After a tough home loss to Cuse the Cards (16-2, 4-1 Big East) must regroup as they go back on the road in Big East play to face Villanova (11-7, 2-3 Big East). They have lost three straight after a seven-game winning streak. This game will be the first of three games that the Wildcats have scheduled to play at the Wells Fargo Center.

Jay Wright is terrific and has been that for Villanova, which is why the Wildcats’ drop in the Big East is a little surprising. They have had a rough go of it the past couple of seasons and it doesn’t look like that is gonna change this season. Their 69 points per game being a deceiving statistic. The Wildcats barely top 40 percent from the field and turn the ball over 16 times per game. They have turned the ball over more than their opponents in the past 5 games. Add in having just over 12 assists per game, and you get a team whose offense can leave a lot to be desired at times. They are a decent defensive team and when they hold opponents under 70 points they are 9-2 on the season. However if they don’t make up for their poor offense with their defense and let opponents score over 70 points they are 3-5 on the season. They have recorded fewer steals than their opponents for the past 4 games. The Wildcats have a positive rebounding margin on the season, although they have been out rebounded in their last two losses. This is a inexperienced group and Villanova’s problem offensively isn’t complicated. The Wildcats don’t have a “go-to” guy. Jay Wright’s roster is full of complimentary parts, but lacks someone you can give the ball to in big spots and expect to come through. They rank nationally 137th in points per game at 69, 84th in rebounding per game at 38, 234th in assist per game at 12 and 291st in field goal percentage per game at 40. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense 102.3 ranked 128th and on defense 93.4 ranked 72. He has them ranked 89 overall. Their current RPI is 69 and they are ranked 11th in the Big East.

In-conference offense: 3pt-29%, 2pt-45%, FT-73%
In-conference defense: Steals-5.8pg, Blocks-4.4pg, Turnovers-13pg

Coach Jay Wright: “I just think it’s a team that is inexperienced, has a lot to learn,” “I think they’re going to be good. I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but I think they’re going to be good. But we’re not good enough right now.”

The Wildcat Players:

– Projected Starters

Mouphtaou Yarou SR (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg) 6-10 F is their most experienced player, has had a down year. The Wildcats needed him to be their best player, or at least close to it, but his scoring, rebounding and field goal numbers are all down appreciably from last season. He has scored 140 points this season, grabbed 106 rebounds and has 18 assist in 428 minutes of play.

Daniel Ochefu FR (4.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg) 6-11 F was a top 100 prospect and is touted for his shot blocking and rebounding. He has some promising offensive skills but is adjusting to the physical nature of the Big East. He has scored 76 points this season, grabbed 88 rebounds and has 16 blocked shots in 328 minutes of play.

James Bell JR (9.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg) 6-6 G has showed flashes of being a pretty reliable scorer and defender but not enough to consider him a star in the making. Also has a hard time staying out of foul trouble. He has scored 165 points this season, grabbed 79 rebounds and 27 assist in 497 minutes of play.

Darrun Hilliard SOPH (9.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg) 6-6 G has had his big moments in a few of Nova’s games this season but the problem has been his consistency to perform every night. Especially in a rugged Big East haul. He’s a pretty good defender and has 28 steals on the season. He has scored 179 points this season, grabbed 53 rebounds, and has 21 assist in 512 minutes of play.

Ryan Arcidiacono FR (11.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg) 6-3 G was a top-100 recruit as a point guard out of Langhorne, Pennsylvania, and according to Coach Wright has “the opportunity to become the next great Villanova guard.” He has scored 209 points this season, grabbed 33 rebounds and has 60 assist in 591 minutes of play.

– Bench

Maurice Sutton SR (5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg) 6-11 F/C is a fifth-year senior, will spend more time in the low post. The team’s best shot-blocker. He has scored 95 points this season, grabbed 77 rebounds and has 28 blocked shots in 267 minutes of play.

Tony Chennault JR (3.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg) 6-2 G is a Wake Forest transfer who was the Demon Deacons’ starter at point guard last season, Chennault was granted a hardship waiver by the NCAA and will be eligible immediately. He is a very solid player for Nova and gives them leadership when on the court. He has scored 63 points this season, grabbed 31 rebounds and has 29 assist in 318 minutes of play.

JayVaughn Pinkston SOPH (13.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) 6-7 F is Nova’s best offensive player. It really isn’t close in my opinion. Pinkston is the only player on the team who can consistently get his own shot and get to the foul line. He’s attempted 50 more free throws than any other Wildcat and he’s fifth on the team in minutes played. Foul trouble and defensive lapses can lead to Pinkston sitting on the bench. And is a big reason he doesn’t start. He has scored 240 points this season, grabbed 80 rebounds and has 28 assist in 430 minutes of play.

Achraf Yacoubou SOPH (4.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg) 6-4 G is a solid player that will provide some offensive spark of the bench. He loves the 3 point shot and is making 39% of attempts. He has scored 77 points this season, grabbed 64 rebounds and has 11 assist in 273 minutes of play.

Mislav Brzoja FR (0.3 ppg, 0.4 rpg) 6-4 G spent his summer averaging 15.0 points in helping lead Croatia to victory in the under-18 European Championships. Brzoja gives the Wildcats another 3-point threat but only plays sparingly. He has only logged 26 minutes this season.

This Wildcat team seems to be in rebuild mode and that is evident by their inconsistent play so far. They find themselves staring at the possibility of a potential six or 7 game losing streak that will start with a rough game against our Cards. I really do not like the thoughts of playing a Big East team with their backs against the wall, especially on the road. However, our Cards specialize in forcing turnovers, so that could be a particularly bad matchup for them. And I really don’t think our guys are very happy either after Saturday. Don’t think they’ll want to lose focus and drop a game to a team that will probably struggle to finish .500 in the Big East. I’ll give them their due and say they are capable of putting together a great game. But this years Cardinal team just isn’t losing ones like this even if they get Nova’s best shot.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Villanova 69