Two legendary coaches in Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo along with two elite college basketball teams in Louisville and Michigan State we’ve seen some great battles between these coaches and teams in the NCAA Tourney in recent years. With the latest coming a few months ago in the Elite 8 when Michigan State evened up the tourney series to 2-2 when they beat our Cards in overtime to advance to the Final Four. We have grown accustomed to the possibility of these teams facing off in the NCAA Tournament every year, but now these teams are headed for an early match-up in the Big 10/ACC challenge tonight at 7:15pm on ESPN.

The Louisville vs Michigan State head to head record stands at 5-4. These teams first met in 1959 in the Mideast Regional final with the Cards winning that game 88-81 with the most recent game back on March 29th in the Regional Finals where Michigan State prevailed in Overtime 76-70 against the Cards.

It has become a staple of Izzo and Michigan State to play these early tough non-conference games and by seasons end, this bunch is toughened up and ready to make a deep run in the win-or-go-home Big Dance. The names change, but the recipe for success remains the same for the Spartans excellent coaching, balanced scoring, relentless rebounding and very solid defense. They usually do a pretty good job at guarding the 3 point line and that will be a factor in tonight’s game. Izzo’s offense features three starters who average in double figures (Valentine, Forbes and Davis) and another who is close to doing so (Bess). If they miss their first shooting try, everyone pounds the glass for the Spartans. Michigan State teams are always very strong and physical and this allows them to implement the two annual tenets of Izzo Ball: intense man-to-man defense and relentless rebounding. The 2015 Spartans are stout defenders (39% field goal percentage allowed) and great glass-eaters (44 per game).

STARTING LINE-UP
Denzel Valentine (19.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
Bryn Forbes (11.4 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Deyonta Davis (10.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
Javon Bess (8.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
Matt Costello (7.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG)

KENPOM RANKS
Offensive Adjustment Efficiency 115.1 ranked #6
Defensive Adjustment Efficiency 93.7 ranked #20
Kenpom Game Prediction: Louisville 65 Mich St. 70

Louisville currently has the 3rd ranked team in field goal defense and the 1st ranked team in scoring defense. I think these will play a big part in this game tonight along with offensive and defensive rebounding. They hit the broads hard and if we could neutralize that strength its half the battle. And if the Cardinals can get some of the key MSU starters into foul difficulty the odds of beating them improve because their bench is not that great.

We are going to need a big night out of our perimeter players and need Quentin, Damion, and Trey to hit some shots. I think Mango and Nanu will also need to have very solid nights and need to really hit the boards and play good defense inside the post. Nanu had foul problems the last time out and that would be a killer if he has to sit for a long period of time tonight. Mango was the MVP Saturday night and I hope some of the inspiring play can work its way into the game tonight. I know he is thinking about that game back in March and wants a little payback.

The way our offense has been trending upward lately is a very positive sign heading into this tough early season game. For the first time in a long time this Louisville team can score in a variety of ways and from every position on the court. Their 33.6 point average margin of victory is the largest through the first 5 games of any season in school history. And as usual the defense is legit. Folks taking into account all these factors I like the Cardinals chances tonight.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Mich St. 75

We all know how most of these early games go during the first stretch of the basketball season. These smaller schools are going on the road to play in big venues to get a hefty paycheck, take a loss and go home. That’s not going to be the case when North Florida comes to the Yum Center on Saturday. The Cardinals play the North Florida Ospreys in the Cards’ second game of the Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Invitational, a five-team, round-robin event. Louisville beat Hartford in the first round 87-52 on Tuesday. The Cardinals are 2-0 on the early season while North Florida is 3-0 with a big in over Illinois already on the resume.

North Florida will bring one of the most high powered offenses in the country to Louisville this weekend. They lead the nation in three-pointers per game (16.0), are seventh in assists-to-turnovers ratio (2.35) and ranks eighth in three-point percentage (.480). The Ospreys are a talented and dangerous team thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a roster full of shooters. The Ospreys can shoot the basketball from all over the floor. Their system allows for anyone to pull the trigger when open, and with five players shooting over 40 percent from deep, everyone must be accounted for. They live and die by the 3-point shot and so far this season they’ve lived pretty well.

STARTING LINEUP
Dallas Moore (24.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
Trent Mackey (18.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
Chris Davenport (15.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG)
Beau Beech (14.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
Nick Malonga (6.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG)

Key Bench Players
Demarcus Daniels (13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG)
Aaron Bodager (4.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
Osborn Blount (2.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG)

Kenpom Ranks
Overall Rank 95th
ADJ Offense Efficiency 108.7 ranked 36th
ADJ Defensive Efficiency 103.1 ranked 224th
Game Prediction: Louisville 82 North Florida 70, He gives them a 13% chance to win

Their best player is Dallas Moore. The 6-foot-1 guard can shoot it from deep (55.6 percent) or in close (56 percent). The lefty is very quick with the ball in his hands and gets to the rim with relative ease. He’s also very good in transition. Another guy who could be big for them on Saturday is Demarcus Daniels. He’s scored a combined 40 points leading up to this game on Saturday and grabbed 27 rebounds. Daniels is long, athletic and can score on the block as well as stroke it from deep (50 percent). If North Florida gets a great effort out of this guy on Saturday their chances for an upset improve drastically.

As mentioned above the Ospreys have a well balanced offensive attack, as five players average more than 13 points per game and shoot at least 50 percent from the field. North Florida plays at a quicker tempo than most (61st nationally) and will shoot early in the shot clock. The Ospreys have an equal opportunity offense that can be very hard to defend. On defense North Florida plays a traditional man-to-man defense and will switch on ball screens. Their guards play decent perimeter defense (44 percent shooting). They don’t force many turnovers, relying instead on fundamental defensive principles.

In order for Louisville to keep the upset minded Ospreys from achieving their goal they must limit them to one-and-done possessions and extend their defense. Giving a great shooting team extra possessions is alwyas a bad idea, so owning the defensive glass is the first step. Playing a traditional zone likely would be a poor decision, but a team like Louisville that plays that tough match-up zone defense and has length could pose issues for the Ospreys.

Our Cardinals have won 36 consecutive home games in November spanning the last 24 years, including a perfect 23-0 record in the KFC Yum Center and I am confident they’ll make that 37 straight on Saturday. The Ospreys who are a bird of prey will be a great challenge to this group and one they need this early to gauge just how well they are coming along. The Cardinals rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage defense (.257). We’ll see how that holds up. I just think the Cardinals have too many offensive weapons themselves and are too tall and talented to lose this one. Chinanu Onuaku scored a career-high 18 points against Hartford, adding nine rebounds and two blocked shots. Jaylen Johnson also set career bests in points (nine) and rebounds (eight) vs. Hartford. I look for these guys to be big again on Saturday. Quentin Snider has also been great. His 10 assists with just one turnover this season ranks him fourth in the nation in assists-to-turnover ratio. He matched a career-high with six assists against Hartford. He will also be big on Saturday. For as good as they are on offense the Ospreys aren’t really great defensively and that will be their down fall in this one.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 North Florida 69

There are just two spots left in the Final Four in Indy next weekend. Our Cardinals have defied all odds and will be playing for one of those spots. They will be playing against a team that has traveled a similar path and defied their own odds. The Cards and Michigan State will play for the ninth time in their history. The Cards lead the series 5-3. Ironically the last time these teams played back in 2012 the narrative was similar. The Cardinals were on an improbable run in the NCAA and beat 1 seed Michigan State 57-44 in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite Eight and ultimately the Final Four.

This group isn’t as good as that 2012 Michigan State team but even though the names have change, their recipe for success remains the same. They have a great coach, a balanced scoring attack, and relentless team rebounding and intense man-to-man defense. They are also really good at defending the perimeter.

The Spartans have won seven of their last eight games. On the season they are averaging 71.2 points on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% from the three. Izzo has a seasoned rotation led by two seniors Branden Dawson (11.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG), and Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.4 APG). They are followed by three solid juniors in Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Bryn Forbes (9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Matt Costello (7.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG). Dawson is a beast and just may be the best player on the team. Forbes shooting 42.8%, Valentine shooting 41.6% and Trice shooting 37.4% are all very big threats from deep, and all have been hot during their tournament run. The Spartans have four players averaging at least 8.6 points.

As I mentioned above Izzo’s teams play a sticky man-to-man defense that has given up 63 or fewer points in four of its last five games. They are allowing teams to shoot 39.4% from the field and 31.5% from the three-point line. They will crash the defensive boards hard and are ranked in the top 20 in the nation.

Michigan State’s NATIONAL RANKS

Michigan State’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #15
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-95.5 ranks 47th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.9 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Michigan State winning the game 65-64 based on his indexes.

There may not be a player left in the tournament that has had a bigger come up, or that has been bigger for his team than Terry Rozier. This kid had 17 points and 14 rebounds against NC State. His ability to take over on the offensive end and ability to rebound will be huge against the Spartans.

And you won’t find a player that works harder than Montrezl Harrell has during this tournament. He has played 114 minutes, scored 46 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. There’s not a player on the other side that will get after it like Montrezl will on Sunday afternoon.

What about that senior Wayne Blackshear who has now played in more NCAA games than any other player in Louisville’s history. His team has followed his lead and his determination and will to win has rubbed off. He is the guy that got his teammates to believe.

Or the local kid Quentin Snider who dreamed of playing for the hometown Cards as a kid and now has become a big reason they are in the Elite Eight. He hit clutch free-throws in his first NCAA game and played 37 minutes without a turnover in his first Sweet 16 game. He is a stone cold basketball player and doesn’t flinch under pressure. He is unreal.

Guys like Mango whose defense has been unreal, and Gill who comes off the bench to take over the game…

Louisville 70 Michigan State 63

Just a few weeks ago a lot of Cardinal fans as well as the talking heads were wondering if Louisville would make it past the first round game of the NCAA Tournament. Now here they are in the Sweet 16 and just two wins away from another Final Four. The Cardinals overcame a “Big” obstacle in their first round game against UC Irvine and then just completely overwhelmed a UNI team that most were saying had a legit chance to make it to a Final Four themselves. Now awaiting the Cardinals is conference foe NC State.

The Wolfpack has made a great run through the tournament after having a bi-polar type of season. Guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament and there hasn’t been a better trio during March Madness than that of Ralston Turner (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG), Trevor Lacey (16.1 PPG, 4.5 PPG) and Anthony Barber (11.8 PPG, 3.8 APG). Mark Gottfried runs his offense strictly through these three guards. Lacey is the dynamic scorer, Turner is a sharp shooter and Cat Barber is a lane slashing assist machine. These three guys complement each other very nicely. They are a big reason why NC State is in the Sweet 16.

The rest of their team hasn’t been too shabby either. The Wolfpack is averaging 70 points a game shooting 43.7% from the field, and 35.4% from the three. As I mentioned above the guards make this team go but this NC State team is well balanced. They have shooters and big men who can finish around the rim. Every player has a defined role on this team. Turner, Lacey and Barber lead in scoring but they are followed by Lennard Freeman (3.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG), Abdul-Malik Abu (5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG), C BeeJay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Kyle Washington (7.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG), and Caleb Martin (5.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG). On the offensive end of the floor all these guys can handle the ball and each of them are capable of creating their own scoring opportunities. They are a very tough group to guard when they have their mojo going. Their offense is the reason they have won five of their last six games.

The Wolfpack defense is also very adequate. They play an aggressive man-to-man with a very fast Barber hounding the back-court and bigs Anya and Abu banging in the front-court. They are allowing 65.5 points a game, allowing 40% shooting from the field and 33.1% from the three. They have given up 68 or less points in seven of their last 10 games.

NC State’s NATIONAL RANKS

NC State’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #31
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-97.7 ranks 81st
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-111.6 ranks 27th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 66-63 based on his indexes.

Here we are Cardinal fans again just two games away from another Final Four. This group has bonded together through much adversity and find themselves on the cusp of adding their own lore to a great Cardinal tradition. At the beginning of March Madness I wrote an article listing my 5 keys to winning a NCAA Title. When I wrote it there were doubts about this group of Cardinals possessing those keys, but as we have progressed over the last couple of weeks I am seeing some of these things.

A Cause: I don’t know if they have one common cause but this group wants to win for one another now. I have seen a very cohesive group over the last couple of weeks.

A Great Leader: Wayne Blackshear has taken on this role. He has taken this team on his shoulders and it was his will to win that helped them get past UC Irvine. Wayne wants to keep adding to his legacy as a Cardinal and he’s not ready for it to end. Terry Rozier has also taken his game to another level.

The Freshman or Player that comes out of nowhere: Quentin Snider has come out of nowhere. This kid has the moxie of a grizzled vet and he hasn’t even seen a full season of playing time. Those free-throws he hit in that first game were huge and he keeps getting better every time out.

A Bench: This has been the biggest question mark all season but even this has started to evolve over the last couple of weeks. Onuaku, Johnson, Anas, Aaron, Gill and Levitch were able to come in against UNI to give the starters a breather and they provided solid minutes. Still a long way to go but it’s coming around.

A Coach: Other than a potential match-up in the Elite Eight with Tom Izzo we will have an advantage the rest of the way if we kept winning. Nobody does March better and nobody gets their team ready faster in these quick turnaround games than Coach Pitino. He’ll have the game plan. His team will just have to execute it.

I’m not saying this team is going to win a championship, but we are closer to looking like a team that could. And this group has come a long way especially over the last couple of weeks. A very tough game waits on Friday night. To beat the Wolfpack they have to stop Lacey. That is the top priority. Doing that forces Turner and Barber to shoulder more of the load than they would normally feel comfortable doing. This is an average team if their guards aren’t controlling the game. And this team will get flustered quickly if the Cards come out and lock them down right from the start.

Louisville 68 NC State 64

Unfortunately I remember it like it was yesterday sitting in my living room in a state of shock after the 4 seed Cardinals had just lost to in-state 13 seed Morehead State in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. They had the Rodmanesque future pro in Kenneth Faried who scored 12 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. It wasn’t one of the better sports moments for Louisville fans.

On Friday I had flashbacks of that unpleasant moment when the 4 seed Cardinals were in a dog fight with 13 seed UC Irvine in their first round game in the NCAA Tourney. The Anteaters had the Manute Boesque future pro in Mamadou NDiaye who bullied the Cardinals around in the post and scored 12 points.

Friday things could have been very reminiscent of that game back in 2011, but instead the Cardinals pulled this one out thanks to the Game day heroics of freshman Quentin Snider and senior Wayne Blackshear and now they move on to the third round on Sunday to face the University of Northern Iowa.

The University of Northern Iowa is one of those teams that any college basketball fan loves to cheer for unless they are playing against your school. I cheered for them on their run in 2010 when they upset Kansas. And this team is very reminiscent of that group. They have a group of assassins when it comes to the three point shot and they bring four guys off their bench that shoot 40% from deep. They aren’t going to come at you with one or two guys. They come at you with 10. They play true team ball.

They are averaging 66 points a game shooting 48.2% from the field and 40% from the three. They are led by their do everything star Seth Tuttle who averages 15.3 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. The Wooden Award finalist leads the Panthers in points, rebounds, assists and blocks. The rest of their starting line-ups are as follows. Marvin Singleton (5.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Jeremy Morgan (5.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG), Matt Bohannon (5.6 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Deon Mitchell (7.3 PPG, 2.4 APG). They also have three other players averaging between 5.0 and 7.8 PPG. This group is very deliberate and they’ll milk the shot clock on every possession waiting for a moment to take the best shot.

On the defensive end of the floor they aren’t going to wow you with their athleticism or their speed, but they will impress you with their attention to detail and fundamentals. They do a great job of keeping a body between the ball and the basket. They finished the season ranked 4th in the country in points allowed giving up only 54.3 points a game. Having that deep bench works more towards an advantage on this end of the floor and they keep fresh bodies coming at you in waves.

NATIONAL RANKS

Northern Iowa’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #9
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-93.3 ranks 19th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.6 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Northern Iowa winning the game 59-57 based on his indexes.

I wouldn’t necessarily call them an unlikely cast of big performers for Louisville but I think it was surprising to some that Quentin and Wayne stepped up on the offensive end and that Mango stepped up on the defensive end on Friday. It is going to take that and then some on Sunday night for the Cardinals to advance to the Sweet 16 for the 21st time (4th straight). To win a game like this it’s also going to take a big effort from guys like Montrezl and Terry. They can’t have a sub-par performance in this one. They will have an athletic advantage and they’ll need to utilize it on both ends of the floor. The bench guys will also need to produce some solid minutes to try and keep up with their depth advantage.

My keys to this game are for Louisville to dominate the boards and to utilize the press effectively. UNI doesn’t have many weaknesses but they are ranked 322nd out of 350 Division I teams in rebounding. When they have struggled this season they have gotten killed on the glass. Rebounding has been Louisville’s strength this season and has been the one constant. I also think the Cards will have to be effective in both their full and half court press. If they can get into the legs of their shooters it will hurt their accuracy.

This is going to be a very tough game, but the Cards hold one distinct advantage. Having a Hall of Fame coach who has seen it all is huge in these quick turnaround games of the tourney. He will have a blueprint to solve the UNI riddle. He will just need his team to follow that blueprint. The Cardinals are going to have to beat the Panthers because UNI is a team that isn’t going to beat themselves.

Louisville 60 UNI 51

It was an exciting first day of the NCAA Tournament and some teams extended the dance while some took their final bow. The wait is over and we’ll get to watch our Cardinals take to the floor for their first game in the Tourney against the UC Irvine Anteaters. These teams have never met on the hardwood. Our Cardinals will make their 41st appearance in the Tourney which ranks 5th nationally and it will be their 9th straight trip. The Anteaters will be making their very first appearance in the big dance.

UC Irvine head coach Russell Turner is a young coach who is just starting to create his legacy in the college basketball ranks. He like a lot of young coaches has to be very innovative and creative to be competitive in this challenging landscape. Struggling to get recruits over some of the other West Coast schools Tuner got creative in his approach and started reaching out internationally. As a result he has himself a pretty scrappy basketball team led by Will Nelson from England and Mamadou Ndiaye from Senegal.

Captured in the March Madness I found myself up late last week watching the Big West Conference Tournament. I even found myself cheering for the Anteaters to win. Watching them in the semi-finals and finals I learned a few things about this team. They play hard for their coach, they don’t quit and they’ll play defense on every trip on that end of the floor.

Using their size and that solid defense UC Irvine is 21-12 this season and won the Big West Conference Tournament. They were rewarded a 13th seed for their efforts. They are averaging 67.9 points a game shooting 46.1% from the field and 39% from the three. Will Davis II leads the Anteaters averaging 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds per game and he had a double-double in all of the conference tourney games. Luke Nelson is averaging 10.5 points. Mamadou Ndiaye is averaging 10.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and has had as many as 6 blocks in a game this season. Alex Young is averaging 9.6 points. Travis Souza is an excellent three point shooter and he is 47.4% from long range this season. UC Irvine shares the ball very well. All five starters’ average between 12.9 and 7.4 points per game, and the team finished the season 65th nationally in assists per game.

Defensively their perimeter defenders can be very aggressive, they really protect the rim and they make it really hard for opponents to score in the paint. They finished the season ranked 25th in the country in blocks per game. They are allowing 62.3 points and their opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field.

UC Irvine National Ranks:

UC Irvine’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #98
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-98.4 ranks 92nd
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-134.7 ranks 135th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 65-59 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have been led by the same cast of players this season. The team goes as Terry, Montrezl and Wayne go. Here towards the end of the season we have started to see a supporting cast emerge in Quentin, Chinanu, and Mango. Word is that Jaylen Johnson has been really solid in practice over the last couple of weeks and that the coaching staff expect a big tournament from him. As I said when the ACC Tourney started it’s going to take more scoring from the bench guys to make a run and the time is now for it to happen.

I think creating turnovers and attacking the basket are going to be the keys in getting the victory in the first round. And with the way Irvine plays defense on the interior our guys are going to have to hit some jump shots.

Louisville 69 UC Irvine 57

Saturday is set up to be a very special day in the KFC Yum Center. Not only are we celebrating the efforts of two great players in Montrezl Harrell and Wayne Blackshear, but there is also a pretty good team in #2 Virginia coming to town. This will be another opportunity to get a great quality win before the selection and seeding process next weekend. Our Cardinals will also ultimately be playing for a double bye in next week’s ACC Tournament. Louisville trails Virginia 3-6 in this series, but has won two of the last three meetings. Virginia prevailed 52-47 in Charlottesville earlier this season.

Video | Rick Pitino previews Virginia game

The Cavaliers will be looking to extend their nine-game winning streak. Virginia is averaging 65.8 points on 46.3% shooting from the field, and 36% shooting from the three. They are being led this season by Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg), Anthony Gill (11.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 0.9 apg), Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg), Darion Atkins (7.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg), and London Perrantes (6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.7 apg). The Cavaliers are 13-0 on the road this season.

Defensively, Virginia is allowing 50 points a game, 35.5% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from the three. They have given up 60 or less points in eight straight games. They have held six teams under 40 points this season.

Virginia’s 2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

Virginia’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #3
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-84.2 ranks 1st
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-112.4 ranks 28th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Virginia winning the game 56-53 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals need a big win after splitting their last eight games. They are averaging 69.9 points on 43% shooting from the field, and 30.7% from the three. Terry Rozier is averaging 17.2 points and 2.8 assists; Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.6 points and 9.3 rebounds. Wayne Blackshear is the third double-digit scorer averaging 10.7 points and 4.6 rebounds. Chinanu Onuaku has been gradually improving all season and is grabbing five rebounds a game. Despite an encouraging effort in the FSU game the Louisville bench was held scoreless against Notre Dame. The 5 spot combined for 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 turnovers and 11 fouls vs. Notre Dame.

Mango, Shaqquan, Anas, Jaylen and Anton have to become a bigger part of the Louisville team over the next couple of weeks. It’s imperative to this team’s tournament success in my opinion. We may see these guys play more due to the recent news that Coach Pitino plans on changing his system especially on the defensive end. The main reason some of the younger guys haven’t seen the floor was due to their defensive execution. One would think a simplified defense would mean more playing time. Currently the Louisville defense is allowing 59.3 points a game, 38.5% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from the three. They have given up 59 or less points in six of their last 10 games.

It’s always a good thing when you can get a game like this to end a regular season. A quality opponent can get a team prepared for the tough weeks ahead as tournament play starts. This Virginia team is a very good opponent to close the season with and they do a lot of things well. They will challenge our Cardinals in every facet of the game on Saturday and we’ll see if the Cards can start trending upward.

I do think our guys answer the call on Senior Day as they will be riding a wave of emotions from the festivities. I also think these guys will respond to the “system change” that Coach Pitino has made. I think they will play a little looser and will play harder not having to worry about making mistakes on the defensive end of the floor. I’m looking forward to being right in the middle of it all. Going to be a great day! Go Cards!

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 60 Virginia 53

It’s hard to believe that we have almost reached the end of another Cardinal basketball season. There are two games left and both are at the Yum Center. Both games will be great teams. First up is Notre Dame on Wednesday night. They are predicting a winter storm for our area but the action will be hot when the Irish and Cardinals renew their rivalry. Louisville leads this series 20-12 and has won 15 of the last 20. But here’s the real story in this rivalry. Eight of the last 15 games have been decided in overtime. I know you remember some of these crazy back and forth battles and you can almost bet that we’ll see another one on Wednesday night. At least this one will be a 7:00 start so we won’t get to bed that late. Both of these teams have secured their spots in the tourney and this game will be about bettering their seeds and getting that double bye in Greensboro next week. Notre Dame is 12-4 in conference play and ranked 3rd in the ACC. Louisville is 11-6 in conference play ranked 4th in the ACC.

COACH PITINO TALKS ABOUT NOTRE DAME GAME

Notre Dame has had eight days to prepare for this one since losing their last game against Syracuse. They have won three of their last four. They are averaging 79 points a game on 50.8% shooting from the field, and 39.4% shooting from the three. They are averaging 8.6 three-pointers a game. They are led by Jerian Grant (16.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 6.6 apg), Pat Connaughton (13.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.5 agp) Zach Auguste (12.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.7 apg), Demetrius Jackson (12.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.9 apg), and Steve Vasturia (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.8 apg). Five Fighting Irish players are averaging at least 9.2 points per game this season.

On defense Notre Dame is holding their opponents to an average of 65.4 points a game on 42.5% shooting. The Fighting Irish average 6.8 steals a game and have a turnover margin of 2.1. Notre Dame is ranked 27th in the RPI Standings and has played the 126th ranked SOS.

Notre Dame’s 2014-15 Overall Rankings Offense | Defense

Notre Dame 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #18
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-101.2 ranks 150th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-120.1 ranks 4th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 71-66 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have won three straight heading into this battle with Notre Dame. They are averaging 70 points a game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from the three. The Cards are led by the big three Terry Rozier (17.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.7 apg), Montrezl Harrell (15.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.2 apg) and Wayne Blackshear (10.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 apg). The bench is coming around and stepped up big during the last game to the tune of 22 points. Chinanu, Anton, and Quentin are averaging 8.9 points, and 7.3 rebounds.

Defensively the Cardinals average 11.8 turnovers per game and grab 13.07 offensive rebounds a game. They are holding their opponents to an average of 58.9 points a game on 38.1% shooting. The Cardinals average 8.3 steals a game and 5.8 blocks a game. The defensive effort has really improved over the last three games and they have held their last three opponents to an average of 54.3 points.

Our Cardinals are going to need all of the offense and defense they can get on Wednesday night. The Irish are one of the best scoring teams in the country and can really light it up when they get on a roll. I think our guys will have an athletic advantage in the post with Montrezl and on the perimeter with Rozier. If Wayne plays like he has been then they will also have trouble with him on the wing. Hopefully Chinanu, Anton and Quentin will continue to build upon their last couple of outings as well. I would like to see Shaqquan find his groove in one of these last games of the season as I feel we will need him for the tourney run. In the tourney games especially the conference tourney the more subs the better with so little down time between games.

This is one of the tougher games on our schedule because Notre Dame is well coached and they play so well on both ends of the floor. It is always a great battle when these teams meet and I don’t expect anything different this time. I think our Cards are finding their rhythm at the right time and they have their eye on the prize. They will win this battle.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Notre Dame 73

The Cardinals have renewed several old basketball rivalries during their very first season in the ACC. Saturday they will lock it up with an old rival from the Metro Conference days when they travel to play Florida State. Louisville has a 30-9 advantage in this series that dates back to 1976. It was Florida State who won the last game played between these teams 24 years ago in the Metro Tournament Championship game. One of my all-time favorite Cardinals “LA” Labradford Smith led Louisville in scoring in that game with 26 points. This is the last road game of the season for the Cardinals and they have been road warriors this season with a 6-3 road record. The Cardinals are in sole possession of fourth place in the ACC with a 10-5 conference record. Florida State is currently in eleventh place in the ACC with a 7-9 conference record.

The Florida State Seminoles are 15-14 this season and they have lost their last two games. FSU is averaging 67.6 points and they are shooting 46% from the field, while defensively they are allowing 67.1 points and their opponents are shooting 41.9%. Aaron Thomas leads the Seminoles averaging 14.8 points per game. Xavier Ranthan-Mayes is averaging 14.4 points, and he reeled off 30+ points in a four minute span during their last game. Montay Brandon is averaging 12 points and 5.6 rebounds, and Devon Bookert is averaging 10.4 points. Florida State is 11-5 at home.

Florida State 2014-15 Overall Rankings Offense | Defense

Florida State 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #99
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-97.5 ranks 84th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-103.0 ranks 143rd
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 65-61 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals are 22-5 this season and are coming off of back-to-back wins. They are averaging 69.9 points and they are shooting 42.8% while defensively they are allowing 58.9 points and their opponents are shooting 38%. Terry Rozier leads the Cardinals averaging 17.7 points and 5.5 rebounds. Montezl Harrell is averaging 15.3 points, Wayne Blackshear is averaging 10.5 points, and Chinanu Onuaku is averaging 3.3 points and 5.1 rebounds.

The young Cardinals have had a lot on their plate over the last couple of weeks. But just as winning heals all wounds adversity can really strengthen the bond of a team. The guys did a great job at coming back from 13 points to gutting out a one point victory against Georgia Tech. Quentin Snider showed a lot of moxie and composure in that game and his team will need that again facing a pretty stout defensive FSU team. I think Montrezl and Terry will need to have solid outings as well. It’s clutch time and those guys plus Wayne Blackshear are going to have to guide this team.

Florida State is likely headed to the NIT barring a conference tournament win and they would like nothing more than to take some of the frustrations from a rough season out on the Cardinals. They have always been a team that plays tough at home and I expect them to play their best game of the season Saturday. Like I mentioned above the Cardinals adversity I believe has brought them closer together and given them a purpose. Really think we see an inspired team who will take FSU’s best shot and take care of business.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 76 FSU 60

I think I’m stating the obvious in saying that Saturday is a must win situation when the Cardinals return to the Yum Center to play the Miami Hurricanes. The Cardinals are 8-2 in the all-time series against the Hurricanes, which dates back to the 1950-51 season. Louisville won the last matchup with Miami, defeating the Canes, 63-55, earlier this season on Feb. 3, 2015 in Coral Gables. The Hurricanes are 7-6 and in 7th place in the ACC while the Cardinals are 8-5 and in 4th place in the ACC.

The Hurricanes have been playing well as of late with wins in three of their last four after pounding Virginia Tech 76-52 on Wednesday. They are another team trying to close strong in hopes of getting one of the last spots in the tournament. They have beaten three ranked opponents this season including two on the road. Sheldon McClellan is leading the way for the Hurricanes averaging 14.8 points and 4.9 rebounds. He is hitting shots at a 51.7 percent clip. Angel Rodriguez is averaging 12.6 points and 4.3 assists. He is second in the ACC in steals. Tonye Jekiri is grabbing 10.4 rebounds a game. He leads the ACC with 15 ten plus rebound games. Davon Reed is knocking down 50.0 percent of his shots from long range overall, while notching a 54.8 percent (23-42) clip from three in ACC games. He leads the team with 23 3-pointers.

Miami 2014-15 Overall Rankings Offense | Defense

Miami 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #59
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-98.4 ranks 104th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-109.2 ranks 51st
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 67-59 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have proven this season that they can score and defend with the best of them but have struggled in both areas in back to back losses. Terry Rozier has averaged 19.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in the last eight games. Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and is shooting 57.7 percent from the field. Chris Jones has averaged 15.9 points, 4.8 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.0 steals and is expected to make a return to the Cardinals line-up on Saturday. Two of the Cardinal freshman had good games in Syracuse. Quentin Snider scored a career-high 13 points and Chinanu Onuaku totaled a career-high matching 11 rebounds and added eight points and three assist.

The Cardinals have just nine steals collectively in their last four games. The Cardinals had been seventh nationally averaging 9.3 steals a game prior to that stretch. While the offense has gradually gotten better the defense has gotten worse. They are going to have to get back to what Louisville teams have always done best and pick it up on this side of the ball. Coach Pitino has called the guys out for their poor defensive effort the past couple of weeks now charting their deflections and sharing the totals with the fans.

Saturday’s game will not be a cake walk. Miami is another hungry team looking to boost their March resume. They have some big wins including at one of the toughest places in the ACC Cameron Indoor. They have a lot of talent and have a very solid game on both ends of the floor.

This is one of those feel better, get back on track games for the Cardinals. I really would like to see Snider and Onuaku build on their solid performances at Cuse… I hope Jones can get back on track, and would like to see Wayne have a good game. I think we’ll see these things plus great all around games from the other guys. It’s crunch time and I really believe these guys know that and are ready to get back down to business. Like Montrezl said after the game on Wednesday they’ve worked too hard to let this season get away from them.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Miami 59