March Madness: The Title Game Beak Breakdown Michigan

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Our Cards have won 15 straight games and have made it to the end of the road on their final four journey. They will face a young but very talented Michigan team to cut down the nets Monday night. This is the first title game for the Cardinals in 27 years. Louisville played Michigan in 1977 and won 88-85 and then played again in 1978 winning that game 86-84. Rick Pitino is 0-1 all-time against Michigan playing them in the 1993 Final Four against the Fab 5 and lost 81-78.

There are a few things you can confidently predict about a team coached by John Beilein. They will play slow. They will shoot lots of threes. They will take good care of the ball. Offensive rebounds and free throws will not be weapons. Beilein did a great job with under-the-radar recruits, and we now know what happens when he lands the big dogs. Michigan is one of the youngest teams in the field of 68. Beilein’s eight-man rotation consists of four highly touted freshmen, two sophomores and two juniors. This young group are an exceptional team on the offensive end of the floor but that hasn’t caught up to their defense. They do have a tendency to act their age at times and will often settle for jump shots, not get to the free-throw line and do a poor job of rebounding the ball. With such a wide variance between offensive and defensive efficiency most predicted the Wolverines to be upset in the previous rounds of the NCAA tourney. They have stepped up and done a good job of overcoming their deficiencies to make the national title game. On offense the Wolverines play a hybrid-Princeton offense that utilizes three or four guards at once, relies heavily on the 3-point shot and creating mismatches by setting ball screens. On defense they want to keep opponents off-balance by switching things up. Primarily a man-to-man defensive team, they will mix in some 2-3 zone and 1-3-1 zone at times the latter of which the Wolverines trap out of, causing serious headaches to opposing squads.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 121.7 Rank 1
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 91.6 Rank 32
Kenpom Overall Rank: 5th

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
75.2
27th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
35.1
156th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.3
77th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.484
9th
OVERALL

Michigan season averages on offense:
3pt-38.3%, 2pt-48.3%, FT-70%
Michigan season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 12.1, Blocks- 2.8, Steals- 6.2

Projected Starters:

F Glenn Robinson III FR: Rated a five-star recruit and the No. 18 player in the nation, GRIII is an athletic wing whose best traits are attacking the basket on offense and the glass on defense. He adds versatility to Beilein’s lineup, and he can slide over to the power forward spot when the Wolverines want to get quicker and more up-tempo. He has 64 points and 31 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Mitch McGary FR: He may be the best recruit in Beilein’s tenure at Michigan. ESPN rated him a four-star prospect, the No. 5 power forward and the No. 27 player in the class of 2012. He’s a do-whatever-it-takes player who isn’t afraid to mix it up or dive after a loose ball. Defensively, he can use his wide-bodied frame to box out and keep opponents from the lane while being an effective shot-alterer. His offensive strengths now are as a left-handed, back-to-the-bucket scorer. He has 80 points and 58 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Tim Hardaway Jr. JR: He is a strong rebounder from the guard spot and possesses a similar ability as Burke in slashing to the basket, albeit with not as quick a first step or as good of ball-handling skills. He loves to jack up the 3 ball and sometimes takes plays off on defense. He has 67 points and 21 rebounds.

G Trey Burke SOPH: With good height and quickness, Burke can penetrate the lane off the bounce and look to either score or distribute the ball. He’s equally adept at spotting up for a 3-pointer, and he can pull up for midrange jumpers while attacking the basket in the half-court or on the break. He has 69 points, 35 assist and 17 rebounds.

G Nik Stauskas FR: The lengthy Canadian is a top-100 recruit Beilein called “the ultimate gym rat” who plays the game with passion and energy. He’s a big two guard and an outstanding shooter with range, but is also one of those shooters who has the ability to play off the bounce. He really sees the floor as well. He has 49 in the NCAA tourney and went 6-6 from the 3 point line against Florida in the regional final.

Bench Players:

F Jordan Morgan JR: Defensively, he’s more adept at keeping opposing bigs from moving toward the basket than he is at altering their shots. Morgan continued to develop around the rim as a scorer, attacking the bucket for dunks or layups. He is not very affective in the short to midrange game. He has 5 points and 8 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Jon Horford SOPH: He is former Florida player Al Horford’s brother. Like his brother Al when he played for Florida, Jon Horford oozes potential between his lean, long frame and ability to get off the floor quickly. It translates to shot blocking, rebounding and pass deflections. He has 12 points and 11 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Spike Albrecht FR: He has a very high basketball IQ and is a true point guard whose best attributes are guiding an offense and setting up his teammates. He has 19 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist in the NCAA tourney.

G Caris LeVert FR: In Levert, the Wolverines get a lithe but versatile player who can play any of the three guard spots. He had his most productive game of the NCAA tourney against Syracuse where he scored 8 points, had 4 rebounds and 2 assist.

The national championship game is now set and it will feature the nations best offense versus the nations best defense according to Kenpom. But I feel like this game is more about Louisville’s multidimensional attack against a Michigan team that relies heavily on one aspect of their game to be successful. And I think if the Cards can get them to act their age whether that means; beating up the Wolverines’ four-guard lineup on the backboards, making Robinson III disappear, or getting one of the young Michigan stars into foul trouble they will be cutting down the nets.

For whatever reason four of the Cards most important players took the night off in the game against Wichita State. I think they were just a victim of those high emotions and with that survive and advance game out of the way these guys will be on a mission Monday night. I think this is a very good Michigan team but the 2012-13 Louisville Cardinals are the team of destiny and they are not going to be denied. I’ve been waiting 27 years to watch my favorite team climb those ladders and will finally get to see it on Monday night. Cards are gonna get it done.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Michigan 73