Our #10 ranked Louisville Cardinals (23-5, 11-4 Big East) have won seven of their last eight games and four in a row as they head into the final Big East battle with #12 ranked Syracuse (22-6, 10-5 Big East) on Saturday afternoon. This will be the last time these teams play each other as Big East members. Louisville leads the all-time series 13 to 7 and 6 to 4 in the Big East. Syracuse has won three in a row over the Cards including the 70-68 victory on January 19th at the KFC Yum center.

Syracuse is in the midst of its winningest era ever. The Orange’s recruiting is at an all-time high, with four McDonald’s All-Americans committing in the last three years. And Coach Jim Boeheim is making his climb to one of the most winning coaches in college basketball at 912 wins. As always, Boeheim has plenty of guys between 6-8 and 6-10 to hold down the back line of the zone, while on the top he has 6-4 Triche and the 6-6 Carter-Williams. And with this much size and agility, the 2-3 is once again a real pain for opposing teams. That zone has them ranked 3rd in the Big East in field goal percentage defense holding teams to 39.2%, and 9th in 3 point percentage defense holding teams to 31.2%. They are also ranked 3rd in the Big East in blocked shots with 5.5 a game and 2nd in steals behind our Cards with 8.1 per game. Since beating the #1 Cards on January 19th Cuse has struggled and went 5-5 in their last 10 games. And although their defense has stayed consistent their offense has struggled. Even with James Southerland returning to the line-up it hasn’t helped as Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, who looked like arguably the best back court in the country back in January, have struggled mightily. Triche has averaged just 12.6 points while shooting 34.0% from the floor and 15.9% from three over the last eight games. Michael Carter-Williams hasn’t been much better during that stretch and he’s accounted for 17 assists and 19 turnovers. Despite his struggles Cuse still ranks 2nd in the Big East in assist/turnover ratio at +3.47. They have dropped to 7th in the Big East in field goal percentage to 42.6% per game and 9th in 3 point percentage at 31.2% per game.
The Orange rank nationally 39th with 74 points per game, 16th with 39.5 rebounds per game, 41st with 15.1 assist per game and 96th shooting 44.7% per game. They are currently in 4th place in the Big East with a 12 RPI. Kenpom has their adj efficiency on offense at 114.4 ranked 14th and their adj efficiency on defense at 87.5 ranked 13th. He has them ranked 9th overall.

In-conference offense: 3pt-31.2%, 2pt-42.6%, FT-74.9%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.2pg, Blocks-5.5pg, Steals-8.1pg

Coach Jim Boeheim: “We are a low turnover team and that will be tested against Louisville, because they pressure and try to force turnovers. That will be a big part of the game. We attack pressure well. We think we can attack the pressure. It will be a challenge. I’m more concerned with their shot blocking ability. They’re very very good around the basket.”

The Orange Players:

-Projected Starters

C.J. Fair JR (14.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.8 apg) 6-8 F is a strong and physical player who is a good rebounder and is ranked 5th in the Big East with 7.7 per game. He is a dependable source of effective and low-foul coverage on the back line of the 2-3 zone. He is shooting 49.2% from the field, 42.1% from the 3 point line and 82.1% from the free-throw line.

Rakeem Christmas SOPH (5.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.3 apg) 6-9 F is a good rebounder, shot blocker and defender. He is ranked 5th in the Big East in blocked shots with 1.7 per game. He is not as effective on the offensive end of the floor. He is also a player prone to foul trouble. He is shooting 55.2% from the field, and 62.9% from the free-throw line.

Jerami Grant FR (4.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-8 F has the look of the prototypical Syracuse forward. He’s long and lean. He can drive to the basket and has a developing jump shot. He will have to overcome the pressure of playing against a more physical and mature Cards front-court. He shoots 47.6% from the field, 40% from the 3 point line and 54.2% from the free-throw line.

Michael Carter-Williams SOPH (12.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 7.9 apg) 6-6 G is the player who replaced Scoop Jardine in the Cuse starting line-up. He is a good ball handler with great court vision and is 3rd in the Big East in assist with 6 per game. 4th in assist/turnover ratio at 2.2. He has great size and length for the top of that 2-3 zone. Very effective defender and is the steals leader in the Big East with 2.7 per game. He has been struggling of late but is still a very capable and great athlete. He is shooting 38.1% from the field, 28.6% from the 3 point line and 74.4% from the free-throw line.

Brandon Triche SR (14.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.7 apg) 6-4 G was clutch in the win over the Cards back in January. If he gets hot he can be a very effective scorer. He is a veteran guard and his team will need him to step up big if they are to beat our Cards again on Saturday. He shoots 42.5% from the field, 29.1% from the 3 point line and 74.3% from the free-throw line.

-Bench

Trevor Cooney FR (4.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-4 G will back up Triche at the off guard spot, allowing the senior guard to rest or move to the point to spell Carter-Williams. He’s got size, strength and athleticism. Gives the Orange a 3 point threat when he’s in the game and can out the ball on the floor and make plays. He shoots 32.2% from the field, 27.9% from the 3 point line and 81.1% from the free-throw line.

Baye Keita JR (3.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.1 apg) 6-10 C provides energy, defense and rebounding off the bench. He is another big guy on this team who is not as effective on offense and is also a liability at the free throw line. He shoots 62.3% from the field and 50% from the free-throw line.

James Southerland SR (13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.2 apg) 6-8 F He rebounds and defends better than he did as an underclassman, but he still remains something of a one-dimensional offensive player. He’s yet to add a reliable drive to the basket to his outside shooting ability. He missed the last game against Louisville with some eligibility issues. He is a very experienced player and has been know for some clutch shots in big games. He has crazy range and will shoot the ball from the parking lot. He is shooting 47.9% from the field, 39% from the free throw line, and 69.7% from the free-throw line.

The Orange get extra possessions by getting offensive rebounds (five players have 25 or more total offensive rebounds) and steals, but they give up too many second shots and have been turning the ball over too much as of late. Triche and Carter-Williams have not played well over the past month, and it’s why Syracuse is struggling. The Cards will have to capitalize on the weakness of the Orange’s offensive mistakes and capitalize on their turnovers. And we will need our more experienced front-court to get on the offensive glass and defend the lane.

It’s always fun to watch Pitino and Boeheim go at it. And it will be interesting to see how Coach P decides to attack the zone defense. We have beat Syracuse with our transition game in the past and we have beaten them in the half court. We have a team very capable of either way this year and should have beaten them the last time we played. Our depth will once again play a role in the outcome. Ware, Hancock and Harrell will have to make the most of their minutes when they are in the game. If Russ and Peyton play the games they are capable of and stay out of foul trouble it could be a big factor as I believe the winner of the back-court battle could be the winner of this game.

This one is gonna be another classic in this great rivalry and it will be the last time these teams meet as Big East members. Syracuse will be moving into the ACC after this season and Louisville will follow in 2014. I think our depth and back-court will be the difference in this one and our Cards avenge the earlier loss to get a hard fought win. Not gonna be easy and will be a low scoring game as these are two great defenses.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 65 Syracuse 60