The Beak Basketball Breakdown: The Bearcats Part 2

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You can bet that when Louisville and Cincinnati play each other on the field, basketball court or wherever that it’s going to be a battle. If you add to that natural competition two highly ranked teams, playing for a conference title then you have something really special. This is the Cardinals oldest rival and the game on Saturday will be the 99th meeting in the UofL and UC series. It dates back to Metro Conference, Missouri Valley , Conference USA, Big East and now AAC. Louisville leads this series with our old foes from the north 55 to 43, but lost a heart breaker to the Bearcats back on January 30th 66-69. Cincinnati improved to 24-3 overall and 13-1 in the AAC on Wednesday with a win over UCF, and are ranked 7th by AP and 9th in the USA Today poll. Our Cardinals have won 9 out of the last 10 and five straight heading into the game on Saturday at 12PM on CBS.

Coach Mick Cronin has one of his most physical and athletic teams coming into the game on Saturday. Cincinnati is among the national leaders in five key defensive statistics including scoring defense (57.7, fifth nationally), turnover margin (+3.7, 13th), scoring margin (11.7, 25th), field goal percentage defense (38.7, 27th) and blocked shots (5.7, 25th). It will be an experienced and established UC team lead by Sean Kilpatrick (20.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.6 apg), and a great supporting cast of characters including Titus Rubles (7.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.1 apg), Shaquille Thomas (7.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 apg), Jermaine Sanders (5.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Troy Caupain (5.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.4 apg), and Justin Jackson (11.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.7 apg). These guys can all protect the rim and rebound.

Kilpatrick is their do it all guy and their go to. He was named to the Naismith Trophy Midseason Top 30 list, leads the American in scoring and three-pointers made (2.8 per game).
Titus Rubles is ranked eighth in the American in rebounding since the start of league action. He has pulled down at least six rebounds in 10 of UC’s last 14 contests.
Justin Jackson entered the week ranked eighth in the nation in total blocks (81). He is listed among the league’s Top 10 in five categories: blocks (first at 3.1), offensive rebounds (second at 3.2), field-goal shooting (fifth at 57.0 percent), rebounds (t-fourth at 7.0) and steals (seventh at 1.7). He’s the key to a Cincinnati defense only allowing opponents to 57.4 points a game.

UC comes into Saturdays game averaging 69.7 points-per-game, while shooting 43.3% from the floor and 34.4% from 3-point range. The Bearcats are converting 71.5% of their attempts from the free-throw line. Defensively, UC is allowing 57.4 points-per-game as the opposition is shooting 39.3% from the floor. The Bearcats are out-rebounding their opponents 973-851 with a rebounding margin of +4.5 averaging 36 boards-per-contest.

:UC
2013-14 OVERALL RANKINGS
-POINTS PER GAME 69.7, 226th OVERALL -REBOUNDS PER GAME 36, 127th OVERALL -ASSISTS PER GAME 13, 154th OVERALL -FIELD GOAL PCT
.433, 238th OVERALL
Compared to
:UofL
2013-14 OVERALL RANKINGS
-POINTS PER GAME 83, 11th OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME 38, 47th OVERALL -ASSISTS PER GAME 15.5, 30th OVERALL -FIELD GOAL PCT .480, 21st OVERALL

UC
Kenpom Ranks
Overall – #21
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
– 91 ranks 5th
Offensive Adjustment Efficiency
– 108.6 ranks 102nd
Compared to
UofL
Kenpom Ranks
Overall – #3
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
– 92 ranks 8th
Offensive Adjustment Efficiency
– 116.7 ranks 11th

UC is off to their best start in coach Cronin’s eight-year tenure. He is a guy that embodies the leadership, courage and determination of all of his mentors. And he has passed that down to his team. They are relentless on the defensive end of the floor and they dig in to grind on teams for the full 40. This Cardinals team will also be much better the second time around. In the last game there were a lot of mistakes, defensive breakdowns coming off screens, closing out, and defensive rebounding. The Cards still almost managed to get the win regardless.

UC will see a more disciplined defensive team Saturday, a better rebounding team and wiser team. Players like Montrezl and Rozier are emerging into difference makers. Mango and Stephan have produced 23 rebounds and 27 points in that 5 spot over the last two games. Russ has made his mind up to just win games instead of trying to please everyone and Chris Jones has settled into his role on the team. Factor in Luke Hancock back to being “Luke” and I think it spells success on Saturday for the Cards.

I’m not homer enough to think our guys are gonna walk into UC’s gym and get an easy win. It’s going to be a fight and I expect a very close game throughout. But this time when our guys need that last rebound, that last play to close out the game I think they’ll get it done. Folks I’m really looking forward to this one. It will be the game of the regular season. Let’s hope our guys return to Louisville Saturday with a little more facial hair and ranked 1st in the AAC. No Shave Till Dallas.. Go Cards!….