The word rival is thrown around very loosely in college sports today but on Monday our Louisville Cardinals(24-5, 12-4 Big East) will play a legitimate long time rival when they host the Cincinnati Bearcats(20-9, 8-8 Big East) for the very first time at the KFC Yum center on Monday night. Coach Pitino will be going for his 300th win and the Cards will be looking for their sixth win in a row. Louisville leads the all-time series with UC 54 to 43 and the series is tied in Big East play 4 to 4. The last time these teams met was in the 2012 Big East championship game where the Cards came out victorious in a 50-44 battle.

Mick Cronin has really done a solid job at Cincinnati and they had a terrific run last year in March when they went on a 9-3 run, advanced to the Big East title game and the NCAA Sweet 16. They started out of the gate fast this year winning their first 12 games but have lost six out of ten down the stretch. The Bearcats are about pressuring opponents, turning them over and creating opportunities in the open court or spreading the floor in the half-court, using penetration and 3-point shooting. The problems for this team are a result of shooting and scoring woes, especially from its big guys. And that inability to score efficiently puts a tremendous amount of pressure on their defense to get stop after stop. They are averaging 0.98 points per possession. Their season average is 1.03. In Big East play, Cincinnati is shooting 37.1% from the field ranked 14th and 28.7% from 3-point range ranked 13th. The Bearcats’ defense is outstanding, but it has to be to make up for the team’s inability to score. Their field goal defense is ranked 9th in the Big East holding opponents to 41.6% per game, and their 3 point field goal defense is ranked 3rd holding their opponents to 29.2% per game on average. This team is very athletic and they really go after it on the boards. They are in the top five of every rebounding category in the Big East and are #1 in defensive rebounding.
The Bearcats rank nationally 149th with 68.4 points per game, 6th with 40.6 rebounds per game, 185th with 12.6 assist per game and 298th shooting 40.4% per game average. They are currently in 9th place in the Big East and have an RPI of 50. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 104.6 ranked 111 and their adj efficiency on defense at 87.5 ranked 12th. He has them ranked 34th overall.

Coach Mick Cronin: “Defense is engrained in our DNA,” “For us, we’re trying to create turnovers and extend our defense more consistently.”
“We’re such a defensive-minded team. For us, playing fast means taking the ball off of opponents with more steals, turnovers, deflections and bad passes. When we went through the process of building a program up and learning how to win, defense was the constant.”

The Bearcat Players:

Titus Rubles JR (6.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg) 6-7 F Cincy is his fourth stop in as many seasons. He is tough, athletic and can defend a variety of positions. He hasn’t been good at all from the field, which hurts his overall numbers. The big key for Rubles has been getting to the line. He shoots 33.1% from the field, 10.3% from the 3 point line and 65.6% from the free-throw line.

Cheikh Mbodj SR (5.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.2 apg) 6-10 C has proven this season that he can clear the boards and block a bunch of shots. He ranks 3rd in the Big East in blocked shots averaging 2.4 per game. He’s not really an offensive threat and gets most of his points off of offensive rebound put backs. He shoots 46.8% from the field and 65.7% from the free-throw line.

Cashmere Wright SR (12.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) 6-0 G He hasn’t been the same player since he sprained his right knee at DePaul on Jan. 15 and his shooting percentages have gone south. He has played through the pain and is one of two primary scoring threats for this team. And he is also a very good defensive player. He is the all-time steals leader for UC. He is shooting 38.5% from the field, 34.3% from the 3 point line and 81.9% from the free-throw line which ranks 4th in the Big East.

Sean Kilpatrick JR (17.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.9 apg) 6-4 G has emerged as one of the Big East’s top scoring guards and is the leader of this Bearcat squad. He has become very consistent player and can score from long range or drive to the basket. He along with Wright is the second primary scoring threat for this team. He ranks 6th in the Big East in scoring, and 3rd in 3 point shots made at 2.6 per game. He shoots 40.9% from the field, 32.5% from the 3 point line and 73.1% from the free-throw line.

JaQuon Parker SR (11.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg) 6-3 G is a driven wing who can do just about anything necessary in a winning cause. Parker rebounds extremely well for his size, can shoot from the outside and according to Cronin doesn’t care what is asked of him; he’ll do it. He ranks 15th in the Big East in offensive rebounds with 1.9 per game. He shoots 41.4% from the field, 40.5% from the 3 point line and 52.3% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Ge’Lawn Guyn SOPH (2.5 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-2 G is not really a big threat scoring wise and is usually called on to hound the opposing teams point guard. He is a very solid on the ball defender. He shoots 34.3% from the field, 25.7% from the 3 point line and 83.3% from the free-throw line.

Jermaine Sanders SOPH (3.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-5 F has been described as a player with a lot of potential. He can play inside or outside, mainly outside. He is a lefty and has a pretty good jump shot. He does struggle a bit from the charity stripe and is not a very good rebounder. He shoots 40.2% from the field, 30% from the 3 point line and 53.3% from the free-throw line.

Shaquille Thomas FR (2.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-7 F can beat his man off the dribble and score at the basket. He’s not all that fundamentally sound, but he’s a high flier who plays above the rim and can be an effective passer. He has good versatility. He is also a good defensive player. He shoots 39.2% from the field, 37.5% from the 3 point line and 57.1% from the free-throw line.

David Nyarsuk JR (2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.2 apg) 7-1 C is the tallest player to ever play for the Bearcats. He gives them size and scoring inside. He does struggle to stay on the floor do to his foul trouble. He shoots 59.4% from the field and 53.3% from the free-throw line.

The Bearcats are a very similar team to the Cards the way they play on the defensive end of the floor. This is to be expected as Cronin is a Rick Pitino disciple. But they do struggle on the offensive end of the floor. I look for the Cards to focus their defense keying on Wright and Kilpatrick because the Bearcats have no other serious scoring threats. Their passing is also not very good and their bigs can’t finish around the rim so there’s no need to help off the guards. They are also very poor shooters as a team from the free-throw line.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Cincinnati 59