Unfortunately I remember it like it was yesterday sitting in my living room in a state of shock after the 4 seed Cardinals had just lost to in-state 13 seed Morehead State in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. They had the Rodmanesque future pro in Kenneth Faried who scored 12 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. It wasn’t one of the better sports moments for Louisville fans.

On Friday I had flashbacks of that unpleasant moment when the 4 seed Cardinals were in a dog fight with 13 seed UC Irvine in their first round game in the NCAA Tourney. The Anteaters had the Manute Boesque future pro in Mamadou NDiaye who bullied the Cardinals around in the post and scored 12 points.

Friday things could have been very reminiscent of that game back in 2011, but instead the Cardinals pulled this one out thanks to the Game day heroics of freshman Quentin Snider and senior Wayne Blackshear and now they move on to the third round on Sunday to face the University of Northern Iowa.

The University of Northern Iowa is one of those teams that any college basketball fan loves to cheer for unless they are playing against your school. I cheered for them on their run in 2010 when they upset Kansas. And this team is very reminiscent of that group. They have a group of assassins when it comes to the three point shot and they bring four guys off their bench that shoot 40% from deep. They aren’t going to come at you with one or two guys. They come at you with 10. They play true team ball.

They are averaging 66 points a game shooting 48.2% from the field and 40% from the three. They are led by their do everything star Seth Tuttle who averages 15.3 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. The Wooden Award finalist leads the Panthers in points, rebounds, assists and blocks. The rest of their starting line-ups are as follows. Marvin Singleton (5.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Jeremy Morgan (5.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG), Matt Bohannon (5.6 PPG, 1.5 RPG), and Deon Mitchell (7.3 PPG, 2.4 APG). They also have three other players averaging between 5.0 and 7.8 PPG. This group is very deliberate and they’ll milk the shot clock on every possession waiting for a moment to take the best shot.

On the defensive end of the floor they aren’t going to wow you with their athleticism or their speed, but they will impress you with their attention to detail and fundamentals. They do a great job of keeping a body between the ball and the basket. They finished the season ranked 4th in the country in points allowed giving up only 54.3 points a game. Having that deep bench works more towards an advantage on this end of the floor and they keep fresh bodies coming at you in waves.

NATIONAL RANKS

Northern Iowa’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #9
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-93.3 ranks 19th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-114.6 ranks 13th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Northern Iowa winning the game 59-57 based on his indexes.

I wouldn’t necessarily call them an unlikely cast of big performers for Louisville but I think it was surprising to some that Quentin and Wayne stepped up on the offensive end and that Mango stepped up on the defensive end on Friday. It is going to take that and then some on Sunday night for the Cardinals to advance to the Sweet 16 for the 21st time (4th straight). To win a game like this it’s also going to take a big effort from guys like Montrezl and Terry. They can’t have a sub-par performance in this one. They will have an athletic advantage and they’ll need to utilize it on both ends of the floor. The bench guys will also need to produce some solid minutes to try and keep up with their depth advantage.

My keys to this game are for Louisville to dominate the boards and to utilize the press effectively. UNI doesn’t have many weaknesses but they are ranked 322nd out of 350 Division I teams in rebounding. When they have struggled this season they have gotten killed on the glass. Rebounding has been Louisville’s strength this season and has been the one constant. I also think the Cards will have to be effective in both their full and half court press. If they can get into the legs of their shooters it will hurt their accuracy.

This is going to be a very tough game, but the Cards hold one distinct advantage. Having a Hall of Fame coach who has seen it all is huge in these quick turnaround games of the tourney. He will have a blueprint to solve the UNI riddle. He will just need his team to follow that blueprint. The Cardinals are going to have to beat the Panthers because UNI is a team that isn’t going to beat themselves.

Louisville 60 UNI 51