In a conference like the ACC there is never a point in the season where it gets any easier, and it certainly isn’t going to get any easier for the Cardinals on Saturday night. It will be a battle of two teams who have a similar defensive philosophy and two top ACC teams still going for the conference crown. The Cardinals are 3-5 all-time vs. the Cavaliers in a series that dates back to 1923-24. This is the first time they’ve played each other since Feb. 17, 1990, when the Cardinals defeated the Cavaliers 72-56 in Charlottesville. Everick Sullivan had 22 points and Felton Spencer had 11 points for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 1-2 against the Cavaliers in Charlottesville and the teams are meeting for the first time at John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia is currently first in the ACC at 8-1, while Louisville is third at 7-2. Virginia head coach Tony Bennett and Virginia Center Mike Tobey, along with Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell helped Team USA to the gold medal at the 2013 FIBA U19 World Championship in Prague, Czech Republic.

COACH PITINO TALKS ABOUT VIRGINIA

The 3rd ranked Virginia Cavaliers improved to 20-1 on the season after defeating the 12th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels, 75-64, this past Monday. Virginia is ranked 3rd in the RPI Standings and has played the 7th ranked SOS. On the season, the Cavaliers have been led by Justin Anderson (13.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 apg), Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg), Anthony Gill (11.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Mike Tobey (7.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg), and Darion Atkins (7.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg). Virginia is averaging 68.3 ppg (ranked 152nd) on 47.2% shooting (ranked 36th). As of Feb. 4, the Cavaliers rank in the top five nationally in eight defensive categories: points per game (1st), assists per game (2nd), rebounds per game (2nd), true shooting percentage (2nd), field goal percentage (3rd), points per possession (3rd), possessions per 40 minutes (3rd) and effective shooting percentage (4th). As of Feb. 4, the Cavaliers rank in the top 10 nationally in three offensive categories: assist-to-turnover ratio (6th), defensive rebound percentage (7th) and rebound percentage (7th). Virginia has limited its opponents to 47 fast break points, Leading the nation in scoring defense allowing 50.8 points per game, Virginia has held three teams under 30 points for the game this year.

Not only will the Cardinals be challenged more on the defensive end than in any game this season they will face the best post team they have faced all season. Virginia is averaging 31 points in the paint, while limiting its opponents to 21 points per game in the paint. Post players Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey and Darion Atkins are each shooting 51 percent or better, and are averaging 18 rebounds. Virginia has out-rebounded its opponent in 17 of 21 games, and is second in the ACC with a +9.5 rebounding margin. Gill, Tobey, Atkins and Isaiah Wilkins have combined for 60 blocked shots.

2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #2
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-86.1 ranks 2nd
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-118.4 ranks 5th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Virginia winning the game 63-54 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have a 43-10 record in February over the last eight years (since 2007-08), winning their last 12 straight in the month. It will be a very tall task to keep that streak alive on Saturday night. The Cardinals have been led by the core four Terry Rozier (18.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.1 spg), Montrezl Harrell (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.1 apg), Chris Jones (13.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg 4.0 apg), and Wayne Blackshear (11.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg). The Cardinals have been successful even though the 5 spot with Chinanu Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang is only averaging 3.3 points and 5.1 rebounds a game this season. I don’t think they can survive on Saturday night without a better effort from these two guys. The three biggest contributors off the bench are Anton Gill, Shaqquan Aaron, and Quentin Snider. Combined they are averaging 2.3 points and 1.06 rebounds a game this season. I would like to see one of these guys have a breakout game against the Cavaliers. In its five ACC road games this season, Louisville has shot a collective 53.2% from the field (141-of-265).

Louisville had a nice road victory against Miami and they did an excellent job limiting Miami’s biggest weapons, Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan. They will have to do the same thing against Virginia’s two top guys Justin Anderson, and Malcolm Brogdon. This game is going to be decided by the team who wins the defensive battle as both teams have been prone to going on long streaks of no offensive. I think whatever team has that surprise performance or stand-out offensive player will come out on the winning end. Hopefully that will be the Cardinals.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 60 Virginia 55