The Cardinals are back at it again on Saturday afternoon in the Yum Center and look to build on their mid-week sweep of Pitt. They will face NC State in another ACC battle. This is NC State’s very first trip ever to the Yum Center, and is the very first time Coach Pitino has faced a NC State team. Louisville is tied 8-8 in its series with NC State, last facing the Wolfpack 27 years ago. NC State has won three of the last four match ups, including the last when the Wolfpack prevailed 101-89 on Feb. 13, 1988. NC State has lost five of their last six games and is 10th in the ACC. The Cardinals have won five out of their last six games and are 4th in the ACC.

COACH PITINO TALKS NC STATE

The Wolfpack hasn’t had trouble with losing as much as they have had trouble closing out games. Four of NC State’s five most recent losses have been by five or fewer points. They are a very talented and competitive group. On the season, NC State is averaging 71.5 points on 44.6% shooting from the field, and 36.4% from the three. Leading the way for the Pack is Trevor Lacey (16.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.4 apg), Ralston Turner (12.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.1 apg), Anthony Barber (11.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.6 apg), Kyle Washington (7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.5 apg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (5.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.6 apg). The North Carolina State Wolfpack have four players averaging at least 7.6 points. Defensively, NC State is allowing 66 points, 40.3% from the field, 32.9% shooting from the three, and has given up 68 or more points in four of its last five games. NC State is 63rd in the ratings percentage index (RPI) with the nation’s fifth-toughest schedule and 44th in the Sagarin Ratings through Feb. 11.

2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

NC State 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #55
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-99.3 ranks 124th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-110.5 ranks 36th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 73-62 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals hope to keep things rolling in the ACC after winning five of their last six games. They are averaging 71.9 points on 43.9% shooting from the field, and 29.1% from the three. Terry Rozier is averaging 18.5 points and 5.7 rebounds while Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.8 points and 9.2 rebounds. Chris Jones is dishing 3.7 assists and Wayne Blackshear is grabbing 4.6 rebounds. The Cards hadn’t been getting anything out of the bench but on Wednesday the bench scored 8 points, had 12 rebounds, 3 assist, 2 blocks, and 1 steal.

Wayne may not be available for this game due to a hip issue. Expect a game-time decision with him. If he doesn’t play I expect to see a starting line-up of Quentin Snider, Chris Jones, Terry Rozier, Montrezl Harrell, and Chinanu Onuaku.
Defensively, Louisville is allowing 29.1 percent shooting from deep and has given up 63 or less points in five of its last eight games.

I know the thing I’ll be watching for in the game on Saturday is whether or not the Cardinals bench can keep gaining momentum. I thought those guys really took a step forward on Wednesday and I’d love to see them build on that against NC State. I will also be interested in seeing how Chris Jones recovers from his dismal outing in the last game. It’s no secret that he landed in Coach Pitino’s doghouse not playing for the last 12 minutes in the second half against Pitt. This young man has made a lot of progress this season in his game and his attitude. I hope he can put the last one behind him and continue with his great ACC play.

The Cardinals are going to need the bench and Chris Jones at their best to win this one. NC State is a hungry team desperately needing a win to keep their NCAA tourney streak alive. Mark Gottfried, in his fourth season at NC State, will be working toward mentoring his team into the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight season. The Wolfpack has made the Big Dance in each of his first three seasons, making Gottfried the first Pack coach and just the fourth in ACC history to achieve that feat. And these guys are battle tested playing the 4th toughest schedule in the country this season. This NC State team is going to be a very talented, hungry, and motivated bunch. They play great interior defense that will also make them very tough on Saturday.

This game has all the makings of a trap. The old classic “what the crap just happened kind of games”. I think it is going to be a very hard fought close game throughout and I just hope the Cards can carry some of that momentum from that terrific second half they had Wednesday.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 68 NC State 61

We are coming down the home stretch of another Louisville Basketball season, and five of the Cardinals’ eight remaining regular season games are at home in the KFC Yum Center. The first of those games will be on Wednesday night when the Pitt Panthers come to town. Louisville has a 9-5 advantage in its series with Pittsburgh, winning the last five match-ups. The Cardinals won 80-68 at Pitt earlier this season. The Cardinals are currently 5th in the ACC while Pitt is currently 8th in the ACC standings.

Pitt enters the game in Louisville having won its last three games and that’s their second longest winning streak of the season. The Cardinals are the fourth ranked opponent Pitt will face this season and third in the top-10. On the season, Pitt is averaging 69 points on 44.6% shooting from the field, and 33.2% from the three point line. Leading the way for Pitt this season is Michael Young (13.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.1 apg), Jamel Artis (12.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.1 apg), James Robinson (10.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5.1 apg), Cameron Wright (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Chris Jones (8.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.0 apg). They have five players averaging at least seven points.

Defensively, Pittsburgh is allowing 64.9 points on 44.3% shooting from the field, 34.4% shooting from deep and has given up 70 or more points in five of its last six games. Pitt does a great job of taking care of the basketball and sharing the ball. Pitt has a 1.66 assist: turnover ratio, which ranks No. 3 nationally and has turned the ball over only 10.0 times per game, which ranks No. 10 nationally. James Robinson and Josh Newkirk alone have combined for a 2.58 assist: turnover ratio (206 assists/80 turnovers). Pitt is 62nd in the ratings percentage index (RPI) and 79th in the Sagarin Ratings through Feb. 8.

Pitt 2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

Pitt 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #96
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-103.4 ranks 205th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-110.4 ranks 37th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 71-58 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals hope to keep things rolling with wins in five of their last seven games. The Cardinals are averaging 72 points on 43.6% shooting from the field and 30.4% from the three point line. The Cards have shot a combined 47.5% from the field in its last five games and have shot above 47% from the field on 11 occasions this season, including seven times in the last 11 games. They followed their 19% first half shooting performance at Virginia by shooting 52% in the second half. Terry Rozier is averaging 18.3 points and 2.5 assists while Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.2 points and nine rebounds. Chris Jones is dishing 3.8 assists and Wayne Blackshear is shooting 38 percent from the field. The Louisville Cardinals have four double-digit scorers and the bench has been scoreless in four games this season, including the last two. Defensively, Louisville is allowing 58.5 points, 37.3% shooting from the field, and 29% shooting from deep. They have given up 63 or less points in four of their last seven games.

The Cardinals have been shooting a lot better on the road than at the Yum Center this season, and hopefully that will change on Wednesday night. The Cardinals had problems turning over Virginia to get some of those easy baskets and things won’t get any easier with Pitt as they are a team that takes very good care of the ball and are very methodical in their offensive sets. I really hope we start to see some better production specifically from Snider, Aaron, Gill, and in that 5 spot from Nanu, Mango and Anas. If we could just get a total of 10 points and 5 boards from these six players that would be huge for this team heading into March.

Should be a good battle as Pitt has continued to improve and they do a lot of things right and have some solid inside play. This one will be a grinder…

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 74 Pitt 62

In a conference like the ACC there is never a point in the season where it gets any easier, and it certainly isn’t going to get any easier for the Cardinals on Saturday night. It will be a battle of two teams who have a similar defensive philosophy and two top ACC teams still going for the conference crown. The Cardinals are 3-5 all-time vs. the Cavaliers in a series that dates back to 1923-24. This is the first time they’ve played each other since Feb. 17, 1990, when the Cardinals defeated the Cavaliers 72-56 in Charlottesville. Everick Sullivan had 22 points and Felton Spencer had 11 points for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 1-2 against the Cavaliers in Charlottesville and the teams are meeting for the first time at John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia is currently first in the ACC at 8-1, while Louisville is third at 7-2. Virginia head coach Tony Bennett and Virginia Center Mike Tobey, along with Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell helped Team USA to the gold medal at the 2013 FIBA U19 World Championship in Prague, Czech Republic.

COACH PITINO TALKS ABOUT VIRGINIA

The 3rd ranked Virginia Cavaliers improved to 20-1 on the season after defeating the 12th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels, 75-64, this past Monday. Virginia is ranked 3rd in the RPI Standings and has played the 7th ranked SOS. On the season, the Cavaliers have been led by Justin Anderson (13.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 apg), Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg), Anthony Gill (11.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Mike Tobey (7.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg), and Darion Atkins (7.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg). Virginia is averaging 68.3 ppg (ranked 152nd) on 47.2% shooting (ranked 36th). As of Feb. 4, the Cavaliers rank in the top five nationally in eight defensive categories: points per game (1st), assists per game (2nd), rebounds per game (2nd), true shooting percentage (2nd), field goal percentage (3rd), points per possession (3rd), possessions per 40 minutes (3rd) and effective shooting percentage (4th). As of Feb. 4, the Cavaliers rank in the top 10 nationally in three offensive categories: assist-to-turnover ratio (6th), defensive rebound percentage (7th) and rebound percentage (7th). Virginia has limited its opponents to 47 fast break points, Leading the nation in scoring defense allowing 50.8 points per game, Virginia has held three teams under 30 points for the game this year.

Not only will the Cardinals be challenged more on the defensive end than in any game this season they will face the best post team they have faced all season. Virginia is averaging 31 points in the paint, while limiting its opponents to 21 points per game in the paint. Post players Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey and Darion Atkins are each shooting 51 percent or better, and are averaging 18 rebounds. Virginia has out-rebounded its opponent in 17 of 21 games, and is second in the ACC with a +9.5 rebounding margin. Gill, Tobey, Atkins and Isaiah Wilkins have combined for 60 blocked shots.

2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #2
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-86.1 ranks 2nd
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-118.4 ranks 5th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Virginia winning the game 63-54 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have a 43-10 record in February over the last eight years (since 2007-08), winning their last 12 straight in the month. It will be a very tall task to keep that streak alive on Saturday night. The Cardinals have been led by the core four Terry Rozier (18.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.1 spg), Montrezl Harrell (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.1 apg), Chris Jones (13.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg 4.0 apg), and Wayne Blackshear (11.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg). The Cardinals have been successful even though the 5 spot with Chinanu Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang is only averaging 3.3 points and 5.1 rebounds a game this season. I don’t think they can survive on Saturday night without a better effort from these two guys. The three biggest contributors off the bench are Anton Gill, Shaqquan Aaron, and Quentin Snider. Combined they are averaging 2.3 points and 1.06 rebounds a game this season. I would like to see one of these guys have a breakout game against the Cavaliers. In its five ACC road games this season, Louisville has shot a collective 53.2% from the field (141-of-265).

Louisville had a nice road victory against Miami and they did an excellent job limiting Miami’s biggest weapons, Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan. They will have to do the same thing against Virginia’s two top guys Justin Anderson, and Malcolm Brogdon. This game is going to be decided by the team who wins the defensive battle as both teams have been prone to going on long streaks of no offensive. I think whatever team has that surprise performance or stand-out offensive player will come out on the winning end. Hopefully that will be the Cardinals.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 60 Virginia 55

Our Cardinals are on the road in South Beach tonight to take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC competition. Louisville is 7-2 in the all-time series against Miami, which dates back to the 1950-51 season. The Cards are 4-2 on the road against the Canes, 2-0 at home and 1-0 at neutral sites. Louisville won the last matchup with Miami, defeating the Canes, 82-59, on Dec. 23, 2006 in Louisville. Louisville is 1-1 vs. Miami when they are ranked, losing when No. 7 in January of 1961, and winning when No. 10 in December of 2005.

The Hurricanes have split their last 10 games and Louisville is the sixth ranked team they’ve played this season. Miami is averaging 69 points a game shooting 44.1% from the field and 36.3% from the three. Sheldon McClellan is leading the way for the Hurricanes averaging 14.5 points and 5.1 rebounds. He is No. 79 in the country in field goal percentage (50.5%). Angel Rodriguez is averaging 13.4 points and 4.5 assists. He is No. 24 in the country in steals per game, No .30 in total steals. Tonye Jekiri is grabbing 10 rebounds a game. He averages 7.2 defensive rebounds per game, which is the 11th-best average in the country. Manu Lecomte is shooting 45.4 percent from the field. The Miami Hurricanes have seven players averaging at least 5.2 points.

Miami has hit at least eight shots from long range in five of the past six games and 14 times this season. In ACC play, Angel rodriguez leads the team with 13 and Davon reed has knocked down 12, closely trailed by omar Sherman, Sheldon McClellan and Manu Lecomte with 10. The Canes have recorded 18 plus points off the bench in 14 of 21 games this season. In ACC play, Miami has averaged 20.8 bench points per game.

Defensively, Miami is allowing 62.7 points and opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 32.6% shooting from deep. They have given up 62 or less points in four of their last seven games.

2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #61
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-97.7 ranks 95th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-108.0 ranks 59th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 66-62 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have won four of their last six games. On the season they are averaging 73.6 points on 43.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% from the three. Terry Rozier is averaging 18.3 points and 2.5 assists while Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.3 points and 9.2 rebounds. Chris Jones is dishing 3.9 assists and Wayne Blackshear is grabbing 4.8 rebounds.
Defensively, they are allowing 59 points, 37.6% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from the three. They have given up 68 or less points in five of their last seven games.

We will see tonight if the Cardinals can build upon their solid outing from this past weekend. Miami has a tendency to play up to their competition and they will be ready for this game. Our guys are going to have to control the boards and our bench will need some production. These are two areas where the Hurricanes have excelled this season. I don’t think they’ll have an answer for Montrezl who I think will carry a lot of momentum into this game. And the play of our backcourt will be too much for them to overcome. Cards should earn another road victory.

The Beak Prediction
Louisville 78 Miami 62

Here we go again… The Cardinals and the Tar Heels will play their second game against each other on Saturday afternoon. The Tar Heels beat our Cardinals by a point, 72-71, three weeks ago in Chapel Hill. Marcus Paige hit a layup with 8.5 seconds to go to give Carolina the lead, and Louisville missed a pair of shots in the final seconds. North Carolina leads this series 10-3. Saturday will be just the third time the Tar Heels have played in Louisville they are 0-2 in previous games. Carolina is 6-0 all-time against Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino and Roy Williams is 4-1 against Louisville (3-0 at UNC). The game will be a White-Out for the home team. The Cardinals are 5-3 in White-Out games.