Our #8 ranked Louisville Cardinals(25-5, 13-4 Big East) have won 6 straight since that dreadful five overtime loss on February 9th to Notre Dame(23-7, 11-6 Big East). Now here we are a month later and the #24 ranked Fighting Irish are coming to the KFC Yum Center for the return game. This will be the last game of the regular season and there will be a lot at stake. So much that Coach Pitino said today in his pre-game press conference that “it is the most important home game we’ve ever played” at the Yum Center. Of course there is the revenge factor of this game but that is really overshadowed by the post season implications. The Cards are currently in a three way tie with Georgetown and Marquette for the Big East regular season title and a win on Saturday would assure them at least a share of it. A win could also be the difference in being the 1 or 2 seed in the Big East tournament. The Cards also have a legitimate shot at getting a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and a big win over a top 50 RPI team in front of a national audience could go a long way in reaching that top line. If that’s not enough to get you fired up add in the Senior Day ceremonies where Mike Marra, Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng will play their final home game in the Cardinal uniform. So yes Cardinal fans this game is as big as it gets in the regular season. Louisville leads the all-time series with Notre Dame 17 to 12 and the Irish lead 5 to 4 in the Big East regular season series. These teams have met twice in the Big East tournament and the Cards have won both of those contest.

Notre Dame might be a little less talented than some Big East teams, but its experienced roster and efficient offense is enough to win big games and be very competitive. Notre Dame returns all five starters for one of the few times in Mike Brey’s 12-year tenure and one of the most talented recruiting classes. Notre Dame’s current senior class needs only three victories to become the program’s all-time winningest class. There is depth, there is talent, there is plenty of drive and plenty of determination. When it comes to taking care of the ball and sharing the ball there isn’t many teams that do it better than this Irish squad. They are currently ranked 1st in the Big East in assist averaging 16.1 per game. And they are ranked 3rd nationally in assist averaging 17.6 per game. The Irish rank 1st in the Big East and 1st nationally in assist/turnover ratio at 1.4 and 1.58. They are also a very good defensive rebounding team ranked 5th in the Big East averaging 23.8 per game. Brey always has a group of guys that can shoot the ball really well and this team can score from anywhere on the court. They are 3rd in the Big East shooting 44.3% from the field and 3rd shooting 36.1% from the three-point line.
Notre Dame ranks nationally 87th averaging 71.2 points per game, 96th grabbing 36.5 rebounds per game and 24th shooting 47.3% from the field per game. They have a current RPI of 44 and are in 4th place in the Big East. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 114.8 ranked 13th and their adj efficiency on defense at 95.6 ranked 88th. He has them ranked 32 overall.

Coach Mike Brey: “We’ve gone from survival mode to thriving,” “Now the next step is to thrive deeper in New York City and in the NCAA tournament. We’ve been right there knocking on the door, Now it’s time to join the party.”

The Fighting Irish Players:

Jack Cooley SR (13.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-9 F is considered the doppelganger of former Irish All-American Luke Harangody. He has became a low-post force this season. In Big East play, he is 2nd in rebounding at 10.2 per game and offensive rebounds per game at 3.6. He is 3rd in field-goal percentage shooting 55.3%. He has scored in double-figures in 27 of the 30 games this season. He is averaging 1 blocked shot per game this season. He shoots 50% from the 3 point line and 68.5% from the free-throw line averaging 30 minutes of play.

Tom Knight SR (4.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-10 F The left-hander can do a handful of tasks really well rebound, defend and screen. He has become a more consist player this season as well. He shoots 52.7% from the field and 63.6% from the free-throw line averaging 16.7 minutes per game.

Eric Atkins JR (11.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.0 apg) 6-2 G He is one of the top guards in the league and is 4th in the Big East in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.1. He’s 7th in the Big East with a 5.1 assist-per-game average this season. He has four double-doubles this season and has dished out 10 or more assists in a game five times this season. He is shooting 45.5% from the field, 43.1% from the three point line and 64.1% from the free-throw line averaging 38.4 minutes per game.

Jerian Grant JR (13.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.6 apg) 6-5 G is a really confident player that will hit big shots in key moments, and knows how to get the ball to his teammates in scoring position. He has scored in double-figures in 25 Big East games this season, including a current stretch of four straight double-digit efforts. He is averaging 13.5 points per game in league play and his 5.6 assist-per-game average in Big East contests is fourth in the conference. He is shooting 42.7% from the field, 36.4% from the three point line and 72.6% from the free-throw line averaging 36.4 minutes per game.

Pat Connaughton SOPH (8.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.4 blkpg) 6-5 G/F is a player with a lot of versatility. He’ll score, pass, guard, take a charge and rebound. He also understands what it’s like to be under the brightest of lights. He has has dished out 69 assists this season and has an assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.06. He is shooting 42% from the field, 32.5% from the three point line and 74.4% from the free-throw line averaging 31.8 minutes a game.

-Bench

Garrick Sherman JR (6.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.3 apg) 6-10 C is a transfer from Michigan State that will provide back up to Cooley. He had his breakout game last time against Louisville when he had 17 points on 7 of 10 shooting. This guy is a pretty good weapon for Brey to bring off the Bench for some inside scoring. He is shooting 53.9% from the field and 65.9% from the free-throw line averaging 14.7 minutes per game.

Zach Auguste FR (4.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-10 F is a freshman that has come in and played the part for Notre Dame like Harrell has played for Louisville. He gives them length and a Big East body. He comes off the bench and gives them solid minutes. He is shooting 54.8% from the field and 64% from the free-throw line averaging 10.4 minutes per game.

Cameron Biedscheid FR (6.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1.0 apg) 6-7 F scored on a layup with 1:19 left to seal the 104-101 win the last time these teams played but he won’t be available on Saturday for the Irish. He got ejected in the last game after getting into a fight and will have to serve a one game suspension.

Austin Burgett FR (0.4 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.0 apg) 6-9 F will probably see more minutes in the game this Saturday due to the suspension of Biedscheid. He is a first year player with a real feel for the game, handles the ball extremely well for a player with his size and plays like a point forward. He is a strong perimeter shooter and a very skilled/athletic player with a great understanding of the game. He has good rebounding skills to go along with strong shooting abilities.

The Cards thrive on turnovers and forcing the other team to play faster than they typically do. It is not easy to do that to this Irish team. The Irish aren’t a great defensive team and they aren’t great on the offensive glass. I do think we can have the advantage and expose these areas. The Cards have better players at every position on the court. We need to take care of the ball, take good shots, and take advantage of our big guys in the paint. I do think Russ and Peyton will also play a big role if we are to get this win. They must play under control and stay on the floor. Look for Wayne Blackshear to have a big game in this one and his outside shooting will be key. I also think Hancock’s basketball intelligence will be more of an asset in this game than it has all season. I do think this Notre Dame team will struggle to make up for Biedscheids absence and that will make them more vulnerable. Their bench was already short to begin with.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Notre Dame 65