In 1980 I was an 8yr old growing up in a small town in Kentucky. I didn’t start really paying attention to Cardinal Basketball until I was 12, but have read enough old articles and watched enough old footage that I can really appreciate how good that 1980 team was. Every time the program has won a national title it has been really special, but that very first one is what put the program on the map. That was a special team and a special group of players that included Louisville’s own Darrell Griffith who promised his city a championship and delivered. On Saturday that group will be honored when the Cardinals play Duke a team Louisville beat in 1986 for the program’s second title. Louisville will even break out the Dunking Bird uniforms for the occasion.

RICK PITINO TALKS BLUE DEVILS

The Cardinals and Blue Devils have played nine times on the hardwood. Duke leads the series 5-4, but Louisville has won the last four out of five including the last one in that inspirational elite eight game during the 2013 title run. This game will feature two of the biggest traditions in college basketball and two of the most influential coaches in the history of college basketball. Mike Krzyzewski in his 40th season has 997 wins, and Rick Pitino in his 30th season has 709 wins. Saturday will be the beginning of a new ACC rivalry that will be very good for years to come.

The Blue Devils will limp into the Yum Center on Saturday after losing their last two games, including falling 90-74 at home to Miami on Tuesday. Their offense really hasn’t been the issue as much as they just can’t seem to get stops on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed 10 made three-point field goals in each of the past two games. They are allowing opponents to shoot 42.8% from the floor, and 30.6% from the three. This is a team that relies heavily on a group of freshman and they haven’t fully bought into giving their best effort on defense.

This Duke team is loaded with talent and they have an NCAA-best and school-record nine McDonald’s All-America selections on the roster in 2014-15. Freshmen Tyus Jones (9.4ppg, 3.4rpg), Jahlil Okafor (18.9ppg, 9.4rpg) and Justise Winslow (11.9ppg, 4.9rpg) have started all 16 games for the Blue Devils. This trio combines to average 40.2 points, 17.6 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. A freshman has led the Blue Devils in scoring in 12 of 16 games. Okafor has led eight times, while Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow have each led Duke in scoring two times. This rookie trio has accounted for 10 of Duke’s 11 20-point games on the year (Okafor 7, Jones 2, and Winslow 1).

The upperclassmen leading the way on this team are Quinn Cook (14.8ppg, 2.9rpg), Amile Jefferson (8.3ppg, 7,7rpg), and Rasheed Sulaimon (8.1ppg, 1.9rpg). Cook and Sulaimon are great shooters and both of them can light it up behind the arc. Cook has made at least one three-point field goal in each of the past 26 games, and is shooting 41.4 percent from behind the arc. Sulaimon is shooting 44.4 percent (8-of-18) from three- point range in league play. While Jefferson is a beast on the backboards especially the offensive glass. He has 50 of the Blue Devils 201 offensive rebounds on the season ranked 7th in the ACC with 3.1 a game.

Duke’s offensive attack is one of the most efficient in the NCAA as the Blue Devils rank in the top 10 in points per game (6th), floor percentage (2nd), and points per possession (5th), efficiency (5th), two- point field goal percentage (6th), field goal percentage (6th) and true shooting percentage (10th). To say they will be the toughest challenge of the season for the Cardinals defense is a major understatement.

Duke’s 2014-15 Overall Rankings Offense | Defense

Duke’s 2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #11
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-95.0 ranks 66th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-116.9 ranks 7th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville winning the game 74-69 based on his indexes.

Chris Jones has averaged 17.5 points, 7.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals and shot 49 percent from the field in the last four games. He handed out a career-high 11 assists with just two turnovers in the last game. Terry Rozier is leading the Cards in scoring with 17.4 points a game and has scored over 20 points in his last four. Montrezl Harrell has been quiet as of late but he is just 12 points short of becoming the 66th career 1,000-point scorer at Louisville. His six double- doubles this season are also tied for the ACC lead. Wayne Blackshear has also maintained a steady pace averaging 12 points and 4.6 rebounds in his last three games. These guys are Louisville’s bread and butter and they’ll need to keep trending upward to beat the Dukies on Saturday.

Louisville must also get some help from the bench. The Cards got 18 points from the bench in the last game as Snider, Aaron, and Gill had some productive minutes. The guys at the 5 spot are also going to be important in this one and moving forward. Mango’s numbers are slowly improving averaging 4.3 points and 7 rebounds in the last three games. Onuaku and Anas still need to improve on their numbers.

Louisville ranks among the nation’s top 15 in field goal percentage defense holding opponents to 36.5%, which ranks 11th nationally. They have held 12 of their last 17 opponents under 40 percent shooting from the field, and are 42nd nationally in three-point field goal percentage defense holding teams to 29.5%. Defense is what our Cardinals are about and if they win the game on Saturday it will be because of another great effort on that end of the court. Louisville has held a rebounding advantage in 10 of its 17 games, but the Cardinals have been beaten on the boards in three of the last four. The Cards are 17th nationally in offensive rebounds per game. I think they’ll have to win this battle also or at least keep it close.

This is one of the biggest games on the schedule. The Yum center is going to be rocking and emotions will be running high. I think our guys will feed off of that energy along with the buzz from the ceremony honoring that 1980 group. They’ll channel some of that greatness from those throwback uniforms and will have one of their best games of the season. It will be three losses in a row for the Dukies…

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Duke 63