GAME #31 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Fighting Irish”

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Our #8 ranked Louisville Cardinals(25-5, 13-4 Big East) have won 6 straight since that dreadful five overtime loss on February 9th to Notre Dame(23-7, 11-6 Big East). Now here we are a month later and the #24 ranked Fighting Irish are coming to the KFC Yum Center for the return game. This will be the last game of the regular season and there will be a lot at stake. So much that Coach Pitino said today in his pre-game press conference that “it is the most important home game we’ve ever played” at the Yum Center. Of course there is the revenge factor of this game but that is really overshadowed by the post season implications. The Cards are currently in a three way tie with Georgetown and Marquette for the Big East regular season title and a win on Saturday would assure them at least a share of it. A win could also be the difference in being the 1 or 2 seed in the Big East tournament. The Cards also have a legitimate shot at getting a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and a big win over a top 50 RPI team in front of a national audience could go a long way in reaching that top line. If that’s not enough to get you fired up add in the Senior Day ceremonies where Mike Marra, Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng will play their final home game in the Cardinal uniform. So yes Cardinal fans this game is as big as it gets in the regular season. Louisville leads the all-time series with Notre Dame 17 to 12 and the Irish lead 5 to 4 in the Big East regular season series. These teams have met twice in the Big East tournament and the Cards have won both of those contest.

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Notre Dame might be a little less talented than some Big East teams, but its experienced roster and efficient offense is enough to win big games and be very competitive. Notre Dame returns all five starters for one of the few times in Mike Brey’s 12-year tenure and one of the most talented recruiting classes. Notre Dame’s current senior class needs only three victories to become the program’s all-time winningest class. There is depth, there is talent, there is plenty of drive and plenty of determination. When it comes to taking care of the ball and sharing the ball there isn’t many teams that do it better than this Irish squad. They are currently ranked 1st in the Big East in assist averaging 16.1 per game. And they are ranked 3rd nationally in assist averaging 17.6 per game. The Irish rank 1st in the Big East and 1st nationally in assist/turnover ratio at 1.4 and 1.58. They are also a very good defensive rebounding team ranked 5th in the Big East averaging 23.8 per game. Brey always has a group of guys that can shoot the ball really well and this team can score from anywhere on the court. They are 3rd in the Big East shooting 44.3% from the field and 3rd shooting 36.1% from the three-point line.
Notre Dame ranks nationally 87th averaging 71.2 points per game, 96th grabbing 36.5 rebounds per game and 24th shooting 47.3% from the field per game. They have a current RPI of 44 and are in 4th place in the Big East. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 114.8 ranked 13th and their adj efficiency on defense at 95.6 ranked 88th. He has them ranked 32 overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-36.1%, 2pt-44.3%, FT-70.7%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-9.9pg, Steals-4.6pg, Blocks-3.2pg

Coach Mike Brey: “We’ve gone from survival mode to thriving,” “Now the next step is to thrive deeper in New York City and in the NCAA tournament. We’ve been right there knocking on the door, Now it’s time to join the party.”

The Fighting Irish Players:

-Projected Starters

Jack Cooley SR (13.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-9 F is considered the doppelganger of former Irish All-American Luke Harangody. He has became a low-post force this season. In Big East play, he is 2nd in rebounding at 10.2 per game and offensive rebounds per game at 3.6. He is 3rd in field-goal percentage shooting 55.3%. He has scored in double-figures in 27 of the 30 games this season. He is averaging 1 blocked shot per game this season. He shoots 50% from the 3 point line and 68.5% from the free-throw line averaging 30 minutes of play.

Tom Knight SR (4.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-10 F The left-hander can do a handful of tasks really well rebound, defend and screen. He has become a more consist player this season as well. He shoots 52.7% from the field and 63.6% from the free-throw line averaging 16.7 minutes per game.

Eric Atkins JR (11.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.0 apg) 6-2 G He is one of the top guards in the league and is 4th in the Big East in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.1. He’s 7th in the Big East with a 5.1 assist-per-game average this season. He has four double-doubles this season and has dished out 10 or more assists in a game five times this season. He is shooting 45.5% from the field, 43.1% from the three point line and 64.1% from the free-throw line averaging 38.4 minutes per game.

Jerian Grant JR (13.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.6 apg) 6-5 G is a really confident player that will hit big shots in key moments, and knows how to get the ball to his teammates in scoring position. He has scored in double-figures in 25 Big East games this season, including a current stretch of four straight double-digit efforts. He is averaging 13.5 points per game in league play and his 5.6 assist-per-game average in Big East contests is fourth in the conference. He is shooting 42.7% from the field, 36.4% from the three point line and 72.6% from the free-throw line averaging 36.4 minutes per game.

Pat Connaughton SOPH (8.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.4 blkpg) 6-5 G/F is a player with a lot of versatility. He’ll score, pass, guard, take a charge and rebound. He also understands what it’s like to be under the brightest of lights. He has has dished out 69 assists this season and has an assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.06. He is shooting 42% from the field, 32.5% from the three point line and 74.4% from the free-throw line averaging 31.8 minutes a game.

-Bench

Garrick Sherman JR (6.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.3 apg) 6-10 C is a transfer from Michigan State that will provide back up to Cooley. He had his breakout game last time against Louisville when he had 17 points on 7 of 10 shooting. This guy is a pretty good weapon for Brey to bring off the Bench for some inside scoring. He is shooting 53.9% from the field and 65.9% from the free-throw line averaging 14.7 minutes per game.

Zach Auguste FR (4.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-10 F is a freshman that has come in and played the part for Notre Dame like Harrell has played for Louisville. He gives them length and a Big East body. He comes off the bench and gives them solid minutes. He is shooting 54.8% from the field and 64% from the free-throw line averaging 10.4 minutes per game.

Cameron Biedscheid FR (6.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1.0 apg) 6-7 F scored on a layup with 1:19 left to seal the 104-101 win the last time these teams played but he won’t be available on Saturday for the Irish. He got ejected in the last game after getting into a fight and will have to serve a one game suspension.

Austin Burgett FR (0.4 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-9 F will probably see more minutes in the game this Saturday due to the suspension of Biedscheid. He is a first year player with a real feel for the game, handles the ball extremely well for a player with his size and plays like a point forward. He is a strong perimeter shooter and a very skilled/athletic player with a great understanding of the game. He has good rebounding skills to go along with strong shooting abilities.

The Cards thrive on turnovers and forcing the other team to play faster than they typically do. It is not easy to do that to this Irish team. The Irish aren’t a great defensive team and they aren’t great on the offensive glass. I do think we can have the advantage and expose these areas. The Cards have better players at every position on the court. We need to take care of the ball, take good shots, and take advantage of our big guys in the paint. I do think Russ and Peyton will also play a big role if we are to get this win. They must play under control and stay on the floor. Look for Wayne Blackshear to have a big game in this one and his outside shooting will be key. I also think Hancock’s basketball intelligence will be more of an asset in this game than it has all season. I do think this Notre Dame team will struggle to make up for Biedscheids absence and that will make them more vulnerable. Their bench was already short to begin with.

There will be lots of emotion in the KFC Yum Center this Saturday. I just hope that doesn’t affect the players especially Peyton and Gorgui. The implications of this game are very big for both teams heading into the post season next weekend. I think our guys are playing the best basketball in the country and they are ready for anything. This game is just gonna be a tune-up for the final run. I look for this game to be over well before the final horn. No OT this time folks.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Notre Dame 65

GAME #30 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Bearcats”

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The word rival is thrown around very loosely in college sports today but on Monday our Louisville Cardinals(24-5, 12-4 Big East) will play a legitimate long time rival when they host the Cincinnati Bearcats(20-9, 8-8 Big East) for the very first time at the KFC Yum center on Monday night. Coach Pitino will be going for his 300th win and the Cards will be looking for their sixth win in a row. Louisville leads the all-time series with UC 54 to 43 and the series is tied in Big East play 4 to 4. The last time these teams met was in the 2012 Big East championship game where the Cards came out victorious in a 50-44 battle.

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Mick Cronin has really done a solid job at Cincinnati and they had a terrific run last year in March when they went on a 9-3 run, advanced to the Big East title game and the NCAA Sweet 16. They started out of the gate fast this year winning their first 12 games but have lost six out of ten down the stretch. The Bearcats are about pressuring opponents, turning them over and creating opportunities in the open court or spreading the floor in the half-court, using penetration and 3-point shooting. The problems for this team are a result of shooting and scoring woes, especially from its big guys. And that inability to score efficiently puts a tremendous amount of pressure on their defense to get stop after stop. They are averaging 0.98 points per possession. Their season average is 1.03. In Big East play, Cincinnati is shooting 37.1% from the field ranked 14th and 28.7% from 3-point range ranked 13th. The Bearcats’ defense is outstanding, but it has to be to make up for the team’s inability to score. Their field goal defense is ranked 9th in the Big East holding opponents to 41.6% per game, and their 3 point field goal defense is ranked 3rd holding their opponents to 29.2% per game on average. This team is very athletic and they really go after it on the boards. They are in the top five of every rebounding category in the Big East and are #1 in defensive rebounding.
The Bearcats rank nationally 149th with 68.4 points per game, 6th with 40.6 rebounds per game, 185th with 12.6 assist per game and 298th shooting 40.4% per game average. They are currently in 9th place in the Big East and have an RPI of 50. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 104.6 ranked 111 and their adj efficiency on defense at 87.5 ranked 12th. He has them ranked 34th overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-28.7%, 2pt-37.1%, FT-66.4%
In-conference defense: Turnovers- 11.4pg, Steals-5.1pg, Blocks-5.5 pg

Coach Mick Cronin: “Defense is engrained in our DNA,” “For us, we’re trying to create turnovers and extend our defense more consistently.”
“We’re such a defensive-minded team. For us, playing fast means taking the ball off of opponents with more steals, turnovers, deflections and bad passes. When we went through the process of building a program up and learning how to win, defense was the constant.”

The Bearcat Players:

-Projected Starters

Titus Rubles JR (6.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg) 6-7 F Cincy is his fourth stop in as many seasons. He is tough, athletic and can defend a variety of positions. He hasn’t been good at all from the field, which hurts his overall numbers. The big key for Rubles has been getting to the line. He shoots 33.1% from the field, 10.3% from the 3 point line and 65.6% from the free-throw line.

Cheikh Mbodj SR (5.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-10 C has proven this season that he can clear the boards and block a bunch of shots. He ranks 3rd in the Big East in blocked shots averaging 2.4 per game. He’s not really an offensive threat and gets most of his points off of offensive rebound put backs. He shoots 46.8% from the field and 65.7% from the free-throw line.

Cashmere Wright SR (12.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) 6-0 G He hasn’t been the same player since he sprained his right knee at DePaul on Jan. 15 and his shooting percentages have gone south. He has played through the pain and is one of two primary scoring threats for this team. And he is also a very good defensive player. He is the all-time steals leader for UC. He is shooting 38.5% from the field, 34.3% from the 3 point line and 81.9% from the free-throw line which ranks 4th in the Big East.

Sean Kilpatrick JR (17.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.9 apg) 6-4 G has emerged as one of the Big East’s top scoring guards and is the leader of this Bearcat squad. He has become very consistent player and can score from long range or drive to the basket. He along with Wright is the second primary scoring threat for this team. He ranks 6th in the Big East in scoring, and 3rd in 3 point shots made at 2.6 per game. He shoots 40.9% from the field, 32.5% from the 3 point line and 73.1% from the free-throw line.

JaQuon Parker SR (11.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg) 6-3 G is a driven wing who can do just about anything necessary in a winning cause. Parker rebounds extremely well for his size, can shoot from the outside and according to Cronin doesn’t care what is asked of him; he’ll do it. He ranks 15th in the Big East in offensive rebounds with 1.9 per game. He shoots 41.4% from the field, 40.5% from the 3 point line and 52.3% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Ge’Lawn Guyn SOPH (2.5 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-2 G is not really a big threat scoring wise and is usually called on to hound the opposing teams point guard. He is a very solid on the ball defender. He shoots 34.3% from the field, 25.7% from the 3 point line and 83.3% from the free-throw line.

Jermaine Sanders SOPH (3.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-5 F has been described as a player with a lot of potential. He can play inside or outside, mainly outside. He is a lefty and has a pretty good jump shot. He does struggle a bit from the charity stripe and is not a very good rebounder. He shoots 40.2% from the field, 30% from the 3 point line and 53.3% from the free-throw line.

Shaquille Thomas FR (2.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-7 F can beat his man off the dribble and score at the basket. He’s not all that fundamentally sound, but he’s a high flier who plays above the rim and can be an effective passer. He has good versatility. He is also a good defensive player. He shoots 39.2% from the field, 37.5% from the 3 point line and 57.1% from the free-throw line.

David Nyarsuk JR (2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.2 apg) 7-1 C is the tallest player to ever play for the Bearcats. He gives them size and scoring inside. He does struggle to stay on the floor do to his foul trouble. He shoots 59.4% from the field and 53.3% from the free-throw line.

The Bearcats are a very similar team to the Cards the way they play on the defensive end of the floor. This is to be expected as Cronin is a Rick Pitino disciple. But they do struggle on the offensive end of the floor. I look for the Cards to focus their defense keying on Wright and Kilpatrick because the Bearcats have no other serious scoring threats. Their passing is also not very good and their bigs can’t finish around the rim so there’s no need to help off the guards. They are also very poor shooters as a team from the free-throw line.

Gorgui and Chane should have huge days in the lane as they really are on a different level compared to the Bearcat bigs. It will be fun to watch Russ and Peyton go toe-to-toe with their guard duo but I would give the edge to the Cards here as well.

These teams are going in different directions as the Bearcats are really struggling right now and the Cards are playing their best basketball of the season. We have the advantage at every position on the court including our bench play. I’m looking forward to watching these old rivals go at it for the first time ever in the Yum Center but I really don’t expect it to be much of a game.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Cincinnati 59

GAME #29 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Orange”

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Our #10 ranked Louisville Cardinals (23-5, 11-4 Big East) have won seven of their last eight games and four in a row as they head into the final Big East battle with #12 ranked Syracuse (22-6, 10-5 Big East) on Saturday afternoon. This will be the last time these teams play each other as Big East members. Louisville leads the all-time series 13 to 7 and 6 to 4 in the Big East. Syracuse has won three in a row over the Cards including the 70-68 victory on January 19th at the KFC Yum center.

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Syracuse is in the midst of its winningest era ever. The Orange’s recruiting is at an all-time high, with four McDonald’s All-Americans committing in the last three years. And Coach Jim Boeheim is making his climb to one of the most winning coaches in college basketball at 912 wins. As always, Boeheim has plenty of guys between 6-8 and 6-10 to hold down the back line of the zone, while on the top he has 6-4 Triche and the 6-6 Carter-Williams. And with this much size and agility, the 2-3 is once again a real pain for opposing teams. That zone has them ranked 3rd in the Big East in field goal percentage defense holding teams to 39.2%, and 9th in 3 point percentage defense holding teams to 31.2%. They are also ranked 3rd in the Big East in blocked shots with 5.5 a game and 2nd in steals behind our Cards with 8.1 per game. Since beating the #1 Cards on January 19th Cuse has struggled and went 5-5 in their last 10 games. And although their defense has stayed consistent their offense has struggled. Even with James Southerland returning to the line-up it hasn’t helped as Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, who looked like arguably the best back court in the country back in January, have struggled mightily. Triche has averaged just 12.6 points while shooting 34.0% from the floor and 15.9% from three over the last eight games. Michael Carter-Williams hasn’t been much better during that stretch and he’s accounted for 17 assists and 19 turnovers. Despite his struggles Cuse still ranks 2nd in the Big East in assist/turnover ratio at +3.47. They have dropped to 7th in the Big East in field goal percentage to 42.6% per game and 9th in 3 point percentage at 31.2% per game.
The Orange rank nationally 39th with 74 points per game, 16th with 39.5 rebounds per game, 41st with 15.1 assist per game and 96th shooting 44.7% per game. They are currently in 4th place in the Big East with a 12 RPI. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 114.4 ranked 14th and their adj efficiency on defense at 87.5 ranked 13th. He has them ranked 9th overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-31.2%, 2pt-42.6%, FT-74.9%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.2pg, Blocks-5.5pg, Steals-8.1pg

Coach Jim Boeheim: “We are a low turnover team and that will be tested against Louisville, because they pressure and try to force turnovers. That will be a big part of the game. We attack pressure well. We think we can attack the pressure. It will be a challenge. I’m more concerned with their shot blocking ability. They’re very very good around the basket.”

The Orange Players:

-Projected Starters

C.J. Fair JR (14.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-8 F is a strong and physical player who is a good rebounder and is ranked 5th in the Big East with 7.7 per game. He is a dependable source of effective and low-foul coverage on the back line of the 2-3 zone. He is shooting 49.2% from the field, 42.1% from the 3 point line and 82.1% from the free-throw line.

Rakeem Christmas SOPH (5.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.3 apg) 6-9 F is a good rebounder, shot blocker and defender. He is ranked 5th in the Big East in blocked shots with 1.7 per game. He is not as effective on the offensive end of the floor. He is also a player prone to foul trouble. He is shooting 55.2% from the field, and 62.9% from the free-throw line.

Jerami Grant FR (4.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-8 F has the look of the prototypical Syracuse forward. He’s long and lean. He can drive to the basket and has a developing jump shot. He will have to overcome the pressure of playing against a more physical and mature Cards front-court. He shoots 47.6% from the field, 40% from the 3 point line and 54.2% from the free-throw line.

Michael Carter-Williams SOPH (12.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 7.9 apg) 6-6 G is the player who replaced Scoop Jardine in the Cuse starting line-up. He is a good ball handler with great court vision and is 3rd in the Big East in assist with 6 per game. 4th in assist/turnover ratio at 2.2. He has great size and length for the top of that 2-3 zone. Very effective defender and is the steals leader in the Big East with 2.7 per game. He has been struggling of late but is still a very capable and great athlete. He is shooting 38.1% from the field, 28.6% from the 3 point line and 74.4% from the free-throw line.

Brandon Triche SR (14.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.7 apg) 6-4 G was clutch in the win over the Cards back in January. If he gets hot he can be a very effective scorer. He is a veteran guard and his team will need him to step up big if they are to beat our Cards again on Saturday. He shoots 42.5% from the field, 29.1% from the 3 point line and 74.3% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Trevor Cooney FR (4.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-4 G will back up Triche at the off guard spot, allowing the senior guard to rest or move to the point to spell Carter-Williams. He’s got size, strength and athleticism. Gives the Orange a 3 point threat when he’s in the game and can out the ball on the floor and make plays. He shoots 32.2% from the field, 27.9% from the 3 point line and 81.1% from the free-throw line.

Baye Keita JR (3.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.1 apg) 6-10 C provides energy, defense and rebounding off the bench. He is another big guy on this team who is not as effective on offense and is also a liability at the free throw line. He shoots 62.3% from the field and 50% from the free-throw line.

James Southerland SR (13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.2 apg) 6-8 F He rebounds and defends better than he did as an underclassman, but he still remains something of a one-dimensional offensive player. He’s yet to add a reliable drive to the basket to his outside shooting ability. He missed the last game against Louisville with some eligibility issues. He is a very experienced player and has been know for some clutch shots in big games. He has crazy range and will shoot the ball from the parking lot. He is shooting 47.9% from the field, 39% from the free throw line, and 69.7% from the free-throw line.

The Orange get extra possessions by getting offensive rebounds (five players have 25 or more total offensive rebounds) and steals, but they give up too many second shots and have been turning the ball over too much as of late. Triche and Carter-Williams have not played well over the past month, and it’s why Syracuse is struggling. The Cards will have to capitalize on the weakness of the Orange’s offensive mistakes and capitalize on their turnovers. And we will need our more experienced front-court to get on the offensive glass and defend the lane.

It’s always fun to watch Pitino and Boeheim go at it. And it will be interesting to see how Coach P decides to attack the zone defense. We have beat Syracuse with our transition game in the past and we have beaten them in the half court. We have a team very capable of either way this year and should have beaten them the last time we played. Our depth will once again play a role in the outcome. Ware, Hancock and Harrell will have to make the most of their minutes when they are in the game. If Russ and Peyton play the games they are capable of and stay out of foul trouble it could be a big factor as I believe the winner of the back-court battle could be the winner of this game.

This one is gonna be another classic in this great rivalry and it will be the last time these teams meet as Big East members. Syracuse will be moving into the ACC after this season and Louisville will follow in 2014. I think our depth and back-court will be the difference in this one and our Cards avenge the earlier loss to get a hard fought win. Not gonna be easy and will be a low scoring game as these are two great defenses.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 65 Syracuse 60

GAME #28 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Blue Demons”

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Winning their last six out of seven games our #10 ranked Louisville Cardinals (22-5, 10-4 Big East) will take to the road again on Wednesday night when they head to Chicago to face the DePaul Blue Demons (11-16, 2-12 Big East). They have only won 2 games in the last two months. Louisville leads the all-time series 37 to 21 and are 8-0 against DePaul in the Big East. The last time these teams played each other was back on February 18, 2012. The Cards won that game in overtime 90-82.

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Since coach Oliver Purnell arrived on campus the Blue Demons depth is better, the talent is better and they have more experience. But talent, depth and improved experience are only the building blocks. Teams that thrive take them and construct something beyond just potential and promise. That’s something DePaul hasn’t been able to do, because of their defense and rebounding. They are currently ranked dead last in the Big East in field goal percentage defense allowing their opponents to shoot 50.1% on average, and dead last in 3 point field goal percentage defense allowing their opponents to shoot 41.5% on average. They are currently ranked 14th in the Big East in rebounding margin getting out rebounded by 5.9 per game. Even though they struggle on the defensive end of the floor they aren’t that bad on the offensive end and this team can score points. The are currently ranked 1st in the Big East in scoring offense averaging 71.6 points a game, 8th in field goal percentage averaging 42.2% per game, 11th in 3 point field goal percentage averaging 30.7% per game and 4th in free throw percentage averaging 72.6% per game. They also do a good job of sharing the ball and are ranked 7th in the Big East in assist averaging 13.8 per game. The Blue Demons take good care of the ball and they are ranked 5th in the Big East in turnover margin at +1.07. Purnell has accumulated the pieces necessary for progress and this team has the potential to be better, provided its players learn how to win games and can improve their rebounding and defense significantly.
The Blue Demons rank nationally 55th overall scoring 73.1 points per game, 129th overall with 35.7 rebounds per game, 102nd overall with 14 assist per game and 154th overall shooting 43.6% per game. They are currently in 13th place in the Big East and are 182 in the RPI. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 103.7 ranked 123rd and their adj efficiency on defense at 101.5 ranked 192. He has them ranked 146 overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-30.7%, FG-42.2%, FT-72.6%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.4pg, Steals-7.4pg, Blocks-3.5pg

Coach Oliver Purnell: “Our defense has to be improved,” “Because of our up-tempo style, we can have games where the other team shoots well, and we can win. But we can’t do that all the time. We have to get our opponents’ shooting percentage down. A lot of that is rebounding. We’ve got to clean the glass.”

The Blue Demon Players:

-Projected Starters

Donnavan Kirk JR (7.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-9 F was ranked among the top 30 power forwards by both ESPN.com and Scout.com as a senior in high school. He transferred to DePaul from Miami in January 2011. He gives them size on the wing and has scoring ability. He ranks 5th in the Big East shooting 51.2%. He is shooting 39.3% from the 3 point line and 70.6% from the free-throw line.

Cleveland Melvin JR (16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-8 F is the league’s top returning scorer and could be even more potent if he is more accurate from the 3-point line. He has connected on only 29.5% of his 3s. Despite that, Purnell wants him to keep firing from long range. He is ranked 10th in the Big East in scoring, and 9th in rebounding. He is shooting 47% from the field and 67.9% from the free-throw line.

Brandon Young JR (16.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.5 apg) 6-4 G a talented combo who can score off the dribble, distribute the rock and take care of it, too. Young’s biggest problem last year was his 28.1 percent success rate from behind the arc. But he has improved that this season to 31.3% and is one of the best guards in the Big East. He is ranked 5th in the Big East in scoring, 9th in assist, 8th in steals and 10th in assist/turnover ratio. He shoots 43.2% from the field and 75% from the free-throw line.

Worrel Clahar SR (7.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.4 apg) 5-11 G he is a very good athlete and is a pass first guard. He is ranked 13th in the Big East in assist, 2nd in assist/turnover ratio and 11th on free-throw percentage at 80%. He shoots 39.9% from the field and 27.3% from the 3 point line.

Charles McKinney SOPH (5.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg) 6-3 G is not going to put up big numbers on the offensive end of the floor but he is one of the best defenders for the blue demons. He has long, natural length with a big wingspan and a lot of quickness to go with it. He shoots 49.5% from the field, 41.7% from the 3 point line and 56.4% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Jamee Crockett SOPH (9.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.3 blkpg) 6-4 G/F who can score inside and out, he can distribute a bit, and his burly frame allows him to be a good rebounder. All of that allows Purnell to use Crockett at the three and two. He shoots 39.7% from the field, 26.3% from the 3 point line, and 66.7% from the free-throw line.

Durrell McDonald FR (3.4 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-1 G is a great athlete who can play either guard spot. He’s a 6-10 high jumper and has Purnell and his staff excited about his potential. He shoots 44.2% from the field, 43.5% from the 3 point line and 50% from the free-throw line.

Moses Morgan JR (6.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-6 F has a body capable of being more of a factor inside, even if he is a strong (30.4%) 3-point shooter. Purnell has had him help out at the four position this year, and that has lead to better rebounding. He is shooting 32.3% from the field, 30.4% from the 3 point line and 75% from the free-throw line.

Derrell Robertson Jr. SOPH (2.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-10 C is a defensive presence, and has blocked 14 shots this year. He shoots 55.8% from the field and 71.4% from the free-throw line.

The Blue Demons have turned into a train wreck in recent years, winning a total of seven Big East regular season games in the last five years combined. At 11-16 overall and 2-12 in the Big East this season, the Blue Demons are enduring another miserable year. But if they get their defense together I do think they are very capable at pulling off a upset. But don’t expect one on Wednesday night as the Cards inside presence will completely overwhelm this Blue Demon group. Gorgui and Chane should have their way and get plenty of rebounds and chances to score. I look for Wayne Blackshear to have a good homecoming and his athletic ability on the wing will be tough for Depaul to guard. Peyton and Russ will control this one from beginning to end.

As I mentioned above these guys have some of the tools to compete but their defense, rebounding and toughness is really lacking. In the physical Big East that just doesn’t work. This team shouldn’t be overlooked because of their record but at the same time it’s DePaul. Cards should cruise in this one and have the highest point total of the year.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 86 DePaul 58

GAME #27 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Pirates part 2”

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Our #10 ranked Louisville Cardinals (21-5, 9-4 Big East) have won four games out of their last five and will return to the KFC Yum center on Saturday afternoon to face the Seton Hall Pirates (13-14, 2-12 Big East). The Pirates are struggling in the grueling Big East and have lost their last 8 games. The Cards lead the all-time series with Seton Hall 12-5. The Cards beat the Pirates back on January 9th at their place 73-58.

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This is coach Kevin Willard’s 3rd season at the helm at Seton Hall. Last season he led the Pirates to a 20 win season for only the third time in the last 19 years and they got their first NIT win since 1956. This season hasn’t been so kind to coach Willard and the Pirates. They had some pretty big obstacles to overcome heading into this season without a true senior on the roster and losing their best two players from last season in Jordan Theodore and Herb Pope. But add in all the injuries that have piled up and it really has turned into a tough year for the Pirates. They recently lost sophomore Brandon Mobley (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.7 apg) with a season-ending shoulder surgery, junior Patrik Auda (7.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.2 apg) is out for the season with a broken foot, and both junior Aaron Geramipoor and junior Brian Oliver have missed significant stretches due to injury as well. To top it off coach Willard just found out Thursday that sophomore guard Haralds Karlis has been playing with a groin hernia and will require surgery at the end of the season. To say that there is a lack of depth for this Pirates team is an understatement. And the one thing you can’t deal with in the rough and tumble Big East is a lack of bodies. This team ranks at or near the bottom of every statistical category in the Big East but three. They do shoot the ball well and rank 7th shooting 32.9% from the 3 and 1st in made 3’s at 7.1 per game. They also do a decent job of sharing the ball and are ranked 10th with 12.9 assist per game.
The Pirates rank nationally 211th with 66 points per game, 185th with 34.6 rebounds per game, 98th with 14.1 assist per game and 152nd shooting 43.6% from the field per game. Their current RPI is 122, and they are in 14th place in the Big East. Kenpom has their adj efficiency at 102.1 ranked 139th and their defensive adj efficiency at 96.9 ranked 111th. He has them ranked 115 overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-32.9%, 2pt-40.6%, FT-64.4%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-10.7pg, Steals-5.9pg, Blocks-2.0pg

Coach Kevin Willard: “One of our biggest weaknesses, we don’t have the horses.” “I think it’s wearing down on us more mentally than physically. Physically, we’re getting out-matched. It’s tough to keep battling when you’re so undersized.”

The Pirate Players:

-Projected Starters

Haralds Karlis SOPH (3.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.0 apg) 6-5 G is decent long range shooter for this team, he also defends well at the shooting guard. He found out this week that he will have to play the rest of the season with groin hernia. He shoots 32.5% from the field, 20.8% from the 3 point line and 69.6% from the free-throw line.

Eugene Teague JR (11.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.5 apg) 6-9 C is a transfer from Southern Illinois with two seasons of eligibility. He gives the Pirates a good inside presence. He’s strong, got great touch around basket, runs the floor well and demands a lot of attention down low. He shoots 55.4% from the field, and 55.4% from the free-throw line.

Fuquan Edwin JR (17.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.4 blkpg) 6-6 G/F is the top returning scorer and rebounder for the Pirates and has a steal rate so good it looks like a typo. Indeed among major-conference players, only our Peyton Siva can look Edwin in the eye when the topic turns to steals. Edwin is ranked 2nd in the Big East with 2.6 pg and Siva is 3rd with 1.9 pg. Edwin shoots 45.3% from the field, 41.4% from the 3 point line and 69.8% from the free-throw line.

Aaron Cosby SOPH (11.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.9 apg) 6-2 G is a pretty good long range scorer and he ranks 12th in the Big East in 3 point percentage and 5th in 3’s made per game at 2.2. He is shooting 40.9% from the field, 36.8% from the 3 point line and 73.2% from the free-throw line.

Tom Maayan FR (2.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.4 apg) 6-1 G is a solid player and very good on the ball defender. He shoots 38.6% from the field, 30.8% from the 3 point line and 35.3% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Kyle Smyth SR (4.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) 6-4 G is a graduate transfer who played for Willard at Iona, and was eligible immediately this season. He fills into that depth the Pirates have at the wings. He shoots the ball well and has a great basketball IQ. He shoots 34.5% from the field, 33.7% from the 3 point line and 89.5% from the free-throw line.

Brian Oliver JR (7.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.2 blkpg) 6-6 G/F is a transfer from Georgia Tech. He started 12 games his final season at Georgia Tech in 2010-11 and was the third-leading scorer for the Yellow Jackets. He has brought scoring to the floor this season for the Pirates. He shoots 34.2% from the field, 34.8% from the 3 point line and 92.3% from the free-throw line.

Aaron Geramipoor JR (0.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-11 C has not played any significant minutes this season. He has struggled with a stress fracture in his right foot. He shoots 33.3% from the field, and 50% from the free-throw line.

Kevin Johnson FR (2.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-9 C had to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a slightly torn meniscus, and has missed time this season. He is shooting 50% from the field and 45.2% from the free-throw line.

Rick Pitino has a lot of respect for Kevin Willard and says that he is the best young X and O guy coaching the game right now. And Willard is putting together a decent program at Seton Hall. He is just having one of those tough transition seasons and luck really hasn’t gone the way of the Pirates. They will be severely outmanned Saturday and really don’t have much of a chance against a Cards team that is now poised for a major NCAA run. This will be a great game for the Cards to fine tune and work on some things. I really would like to see Peyton Siva driving the lane more and taking the ball to the basket. He is gonna have to start getting to the foul line. Will be watching to see if Wayne and Kevin continue to produce, and if Gorgui can get it going a little more on the offensive end of the floor.

I would never say that any game is a guaranteed victory but this is as close to a guarantee you will see this season.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Seton Hall 58

GAME #26 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Bulls part 2”

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Our #12 ranked Louisville Cardinals (20-5, 8-4 Big East) hit the road for another Big East battle with the South Florida Bulls (10-14, 1-11 Big East) on Sunday. This is the second time these teams have met this season. The Cards beat the Bulls easily in the last game back on January 12th 64 to 38. Louisville leads the all-time series 26-4 and 9-1 in the Big East regular season.

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Playing against the Bulls is like watching basketball in quick sand. They love slowing down the tempo to a crawling pace and locking down their opponents on defense. This season was expected to look different for them thanks to a deeper, more versatile roster and the Bulls were hoping to be able to score more and be much more effective on the offensive end of the floor. But so far that hasn’t been the case. They rank 15th which is last in the Big East in scoring offense with 53.5 points per game, 15th in field goal percentage at 36.7% a game and 15th in 3 point percentage at 26.4% a game. They do shoot their free-throws well and are currently 5th in the Big East at 72.2% a game. Stan Heath is know for his defense and this year that hasn’t changed. The Bulls rank 8th in the Big East in scoring defense at 65.2 per game, 7th in 3 point defense holding teams to 32.4% a game, 8th on steals at 6.3 per game and 7th in turnover margin at +.50 a game. The Bulls are also struggling on the boards this season in a very physical Big East and they are ranked dead last in offensive rebounding, 14th in defensive rebounding, and 15th in rebounding margin.
Here are some other national ranks to consider. The Bulls are ranked 323rd nationally scoring 60 points a game, 278th with 32.4 rebounds a game, 271st with 11.5 assist per game and 321st in field goal percentage shooting 39.5% a game. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 99.3 ranked 180. He has their adj efficiency on defense at 98.3 ranked 141. He has them ranked 158 overall. Their current RPI is 124 and they are dead last in the Big East standings.

In-conference offense: 3pt-26.4%, 2pt-36.6%, FT-72.2%
In-conference defense: Turnovers 12.1pg, Steals-6.3pg, Blocks-3.0pg

Coach Stan Heath: “Every year you’re different,” “You’ve got to turn the page. We have a new roster, and we have to play to our strengths.”

The Bulls Players:

-Projected Starters

Kore White SR (3.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-8 F is a Florida Atlantic transfer. He can block shots, rebound and has a good shooting touch. He’s a solid player. He has missed time this season with a back injury. He shoots 47.4% from the field, 46.7% from the 3 point line and 50% from the free-throw line.

Toarlyn Fitzpatrick SR (10.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.9 apg) 6-8 F is a big defender and the teams most effective defensive rebounder. He is shooting 38.9% from the field, 32.6% from the 3 point line, and 73.5% from the free-throw line.

Victor Rudd JR (11.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-9 F has great athletic skill and is a real force inside and out. When he plays up to his potential he has star potential. He is shooting 38.8% from the field, 27% from the 3 point line, and 69.8% from the free-throw line.

Anthony Collins SOPH (9.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 6.6 apg) 6-1 G is fearless at both ends of the floor. He is a pass first guard but can score when he wants to. He is one of the best guards in the Big East Louisville will play this season. He is 5th in the Big East in assist with 5.4 a game, 10th in Free Throw% at 80.6%, 9th in assist/turnover ratio at 1.8.

Javontae Hawkins FR (1.9 ppg, 0.7 rpg) 6-5 G is the Bulls top rated recruit. ESPN rated him the No. 33 forward in the country. He is long, skilled and can get to the basket. He is a solid catch-and-shoot guy.

-Bench

Martino Brock JR (4.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.1apg) 6-6 G is a transfer from South Alabama. He is strong off the dribble and can step back to hit the jumper. He’s very versatile in the backcourt. He’s a great defender and aggressive on the offensive end. He is shooting 35.1% from the field, 25% from the 3 point line and 60.4% from the free-throw line.

Jawanza Polan SR (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) 6-4 G is a feast or famine type of player but can hurt you if he does get it going on the offensive end as Louisville found out last year when they lost to the Bulls as he scored 16 in that game.

Jordan Omogbehin FR (0.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg) 7-3 C missed last season due to a knee injury. He is a big man and can be a defensive force in the paint.

Zach LeDay FR (4.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-7 F has been a key reserve for the Bulls this season. He can shoot the 3, run the floor and defend some.

South Florida has been struggling this season but they do have a decent bench and a group of capable athletes. They play great perimeter defense and will do a good job of keeping Russ and Peyton out of the lane. Once again our front court players will have to step up in this one to open up some offense against this good Bulls defense.

Are the South Florida Bulls capable of getting the win on Sunday? Yes they are capable but it would take an epic collapse by a Louisville team that seems to have things back on track. The Bulls will be outmanned in this one. Louisville is just on another level this season. No upset this weekend folks.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 South Florida 52

GAME #25 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Red Storm”

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The #12 Cards (19-5, 7-4 Big East) will return to the court on Thursday night to face St Johns (15-9, 7-5 Big East). The Cards will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the grueling five overtime loss against Notre Dame on Saturday and The Red Storm will be looking for another quality win to add to their resume in what has been a roller coaster of a season for them. Louisville leads the all-time series in this rivalry 11-2. The Cards are 6-2 since the teams started playing in the Big East in 2006. The Cards have won the last two meetings against the Red
Storm.

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Steve Lavin’s team was extremely young last year, and though it isn’t exactly grizzled this season, the Red Storm is building toward prosperity with a second consecutive solid recruiting class and the construction of a roster with talent at every position. Even though the roster is young and inexperienced, there are plenty of pieces to allow the Johnnies to play fast or slow, to spread the floor and fire away or to rough it up inside. As you would expect out of a young group this team has been very inconsistent this season. They have had really bad losses to teams like UNC-Asheville and San Francisco. And they have also had some pretty good wins over UCONN and Georgetown. Now they find themselves needing a really good win or two to get back in the conversation of the Ncaa Tourney. They haven’t made an assault on the conference’s upper reaches, not with 11 underclassmen on the roster but out of Lavin’s crop of eight newcomers there have been some players who have made a big impact this year. And that has made St. John’s quite a formidable foe at this point in the season. They have a really solid interior defense and can get after you on the defensive end of the floor. They are 6th in the Big East in field goal percentage defense holding teams to 39.9% on average and 9th in 3 point field goal percentage defense holding teams to 32.7% per game. They are second in all of NCAA Division I basketball and 1st in the Big East in blocked shots averaging 5.8 a game. Seven different Red Storm players have blocked a shot this season. They are ranked 6th in the Big East in steals averaging 6.9 a game. The Red Storm is averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game, a mark that ranks 4th among Big East programs and tied for 23rd in the nation. Their +2.92 turnover margin is 4th in the conference and 38th nationally, up from a +1.28 mark in 2011-12.
The Red Storm also rank nationally 160th with 68 points per game, 104th with 36.5 rebounds per game, 187th with 12.6 assist per game and 191st shooting 43% from the field per game. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 101.3 ranked 151st nationally. He has their adj efficiency on defense at 93.1 ranked 65th nationally. They currently have a 55 RPI and are in 9th place in the Big East.

In-conference offense: 3pt-27.8%, 2pt-41.2%, FT-65.1%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.2pg, Steals-6.9pg, Blocks-5.8pg

Coach Steve Lavin: “We’re probably a year ahead of schedule in terms of where we are personnel-wise.” “We have a full complement of scholarship players, but we have 11 underclassmen, and all of our players have one year or less of Division I experience. It’s the youngest team I’ve coached. It’s the youngest team in school history.”

The Red Storm Players:

-Projected Starters

Jakarr Sampson FR (14.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6.8 F is a skilled and athletically dynamic basketball player with the ability to influence the game at both ends of the floor. His ability to create off the dribble, slash to the basket and finish at the rim gives him distinction among his peers. He just earned a conference best sixth Big East Rookie of the Week award, the league announced on Monday. He leads Big East freshmen in both scoring (14.8 ppg, 13th overall) and rebounding (6.6 rpg, 11th overall). His rejections (1.2, 11th) and defensive rebounds per game (4.6, eighth) are listed among the Big East Conference leaders.

Sir’Dominic Pointer SOPH (6.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.9 blkpg) 6-5 G/F is one of the most athletic and tenacious defenders in the Big East. He has offensive skills that allow him to play at the shooting guard, small forward and power forward positions. He is 14th in the Big East in rebounding, 7th in defensive rebounding and 15th in steals.

D’Angelo Harrison SOPH (18.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.1 apg) 6-3 G is a long-range bomber known for his dead-eye accuracy and ability to get to the rim. He’s an athletic and versatile scorer who possesses both great range and great confidence. He ranks 10th in the Big East in scoring and 7th in 3 point field goals made at 1.9 per game. He also ranks 10th in the league in minutes played at 36 a game. He shoots 40.7% from the field, 31.7% from the 3 point line and 78.5% from the free throw line.

Phil Greene IV SOPH (8.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.8 apg) 6-2 G is known for his quickness and playmaking skills on offense and in transition. He is a floor general with the ability to get into the lane pull up, dish and create for others. He’s a hard-nosed defender who adds length and speed to “Chicago toughness” and has the ability to guard all perimeter positions. He is shooting 35.5% from the field, 24.4% from the free throw line and 75% from the free throw line.

Marco Bourgault SOPH (2.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.1 blkpg) 6-6 G/F is junior college transfer who is a shooter who helps the Red Storm spread the floor and make room for its enhanced front-court contingent. Although he suffered a serious knee injury two years ago, Bourgault has completely healed and provides quality minutes. He shoots 34.5% from the field and 36.6 from the 3 point line.

-Bench

Amir Garrett SOPH (6.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.3 blkpg) 6-6 G/F who possesses superior athleticism. He’s a tenacious offensive threat who specializes in transition with hard drives to the rim that result in show-stopping dunks. He’s also a hard-nosed defender who has a penchant for swatting away shots. He shoots 47.1% from the field, 33.3% from the 3 point line and 53.6% from the free throw line.

Felix Balamou FR (2.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.4 apg) 6-4 G is an athletic wing with game-changing athleticism. He’s a dynamic scorer and finisher that possesses limitless athleticism and basketball smarts. His floor game is described as meteorically-rising and is known for his above-the-rim style of play. He shoots 44.4% from the field and 88.9% from the free throw line.

Christian Jones FR (2.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.4 apg) 6-7 F a wide-framed, rugged athlete. He owns standout offensive and defensive abilities from the low blocks. He’s a versatile and mature athlete that plays above the rim and rebounds with aggression at both ends of the floor. He shoots 45.5% from the field and 45.5% from the free throw line.

Chris Obekpa FR (3.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.2 apg) 6-9 F/C is an intimidating shotblocker and defensive game-changer. He was a consensus top 100 player overall and top 20 center by national recruiting services. He craves defense but boasts an offensive post-up game as well. He’s a powerful and aggressive rebounder. He’s an outstanding finisher with a developing 15-foot jumper. STJ is paced by Obekpa ranks as the conference leader in blocks after already setting a new Big East freshman record. With 102 rejections an average of 4.3 per game he is second among all NCAA Division I players in blocked shots. He has more rejections than 266 DI teams.

No doubt about it Cards fans this is a dangerous team. Their front court group is very impressive and they will make Gorgui, Chane and Wayne work for every basket they get. I expect Montrezl and Van Treese to play a bigger role due to physical nature of this game. Our starters are gonna need the rest after banging around with this group. This will be a good game for Russ and Peyton to shake off that last loss. Their experience should pay off against a much younger and inexperienced back court group of the Red Storm. And nothing like getting a respectable win in front of the home crowd to get things back on track. We all need this win and I’m very confident we will get it. This Red Storm group is gonna be hungry and very competitive but the more experienced Cards and the crowd in the KFC Yum Center will wear on these young guys mentally.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 St Johns 69

GAME #23 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Scarlet Knights”

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Wednesday is going to be a exciting evening as our new football recruits will make it official on National Signing day. The 11th ranked Louisville basketball team (18-4, 6-3 Big East) will also be in action in New Jersey at the RAC to face Rutgers (12-8, 3-6 Big East).

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Last season Coach Mike Rice’s team had seven freshmen and only one senior on the roster. The calendar has turned and freshmen are now sophomores. Rutgers has taken a step forward this season but it hasn’t been a great leap. There has been some progress thanks to the team’s maturation and the arrivals of a pair of transfers who brought experience and toughness. The Scarlet Knights have good guards and can score. Rutgers is 9th in the Big East in Field goal percentage at 41.2% per game, 5th in 3 point percentage at 34.5% per game, and 4th in free-throw percentage at 73.7% per game. They also rank 8th in the Big East in 3 point shots made at 5.6 per game. Their biggest problem is sharing and taking better care of the ball. Their assist/turnover ratio in the Big East is ranked 14th. They are only averaging 11.7 assist per game to 14.8 turnovers with a ratio of 0.8. They also struggle at times on defense and working on the glass to seal defensive possessions. They are ranked 9th in the Big East in rebounding margin at +0.2, 13th in the in turnover margin at -3.11, and 11th in steals at 6.1 per game. They have too many possession battles, giving up too many turnovers and second shots.
They are ranked nationally 163rd in points per game at 67.9, 163rd in rebounds per game at 35.3, 161st in assist per game at 13 and 87th in field goal percentage per game at 45.1%. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 104.2 ranked 102, and their adj efficiency on defense at 97.2 ranked 122. He has them ranked 103 overall. Their current RPI is 64 and they are in 11th place in the Big East.

In-conference offense: 3pt-34.5%, 2pt-41.2%, FT-73.7%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-11.7pg, Steals-6.1pg, Blocks-2.8pg

Coach Mike Rice: “Our first year here, we had just seven scholarship players and no inside presence,””Then last year, we had all those babies. Now, we’ve got to score in the paint. We have to get to the foul line and learn to make plays in the last four minutes of games. We’re built to do that now.”

The Scarlet Knight Players:

-Projected Starters

Wally Judge JR (7.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-9 F is a Kansas State transfer who brings needed experience, leadership and size to the equation. He ranks 8th in field goal percentage at 51.9%. He is somewhat of a liability from the free throw line shooting 44.2%.

Kadeem Jack SOPH (5.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-9 F redshirt Sophmore has struggled at Rutgers and learning how to work while getting banged around and being strong when going after the ball hasn’t come easy to Jack. He is shooting 46.6% from the field, and 64.9% from the free throw line.

Dane Miller SR (7.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.0 blkpg) 6-6 G/F When he plays to his strengths, he can be one of the best rebounding wings in the Big East. But he struggles with being consistent. He shoots 48.7% from the field, 17.6% from the free throw line and 67.4% from the free throw line.

Mike Poole JR (4.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-5 G he has an all-around offensive game and is the leader if this Rutgers team. He is shooting 36.7% from the field, 32% from the 3 point line and 61.1% from the free throw line.

Jerome Seagears SOPH (5.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.4 apg) 6-1 G He leads the team in assist but he’s not a true point man. The Knights don’t really have one of those, so they allow their guards to do a little of everything. While Seagears can shoot with range and pass, he struggles to make the right decisions at times. He shoots 34.9% from the field, 37.5% from the 3 point line and 70% from the free throw line.

-Bench

Austin Johnson SR (5.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.6 apg) 6-8 F is a solid contributor who lost his part-time starter role to Judge and is used as a reliable backup, albeit one who probably needs to be more aggressive on the boards. He shoots 55.4% from the field and 58.1% from the free throw line.

Eli Carter SOPH (15.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.3 apg) 6-2 G He is one of of Rutgers top returning scorers. He has the ability to score inside and out, distribute and play some sticky D. He is shooting 38.2% from the field, 29.2% from the 3 point line and 90.2% from the free throw line.

Malick Kone SOPH (2.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-5 F He plays limited minutes but when in the game he is Rutgers most consistent perimeter shooter. He is shooting 48.8% from the field, and 66.7% from the free throw line.

Myles Mack SOPH (12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.5 apg) 5-9 G is one of those guys that comes off the bench and gives his team some major offensive output. He shoots 50.9% from the field, 46.1% from the 3 point line and is excellent from the free throw line at 93.8%.

Derrick Randall SOPH (1.3 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-8 F/C Rice call him the most improved player on his roster. When in the game he is a decent scorer and good rebounder. He shoots 46.7% from the field and 83.3% from the free throw line.

The game will be played Wednesday at the RAC. The RAC is renowned for being one of the loudest arenas in college basketball when at maximum capacity. The trapezoidal design of the building allows the crowd noise to resonate, creating a deafening environment. The RAC has even been described as being “louder than a 747 at Newark Airport.” ESPN’s Jay Bilas has lauded the RAC, saying, “The Scarlet Knights play great there, and the crowd is right on top of you and intimidating.” – (wikipedia)

With that being said it is the only advantage that Rutgers will have on Wednesday night against our Cardinals. The Scarlet Knights are moving in the right direction, but they remain young and lack the experience to make any kind of real run. We have the better team in all facets of the game. After the Cards 3 game stumble they seem to be back on the right track. I look for big games from our back-court of Siva and Smith as their experience and leadership will take over this game from the less experienced and younger back-court of the Scarlet Knights. We will also hold a distinguished advantage over their front-court. Dieng, and Behanan especially as they are much more physical than any of the Scarlet Knight players. This one should be an easy victory for the Cards and they should win this one going away.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 75 Rutgers 57

GAME #22 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Golden Eagles”

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It’s going to be a super Sunday in the Yum Center when the #25 Marquette Golden Eagles (15-4, 6-1 Big East) come to town to face our #12 Louisville Cardinals (17-4, 5-3 Big East). This series began in 1951 and the programs have met at least once each year since 1996. Our Cards have claimed seven of the last nine outings, including last year’s quarterfinal contest (84-71) in the Big East Conference Championship. These teams have faced off a total of 78 times in program history, with the Cardinals owning a 42-26 overall advantage.

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Marquette lost a lot of production last season but have plenty of depth at the guard position, and intriguing players all over the floor. It’s a really interesting, and versatile team. Somehow Buzz Williams always finds a way for his team to function. The Golden Eagles apply full-court pressure and play a fast-paced brand of basketball. They play hard and do most things well, but they don’t do anything great and can be erratic at times on both ends of the floor. They are ranked in the top 5 in several Big East categories 3rd in scoring offense 69.6pg, 4th in scoring margin at +6.0, 5th in field goal percentage 43.7%pg, 3rd in field goal percentage defense 38.4%pg, 4th in rebounding offense at 36.4, 3rd in rebounding defense at 31.3, 1st in rebounding margin at +5.1, 5th in blocked shots at 4.3pg, 3rd in assist/turnover ratio at 1.3 and 3rd in defensive rebounding at 26.3. Year after year this team scores points, and their defense has ranged from average to good. This team is ranked nationally 108th in points per game at 70.1, 156th in rebounding per game at 35.6, 63rd in assist per game at 14.9 and 48th on field goal percentage at 46.3%. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 112.0 ranked 12th and their adj efficiency on defense at 92.9 ranked 67th. He has them ranked 25th overall. They are tied for first place in the Big East and their current RPI is 17. A win over the Golden Eagles on Sunday would give the Cards their highest value win of the year. They are currently 0-2 vs RPI top 25.

In-conference offense: 3pt-26.1%, 2pt-43.7%. FT-72.9%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-13.3pg, Steals-7.1pg, Blocks-3.8

Coach Buzz Williams: “I am not sure we have a go-to guy, but I do think as a unit, we have a variety of ways we can function.”

The Golden Eagle Players:

-Projected Starters

Juan Anderson SOPH (3.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-6 F played in 24 games last season, underwent shoulder surgery in May. He can use his lanky frame to defend bigger wings and smaller post players, allowing Buzz the freedom he loves with switchable defenders. His FG%-41.4%, 3pt%-36%, FT%-54.2%

Chris Otule SR (4.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.1 apg) 6-11 C is a true center who is counted on this season for rebounding, shot blocking and post defense. His FG%-60%, FT%-50% and he has 57 rebounds with 17 blocked shots on the season.

Junior Cadougan SR (8.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) 6-1 G has logged a lot of possessions as Marquette’s pass-always point guard, and he filled that role as the starter last year. He doesn’t look for his own shot, but he finds his teammates in the best possible spot while taking care of the basketball. He is 12th in the Big East in assist at 3.9 a game, 4th in assist/turnover ratio. His FG%-43.5%, 3pt%-20%, FT%-76%

Trent Lockett SR (7.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 apg) 6-5 G played three seasons at Arizona State before returning closer to home to finish his career in Milwaukee. In his last season as a Sun Devil he was his team’s leading scorer and had a great year shooting the ball. His FG%-38.1%, 3pt%-28.6%, FT%-73.7%

Vander Blue JR (14.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.8 apg) 6-4 G has continued to progress throughout his career on both ends of the floor. And he is having a breakout season this year. He had 30 points in the last game against USF and has reached double-figures in nine straight games plus 12 of last 13. He is 7th in the Big East in scoring. His FG%-45.3%, 3pt%-32.4%, FT%-72.2%

-Bench

Jamil Wilson JR (8.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.6 apg) 6-7 F an athletic small forward who has made strides with the team since transferring from Oregon after his freshman season. The team leader in blocked shots last season and has 16 this season. His FG%-48.4%, 3pt%-36.6%, FT%-80.6%

Jake Thomas JR (2.2 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-3 G sat out last year after transferring from South Dakota and has a decent perimeter game. His FG%-31.6%, 3pt%-28.1%, FT%-71%

Davante Gardner JR (12.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.8 apg) the team’s top returning scorer. He does the job of carrying the load inside. He is 19th in the Big East in scoring, 12th in rebounding, 5th in field goal percentage, 4th in free-throw percentage and 10th in blocked shots. His FG%-57.7%, FT%-84.8%

Todd Mayo SOPH (6.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.1 apg) 6-3 G the brother of NBA star O.J. Mayo. Mayo returns as the team’s most prolific 3-point marksman. His FG%-35.1%, 3pt-30.4%, FT-77.8%

Derrick Wilson SOPH (1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.0 apg) 6-1 G he gets his work done on the defensive end of the floor when he is in the game. He had a higher ratio of steals to minutes played than anyone on the team last season except Crowder. He has 14 steals this season in 278 minutes played. His FG%-35.1%, 3pt%-25%, FT-47.1%

Buzz Williams has a system of high-pressure defense and high-octane offense where baskets are scored in transition and everyone contributes. Does this sound familiar? Our Cards match up very well with the Golden Eagles and always have because their styles of play are so similar. I think our players thrive in these types of games. In an up-tempo, faster game with chaotic full-court pressure, Siva should thrive. His speed and defensive ability allow him to have an impact on a game without scoring. I also expect Russ to be in full throttle. Dieng and Behanan should have big games in this one and I look for Blackshear to play well in his return game back. This is a big mid-season match-up and I expect our Cards to win in a very exciting game.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Marquette 73

GAME #21 BEAK BREAKDOWN “The Panthers”

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Our Louisville Cardinals (16-4, 4-3 Big East) find themselves needing a win more than any other time this season as they face the Pittsburgh Panthers (17-4, 5-3 Big East) Monday Night in the Yum Center. This will be a battle of two Big East foes going in different directions. Our Cards are trending downward having lost their last three games in conference play, but the Panthers are playing some of their best basketball of the season winning their last four games in conference play. Their 38 point win against DePaul on Saturday was their biggest margin of victory ever in a Big East contest. In the Cards loss on Saturday they were held to their lowest point total of the season.

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Jamie Dixon is in his 10th season leading the Panthers. Over the last 11 years, Pitt ranks among the nation’s top five programs in winning percentage (.761, 312-98). During that remarkable run, the Panthers never reached the Final Four. But they did go to the NCAA Elite Eight once, made five Sweet 16 appearances and won six Big East titles. They didn’t make it in the NCAA Tournament last year due to some injuries to key players. They are healthy this year and their 10 man rotation that includes returning players Tray Woodall, Dante Taylor and Lamar Patterson have the Panthers back to their winning ways and in sole possession of third place in a chaotic Big East Conference. The Panthers have a very balanced attack on offense having 3 players averaging in double figures and 4 others averaging over 6 points a game. They rank 11th nationally in field goal percentage, 7th in scoring margin at 17.7 and 6th in assist per game at 17.6. Kenpom has their Adj efficiency on offense at 117.5 ranked 8th.
They can also get after you defensively as this team ranks first in the land in defensive rebounds allowed at just 23.8 per game, and sixth in total points allowed at 54.4 per night. Kenpom has their Adj efficiency on defense at 87.1 ranked 21st. He has them ranked 6th overall. Their current RPI is 47.

In-conference offense: 3pt-34.2%, 2pt-44.9%, FT-64.8%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.8pg/4th, Steals-7pg/6th, Blocks-4.5pg/4th

Coach Jamie Dixon: “I think our guys are recognizing what we’ve been trying to get across to them defensively.”

The Panther Players:

-Projected Starters

Lamar Patterson JR (10.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.3 apg) 6-5 F a guy with soft hands who is both comfortable with and effective at distributing the rock. He is also a great defender, rebounder and shooter. He ranks in the Big East 13th 50.8/FG%, 15th 37.9/3PT%, 10th 1.8/steals,

Talib Zanna JR (11.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-9 F is a strong, physical athlete who combines skill and athleticism to create matchup problems. He loves to attack off the dribble from the outside and is an aggressive and physical rebounder. He is shooting 55.9/FG% and 67.4/FT%.

Steven Adams FR (6.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.6 apg) 7-0 C His defensive play has been compared to that of Greg Oden, and he emerged as a consensus top 10 recruit. ESPN tabbed him a five-star player, the No. 4 center and the No. 6 player overall in the class of 2012. Last year Big East opponents ate the Panthers alive in the paint, making 51 percent of their twos with Adams patrolling the paint those days are over. Or at least until he’s picked in the NBA draft. He ranks in the Big East 13th in rebounding, 4th in blocked shots at 2.1pg. He is shooting 58.2/FG%, and 35.9/FT%.

Tray Woodall SR (10.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 5.8 apg) 6-0 G is back on the court for his senior season after a frustrating year in which he battled through a severe abdominal injury. He has a knack for hitting clutch shots, leads the Panthers in assists this season. He ranks in the Big East 5th in assist, 11th in steals at 1.6pg, 3rd in assist/turnover ratio at +2.9. He is shooting 47.6/FG%, 37.3/3PT% and 75.7/FT%.

James Robinson FR (6.7 ppg, 2,0 rpg, 3.9 apg) 6-3 G is nicknamed “Mr. Consistent,” Robinson was a member of the 2012 USA Basketball U18 national team. ESPN rated Robinson a four-star recruit and the No. 4 point guard in the country. He is shooting 38.3/FG%, 33.3/3PT% and 77.3/FT%.

-Bench

Dante Taylor SR (4.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.6 apg) 6-9 F is one of the finest offensive rebounders in the country. The former McDonald’s All-American provides a good spark off the bench for Pitt. He shoots 56.1/FG%, and 65.5/FT%.

Trey Zeigler JR (6.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.1 apg) 6-5 G/F is unlike most shooting guards in that he’s not big on chucking 3-pointers he’s taken just three all year and instead relies on slashing to the rim or pulling up for a midrange jumper. That means he’s around the basket quite a bit, making him an effective rebounder. Nearly half 14 of his 39 boards have come off the offensive glass and he’s shown a knack for tipping a ball to a teammate for an easy put back. He is shooting 52.2/FG% and 55.6/FT%.

J.J. Moore JR (9.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-6 F is a constant scoring source off the bench for the Panthers. He is a great athlete and has 37 inch vertical leap. He can score from all over the floor. He is shooting 43.4/FG%, 27.8/3PT% and 85.5/FT%.

Cameron Wright SOPH (4.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.0 apg) 6-4 G enters his third and redshirt sophomore season at Pitt after contributing primarily at the off-guard position last year. A quick and athletic defender with size, Wright is described as a “complete” package who fits perfectly into Pitt’s style of play. He is shooting 52.9/FG%, 60/3PT% and 47.6/FT%.

Durand Johnson FR (4.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-6 F is a terrific shooter with NBA range who can make big shots and score at a high level. Johnson is as smooth a shooter as they come. He has a great shot fake, range on his jumper and quick trigger with the ability to pull off the catch or step back. He is shooting 39.2/FG%, 36.4/3PT% and 72.2/FT%.

Coach Pitino said “We have to get this win. It‘s a must game for us.” And while agree with this statement for the mental health of the team I don’t necessarily think it is a must win from a season standpoint. Granted we have lost 3 in a row but if you look at those losses closely you will see that they aren’t that serious in the big picture. Cuse is one of the best teams in the country, GTown is also a very good team especially at home and Nova is trending upward after beating Cuse.

I think the recipe for a win is quite simple. This team just needs to play the game they are capable of. Despite the misfortunes of the past week this Cardinal team is still a very talented group. We got a player in Russ that is 10th in the league in scoring, Gorgui is #1 in the league in rebounding, Chane is 8th in the league in rebounding, Chane is also #1 in the league in steals, Peyton is 4th in the league in steals, Luke is 6th in the league in 3PT%, Gorgui is 2nd in the league in blocked shots, Peyton is 7th in the league in assist/turnover ratio, Gorgui is 1st in the league in offensive rebounding, Chane is 4th in offensive rebounding and Gorgui is 1st in defensive rebounding.

With this many players in the top 10 of the statistics in the league there is no need to panic. They just need to refocus. And Monday night I think you will see that group of focused, hungry athletes we watched earlier this season.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Pittsburgh 69