There are just two spots left in the Final Four in Indy next weekend. Our Cardinals have defied all odds and will be playing for one of those spots. They will be playing against a team that has traveled a similar path and defied their own odds. The Cards and Michigan State will play for the ninth time in their history. The Cards lead the series 5-3. Ironically the last time these teams played back in 2012 the narrative was similar. The Cardinals were on an improbable run in the NCAA and beat 1 seed Michigan State 57-44 in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite Eight and ultimately the Final Four.

This group isn’t as good as that 2012 Michigan State team but even though the names have change, their recipe for success remains the same. They have a great coach, a balanced scoring attack, and relentless team rebounding and intense man-to-man defense. They are also really good at defending the perimeter.

The Spartans have won seven of their last eight games. On the season they are averaging 71.2 points on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% from the three. Izzo has a seasoned rotation led by two seniors Branden Dawson (11.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG), and Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.4 APG). They are followed by three solid juniors in Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Bryn Forbes (9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Matt Costello (7.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG). Dawson is a beast and just may be the best player on the team. Forbes shooting 42.8%, Valentine shooting 41.6% and Trice shooting 37.4% are all very big threats from deep, and all have been hot during their tournament run. The Spartans have four players averaging at least 8.6 points.

As I mentioned above Izzo’s teams play a sticky man-to-man defense that has given up 63 or fewer points in four of its last five games. They are allowing teams to shoot 39.4% from the field and 31.5% from the three-point line. They will crash the defensive boards hard and are ranked in the top 20 in the nation.

Michigan State’s NATIONAL RANKS

Michigan State’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #15
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-95.5 ranks 47th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.9 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Michigan State winning the game 65-64 based on his indexes.

There may not be a player left in the tournament that has had a bigger come up, or that has been bigger for his team than Terry Rozier. This kid had 17 points and 14 rebounds against NC State. His ability to take over on the offensive end and ability to rebound will be huge against the Spartans.

And you won’t find a player that works harder than Montrezl Harrell has during this tournament. He has played 114 minutes, scored 46 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. There’s not a player on the other side that will get after it like Montrezl will on Sunday afternoon.

What about that senior Wayne Blackshear who has now played in more NCAA games than any other player in Louisville’s history. His team has followed his lead and his determination and will to win has rubbed off. He is the guy that got his teammates to believe.

Or the local kid Quentin Snider who dreamed of playing for the hometown Cards as a kid and now has become a big reason they are in the Elite Eight. He hit clutch free-throws in his first NCAA game and played 37 minutes without a turnover in his first Sweet 16 game. He is a stone cold basketball player and doesn’t flinch under pressure. He is unreal.

Guys like Mango whose defense has been unreal, and Gill who comes off the bench to take over the game…

Louisville 70 Michigan State 63