is what will decide this one. It will be the toughest ball game of the season and a win here will give the Cards some great momentum heading into the NCAA next week. This one is going to be special folks and I look for this curtain call to go right down to the wire.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Syracuse 65

Cards Will Face Irish in 3rd Straight Big East Semi-Final

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The Cards will face the Notre Dame fighting Irish for the third straight season in the Big East semi-finals. The Cards are 2-0 against the Irish in the Big East tournament. Louisville leads the all-time series with Notre Dame 18 to 12 and the teams are tied in regular season games 5 to 5. This will also be the third time these teams have faced off this season. Notre Dame won the first contest on February 9th in 5 overtimes 104-101. Louisville won the second contest on March 9th 73-57.

Notre Dame is trying to win four games in four days to be the Big East champion. They have already locked themselves a spot in the NCAA tournament but are now looking to cap off their season with a Big East title. Notre Dame might be a little less talented than some Big East teams, but its experienced roster and efficient offense is enough to win big games and be very competitive. Notre Dame returns all five starters for one of the few times in Mike Brey’s 12-year tenure and one of the most talented recruiting classes. Notre Dame’s current senior class needs only one victory to become the program’s all-time winningest class. There is depth, there is talent, there is plenty of drive and plenty of determination. When it comes to taking care of the ball and sharing the ball there isn’t many teams that do it better than this Irish squad. And they can score from anywhere on the floor.

#24 Notre Dame (25-8, 11-7)
Current RPI-41 Current BPI-37
Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 115.3 Rank 13
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 96.2 Rank 96
Kenpom Overall Rank: 33

National Statistic Rankings:
-POINTS PER GAME
70.7
97th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
36.4
97th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
17.3
3rd
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.468
31st
OVERALL

Notre Dame’s Season averages on offense: 2pt-44%, 3pt-35.5%, FT-70.5%
Notre Dame’s Season averages on defense: Forced TO’s- 9.9, Steals- 4.6, Blocks- 3.3

Projected Starting Line-up for the Fighting Irish:

F Jack Cooley: He was named to the All Big East First team and has become a force down low for the Irish. He has 8 points and 15 rebounds in their two Big East tourney wins.

F Tom Knight: The left-hander can do a handful of tasks really well rebound, defend and screen. He has become a more consist player this season as well. He has 26 points and 13 rebounds in their two Big East tourney wins.

G Eric Atkins: He is one of the top guards in the league and does a good job at guiding this offense. He takes good care of the ball and finds the open man. He has 15 points and 7 assist in their two Big East tourney wins.

G Jerian Grant: He was named to the All Big East second team. He is a really confident player that will hit big shots in key moments, and knows how to get the ball to his teammates in scoring position. He has 28 points, 11 assist and 10 rebounds in their two Big East tourney wins.

G/F Pat Connaughton: Is a player with a lot of versatility. He’ll score, pass, guard, take a charge and rebound. He also understands what it’s like to be under the brightest of lights. He’s having a outstanding Big East tournament showing with 39 points and 9 rebounds in their two tourney wins.

Projected Bench Players:

C Garrick Sherman: Is a transfer from Michigan State that will provide back up to Cooley. He performs well against Louisville. He has 20 points and 10 rebounds in their two Big East tourney wins.

F Cameron Biedscheid: He hit the winning lay up to beat the Cards earlier this season but didn’t play against us a few weeks ago due to suspension. He is solid off the bench and has scored 4 points with 2 rebounds in their tourney wins.

F Zach Auguste: Is a freshman that has come in and played the part for Notre Dame like Harrell has played for Louisville. He gives them length and a Big East body. He comes off the bench and gives them solid minutes. He had 2 points and 2 rebounds in their tourney wins.

I wouldn’t want to be any team playing a third game in three days and have to face this Cards defense. Plus the Irish have been in two pretty close games as well. I do think they will make a good game of it for the first 25 or so minutes but then their legs will start to wear causing those jump shots to fall short. The key to this game for the Cards is to replicate the great defensive effort of the Villanova game. Got to extend the D and get out on these Irish shooters. Gorgui took the night off against Nova so he should be ready to have another monster game against the Irish. Similar to what he did against them on senior day. Russ and Peyton are in a zone and they should dominate the back-court battle. We will have fresher legs and more talent on the floor. This game should just be a warm-up game for the finals for the Cardinals. I don’t see this one being much of problem and am looking forward to sending the Irish home from New York. I might finally get over that 5OT deal after that.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 73 Notre Dame 65