There are just two spots left in the Final Four in Indy next weekend. Our Cardinals have defied all odds and will be playing for one of those spots. They will be playing against a team that has traveled a similar path and defied their own odds. The Cards and Michigan State will play for the ninth time in their history. The Cards lead the series 5-3. Ironically the last time these teams played back in 2012 the narrative was similar. The Cardinals were on an improbable run in the NCAA and beat 1 seed Michigan State 57-44 in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite Eight and ultimately the Final Four.

This group isn’t as good as that 2012 Michigan State team but even though the names have change, their recipe for success remains the same. They have a great coach, a balanced scoring attack, and relentless team rebounding and intense man-to-man defense. They are also really good at defending the perimeter.

The Spartans have won seven of their last eight games. On the season they are averaging 71.2 points on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% from the three. Izzo has a seasoned rotation led by two seniors Branden Dawson (11.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG), and Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.4 APG). They are followed by three solid juniors in Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Bryn Forbes (9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Matt Costello (7.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG). Dawson is a beast and just may be the best player on the team. Forbes shooting 42.8%, Valentine shooting 41.6% and Trice shooting 37.4% are all very big threats from deep, and all have been hot during their tournament run. The Spartans have four players averaging at least 8.6 points.

As I mentioned above Izzo’s teams play a sticky man-to-man defense that has given up 63 or fewer points in four of its last five games. They are allowing teams to shoot 39.4% from the field and 31.5% from the three-point line. They will crash the defensive boards hard and are ranked in the top 20 in the nation.

Michigan State’s NATIONAL RANKS

Michigan State’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #15
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-95.5 ranks 47th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.9 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Michigan State winning the game 65-64 based on his indexes.

There may not be a player left in the tournament that has had a bigger come up, or that has been bigger for his team than Terry Rozier. This kid had 17 points and 14 rebounds against NC State. His ability to take over on the offensive end and ability to rebound will be huge against the Spartans.

And you won’t find a player that works harder than Montrezl Harrell has during this tournament. He has played 114 minutes, scored 46 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. There’s not a player on the other side that will get after it like Montrezl will on Sunday afternoon.

What about that senior Wayne Blackshear who has now played in more NCAA games than any other player in Louisville’s history. His team has followed his lead and his determination and will to win has rubbed off. He is the guy that got his teammates to believe.

Or the local kid Quentin Snider who dreamed of playing for the hometown Cards as a kid and now has become a big reason they are in the Elite Eight. He hit clutch free-throws in his first NCAA game and played 37 minutes without a turnover in his first Sweet 16 game. He is a stone cold basketball player and doesn’t flinch under pressure. He is unreal.

Guys like Mango whose defense has been unreal, and Gill who comes off the bench to take over the game…

Louisville 70 Michigan State 63

Just a few weeks ago a lot of Cardinal fans as well as the talking heads were wondering if Louisville would make it past the first round game of the NCAA Tournament. Now here they are in the Sweet 16 and just two wins away from another Final Four. The Cardinals overcame a “Big” obstacle in their first round game against UC Irvine and then just completely overwhelmed a UNI team that most were saying had a legit chance to make it to a Final Four themselves. Now awaiting the Cardinals is conference foe NC State.

The Wolfpack has made a great run through the tournament after having a bi-polar type of season. Guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament and there hasn’t been a better trio during March Madness than that of Ralston Turner (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG), Trevor Lacey (16.1 PPG, 4.5 PPG) and Anthony Barber (11.8 PPG, 3.8 APG). Mark Gottfried runs his offense strictly through these three guards. Lacey is the dynamic scorer, Turner is a sharp shooter and Cat Barber is a lane slashing assist machine. These three guys complement each other very nicely. They are a big reason why NC State is in the Sweet 16.

The rest of their team hasn’t been too shabby either. The Wolfpack is averaging 70 points a game shooting 43.7% from the field, and 35.4% from the three. As I mentioned above the guards make this team go but this NC State team is well balanced. They have shooters and big men who can finish around the rim. Every player has a defined role on this team. Turner, Lacey and Barber lead in scoring but they are followed by Lennard Freeman (3.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG), Abdul-Malik Abu (5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG), C BeeJay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Kyle Washington (7.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG), and Caleb Martin (5.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG). On the offensive end of the floor all these guys can handle the ball and each of them are capable of creating their own scoring opportunities. They are a very tough group to guard when they have their mojo going. Their offense is the reason they have won five of their last six games.

The Wolfpack defense is also very adequate. They play an aggressive man-to-man with a very fast Barber hounding the back-court and bigs Anya and Abu banging in the front-court. They are allowing 65.5 points a game, allowing 40% shooting from the field and 33.1% from the three. They have given up 68 or less points in seven of their last 10 games.

NC State’s NATIONAL RANKS

NC State’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #31
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-97.7 ranks 81st
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-111.6 ranks 27th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 66-63 based on his indexes.

Here we are Cardinal fans again just two games away from another Final Four. This group has bonded together through much adversity and find themselves on the cusp of adding their own lore to a great Cardinal tradition. At the beginning of March Madness I wrote an article listing my 5 keys to winning a NCAA Title. When I wrote it there were doubts about this group of Cardinals possessing those keys, but as we have progressed over the last couple of weeks I am seeing some of these things.

A Cause: I don’t know if they have one common cause but this group wants to win for one another now. I have seen a very cohesive group over the last couple of weeks.

A Great Leader: Wayne Blackshear has taken on this role. He has taken this team on his shoulders and it was his will to win that helped them get past UC Irvine. Wayne wants to keep adding to his legacy as a Cardinal and he’s not ready for it to end. Terry Rozier has also taken his game to another level.

The Freshman or Player that comes out of nowhere: Quentin Snider has come out of nowhere. This kid has the moxie of a grizzled vet and he hasn’t even seen a full season of playing time. Those free-throws he hit in that first game were huge and he keeps getting better every time out.

A Bench: This has been the biggest question mark all season but even this has started to evolve over the last couple of weeks. Onuaku, Johnson, Anas, Aaron, Gill and Levitch were able to come in against UNI to give the starters a breather and they provided solid minutes. Still a long way to go but it’s coming around.

A Coach: Other than a potential match-up in the Elite Eight with Tom Izzo we will have an advantage the rest of the way if we kept winning. Nobody does March better and nobody gets their team ready faster in these quick turnaround games than Coach Pitino. He’ll have the game plan. His team will just have to execute it.

I’m not saying this team is going to win a championship, but we are closer to looking like a team that could. And this group has come a long way especially over the last couple of weeks. A very tough game waits on Friday night. To beat the Wolfpack they have to stop Lacey. That is the top priority. Doing that forces Turner and Barber to shoulder more of the load than they would normally feel comfortable doing. This is an average team if their guards aren’t controlling the game. And this team will get flustered quickly if the Cards come out and lock them down right from the start.

Louisville 68 NC State 64

Unfortunately I remember it like it was yesterday sitting in my living room in a state of shock after the 4 seed Cardinals had just lost to in-state 13 seed Morehead State in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. They had the Rodmanesque future pro in Kenneth Faried who scored 12 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. It wasn’t one of the better sports moments for Louisville fans.

On Friday I had flashbacks of that unpleasant moment when the 4 seed Cardinals were in a dog fight with 13 seed UC Irvine in their first round game in the NCAA Tourney. The Anteaters had the Manute Boesque future pro in Mamadou NDiaye who bullied the Cardinals around in the post and scored 12 points.

Friday things could have been very reminiscent of that game back in 2011, but instead the Cardinals pulled this one out thanks to the Game day heroics of freshman Quentin Snider and senior Wayne Blackshear and now they move on to the third round on Sunday to face the University of Northern Iowa.

The University of Northern Iowa is one of those teams that any college basketball fan loves to cheer for unless they are playing against your school. I cheered for them on their run in 2010 when they upset Kansas. And this team is very reminiscent of that group. They have a group of assassins when it comes to the three point shot and they bring four guys off their bench that shoot 40% from deep. They aren’t going to come at you with one or two guys. They come at you with 10. They play true team ball.

They are averaging 66 points a game shooting 48.2% from the field and 40% from the three. They are led by their do everything star Seth Tuttle who averages 15.3 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. The Wooden Award finalist leads the Panthers in points, rebounds, assists and blocks. The rest of their starting line-ups are as follows. Marvin Singleton (5.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Jeremy Morgan (5.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG), Matt Bohannon (5.6 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Deon Mitchell (7.3 PPG, 2.4 APG). They also have three other players averaging between 5.0 and 7.8 PPG. This group is very deliberate and they’ll milk the shot clock on every possession waiting for a moment to take the best shot.

On the defensive end of the floor they aren’t going to wow you with their athleticism or their speed, but they will impress you with their attention to detail and fundamentals. They do a great job of keeping a body between the ball and the basket. They finished the season ranked 4th in the country in points allowed giving up only 54.3 points a game. Having that deep bench works more towards an advantage on this end of the floor and they keep fresh bodies coming at you in waves.

NATIONAL RANKS

Northern Iowa’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #9
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-93.3 ranks 19th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.6 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Northern Iowa winning the game 59-57 based on his indexes.

I wouldn’t necessarily call them an unlikely cast of big performers for Louisville but I think it was surprising to some that Quentin and Wayne stepped up on the offensive end and that Mango stepped up on the defensive end on Friday. It is going to take that and then some on Sunday night for the Cardinals to advance to the Sweet 16 for the 21st time (4th straight). To win a game like this it’s also going to take a big effort from guys like Montrezl and Terry. They can’t have a sub-par performance in this one. They will have an athletic advantage and they’ll need to utilize it on both ends of the floor. The bench guys will also need to produce some solid minutes to try and keep up with their depth advantage.

My keys to this game are for Louisville to dominate the boards and to utilize the press effectively. UNI doesn’t have many weaknesses but they are ranked 322nd out of 350 Division I teams in rebounding. When they have struggled this season they have gotten killed on the glass. Rebounding has been Louisville’s strength this season and has been the one constant. I also think the Cards will have to be effective in both their full and half court press. If they can get into the legs of their shooters it will hurt their accuracy.

This is going to be a very tough game, but the Cards hold one distinct advantage. Having a Hall of Fame coach who has seen it all is huge in these quick turnaround games of the tourney. He will have a blueprint to solve the UNI riddle. He will just need his team to follow that blueprint. The Cardinals are going to have to beat the Panthers because UNI is a team that isn’t going to beat themselves.

Louisville 60 UNI 51

It was an exciting first day of the NCAA Tournament and some teams extended the dance while some took their final bow. The wait is over and we’ll get to watch our Cardinals take to the floor for their first game in the Tourney against the UC Irvine Anteaters. These teams have never met on the hardwood. Our Cardinals will make their 41st appearance in the Tourney which ranks 5th nationally and it will be their 9th straight trip. The Anteaters will be making their very first appearance in the big dance.

UC Irvine head coach Russell Turner is a young coach who is just starting to create his legacy in the college basketball ranks. He like a lot of young coaches has to be very innovative and creative to be competitive in this challenging landscape. Struggling to get recruits over some of the other West Coast schools Tuner got creative in his approach and started reaching out internationally. As a result he has himself a pretty scrappy basketball team led by Will Nelson from England and Mamadou Ndiaye from Senegal.

Captured in the March Madness I found myself up late last week watching the Big West Conference Tournament. I even found myself cheering for the Anteaters to win. Watching them in the semi-finals and finals I learned a few things about this team. They play hard for their coach, they don’t quit and they’ll play defense on every trip on that end of the floor.

Using their size and that solid defense UC Irvine is 21-12 this season and won the Big West Conference Tournament. They were rewarded a 13th seed for their efforts. They are averaging 67.9 points a game shooting 46.1% from the field and 39% from the three. Will Davis II leads the Anteaters averaging 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds per game and he had a double-double in all of the conference tourney games. Luke Nelson is averaging 10.5 points. Mamadou Ndiaye is averaging 10.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and has had as many as 6 blocks in a game this season. Alex Young is averaging 9.6 points. Travis Souza is an excellent three point shooter and he is 47.4% from long range this season. UC Irvine shares the ball very well. All five starters’ average between 12.9 and 7.4 points per game, and the team finished the season 65th nationally in assists per game.

Defensively their perimeter defenders can be very aggressive, they really protect the rim and they make it really hard for opponents to score in the paint. They finished the season ranked 25th in the country in blocks per game. They are allowing 62.3 points and their opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field.

UC Irvine National Ranks:

UC Irvine’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #98
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-98.4 ranks 92nd
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-134.7 ranks 135th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 65-59 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals have been led by the same cast of players this season. The team goes as Terry, Montrezl and Wayne go. Here towards the end of the season we have started to see a supporting cast emerge in Quentin, Chinanu, and Mango. Word is that Jaylen Johnson has been really solid in practice over the last couple of weeks and that the coaching staff expect a big tournament from him. As I said when the ACC Tourney started it’s going to take more scoring from the bench guys to make a run and the time is now for it to happen.

I think creating turnovers and attacking the basket are going to be the keys in getting the victory in the first round. And with the way Irvine plays defense on the interior our guys are going to have to hit some jump shots.

Louisville 69 UC Irvine 57

Saturday is set up to be a very special day in the KFC Yum Center. Not only are we celebrating the efforts of two great players in Montrezl Harrell and Wayne Blackshear, but there is also a pretty good team in #2 Virginia coming to town. This will be another opportunity to get a great quality win before the selection and seeding process next weekend. Our Cardinals will also ultimately be playing for a double bye in next week’s ACC Tournament. Louisville trails Virginia 3-6 in this series, but has won two of the last three meetings. Virginia prevailed 52-47 in Charlottesville earlier this season.

Video | Rick Pitino previews Virginia game

The Cavaliers will be looking to extend their nine-game winning streak. Virginia is averaging 65.8 points on 46.3% shooting from the field, and 36% shooting from the three. They are being led this season by Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg), Anthony Gill (11.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 0.9 apg), Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg), Darion Atkins (7.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg), and London Perrantes (6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.7 apg). The Cavaliers are 13-0 on the road this season.

Defensively, Virginia is allowing 50 points a game, 35.5% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from the three. They have given up 60 or less points in eight straight games. They have held six teams under 40 points this season.

Virginia’s 2014-15 OVERALL Rankings Offense | Defense

Virginia’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #3
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-84.2 ranks 1st
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-112.4 ranks 28th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Virginia winning the game 56-53 based on his indexes.

Our Cardinals need a big win after splitting their last eight games. They are averaging 69.9 points on 43% shooting from the field, and 30.7% from the three. Terry Rozier is averaging 17.2 points and 2.8 assists; Montrezl Harrell is averaging 15.6 points and 9.3 rebounds. Wayne Blackshear is the third double-digit scorer averaging 10.7 points and 4.6 rebounds. Chinanu Onuaku has been gradually improving all season and is grabbing five rebounds a game. Despite an encouraging effort in the FSU game the Louisville bench was held scoreless against Notre Dame. The 5 spot combined for 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 turnovers and 11 fouls vs. Notre Dame.

Mango, Shaqquan, Anas, Jaylen and Anton have to become a bigger part of the Louisville team over the next couple of weeks. It’s imperative to this team’s tournament success in my opinion. We may see these guys play more due to the recent news that Coach Pitino plans on changing his system especially on the defensive end. The main reason some of the younger guys haven’t seen the floor was due to their defensive execution. One would think a simplified defense would mean more playing time. Currently the Louisville defense is allowing 59.3 points a game, 38.5% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from the three. They have given up 59 or less points in six of their last 10 games.

It’s always a good thing when you can get a game like this to end a regular season. A quality opponent can get a team prepared for the tough weeks ahead as tournament play starts. This Virginia team is a very good opponent to close the season with and they do a lot of things well. They will challenge our Cardinals in every facet of the game on Saturday and we’ll see if the Cards can start trending upward.

I do think our guys answer the call on Senior Day as they will be riding a wave of emotions from the festivities. I also think these guys will respond to the “system change” that Coach Pitino has made. I think they will play a little looser and will play harder not having to worry about making mistakes on the defensive end of the floor. I’m looking forward to being right in the middle of it all. Going to be a great day! Go Cards!

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 60 Virginia 53