The Louisville football program has had an up and down season. The Cardinals are 5-3 this season finishing 3rd in the ACC Coastal Division, and are 6-5 overall coming off a disappointing loss to Pitt. Now it’s time for the season finale and the annual battle with in-state rival Kentucky. It will be a chance to end the regular season on a positive note. The bitter banter has had a full season to stew between UK and Louisville fans. The wait for this game has made it hotter than ever. We have had twitter wars, Facebook wars, but now it’s time for the gridiron version of “The Battle of the Bluegrass” to take center stage. Both programs will be on display for the SEC Network viewing audience at 12:00pm Saturday. This is the second season that this game will take its place at the table of rivalry weekend in college football. This game has been played 27 times over the years with UK leading the series 14-13, while Louisville has been the better team and program in the modern series leading 13-8 and winning the last four meetings. Louisville also won 4 straight in this series between the 03 and 07 seasons but have never won five straight.

Kentucky started off the season like they have for the last couple of years of the Stoops Era. They started the season winning 4 of their first five before going on a five game losing streak. They snapped that streak last week with a 58-10 win over Charlotte. The Kentucky offense is averaging 24.7 points and 379.4 yards per game with 20 turnovers. They have rushed for 1,860 yards this season with 20 touchdowns, and have passed for 2,313 yards with 10 touchdowns. Their rushing attack is ranked 89th in the country and they average 185 yards a game. Their passing attack is ranked 80th in the country and they average 210 yards a game. They are ranked 83rd in total offense. The Kentucky defense is allowing 26.5 points and 385.5 yards per game with eight interceptions, nine fumble recoveries, and 17 sacks. They are ranked 89th in the country in rushing defense allowing 185 yards per game, and ranked 35th in the country is passing yards allowed with 200 per game. They are ranked 57th in total defense.

The Wildcats started Drew Barker last week at QB and while the young guy shows promise I just don’t see him being the effective choice against Louisville. Last week Barker pretty much was able to hand the ball off to his running backs and throw easy routes. He hasn’t had enough time behind center to face the speed, and athleticism that he will see with the Louisville defense. So my guess is that we will see Patrick Towles for most of the game on Saturday. I think this guy is their best choice for this game. He has thrown for 2077 yards this season completing 60% of his passes and has 9 touchdowns. He is a quarterback that likes to play from the pocket but does a pretty good job of avoiding the rush. He has ran for 5 touchdowns this season. This guy is a gamer and he has been around long enough to know what this rivalry means. He had a helluva game against Louisville last year and he is the guy that gives them the best chance to win on Saturday.

Besides Towles coming in and having the game of his life the thing that concerns me the most on Saturday is the Kentucky running game. UK running backs Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp have each reached the 1,000-yard mark in career rushing this season. Williams has 818 yards with 5 touchdowns and Kemp has 541 yards with 6 touchdowns this season. I think the UK losing streak is a direct result of Williams getting hurt as they are a different team when he is healthy and in the backfield. This guy is a powerful runner and can cut on a dime and he is also the kind of player that can make plays develop for himself. He needs just nine yards on Saturday to equal that of Randall Cobb’s career at Kentucky and is just a sophomore. Kemp who has 1,346 yards rushing in his career and is a very good back in his own right. He is a very solid compliment to Williams and is a great north south runner. We seen the way Tyler Boyd and Qadree Ollison sliced through the Louisville defense last weekend and I think these two backs for Kentucky are just as good or better. The Louisville defensive front better come ready to play. These guys have a solid group blocking for them on the UK offensive line led by senior left tackle Jordan Swindle and junior center Jon Toth. A key element of the Kentucky’s running game is the dedication of the UK receivers in blocking. Wide receivers coach Tommy Mainord has developed a reputation as coaching units that emphasize run blocking.

Speaking of the Wildcats’ receiving corps they are led by Garrett Johnson and Dorian Baker. Johnson has 653 yards with 2 touchdowns and Baker has 514 yards with 3 touchdowns. Both of these guys have great size and speed and both can hurt you on the short routes or the big play. They also have a great complimentary duo of Jeff Badet 430 yards with 2 touchdowns and Blake Bone who has 210 yards with 1 touchdown. These guys are speedy and really effective in the east/west passing attack. Badet has 4 big plays this season over 40 yards. TE C.J. Conrad has also been effective for them in the passing attack and has 149 yards with a touchdown. The size and athleticism of Baker and Johnson could really pose a challenge to the Louisville corners and safeties. This week will be another big challenge for them.

The UK defense will be a big key if they are to pull the upset over the Cardinals on Saturday. This group at times has looked very good but then come out on the next series and look lost. Their defense is led up front by linebacker Josh Forrest who leads UK In tackles with 85 and Cory Johnson who has 65 tackles on the season. Johnson is a very gifted and athletic D lineman who proved it when he pulled off one of the best acrobatic interceptions last week I’ve seen all season. I think the Louisville defense will scheme to get a couple of bodies on this guy because Matt Elam and the other guys up front just aren’t getting it done for their team this season. Elam is Melvin Lewis’s replacement and this defensive unit hasn’t been the same without Lewis. Leading this unit in the defensive backfield are safeties Marcus McWilson who has 66 tackles, A.J. Stamps with 58 tackles and freshman corner Chris Westry who has 2 interceptions with 7 pass deflections. All of these guys are very athletic and rangy.

Going up against this inconsistent Kentucky defense is a Louisville offensive unit who has gradually improved over the season despite a carousel of QBs and poor offensive line production. After averaging just 24.3 points per game in the first eight contests of the season, the Cardinals have returned to the Petrino glory days when his teams lit up the scoreboard, and the Cardinals are averaging 37.6 points in the last three games. A reason for this offensive surge has been the ability of Kyle Bolin to come in and run the offense effectively. While the play of James Quick and emergence of Jamari Staples has also helped. With that being said I really don’t feel like Bolin gives the Cardinals the best chance at a victory on Saturday. We are going to need Lamar Jackson to come in with his ability to make plays with both his legs and his arm. UK has also had fits with mobile QB’s all season. Our offensive line has been horrible giving up more sacks than any group in the country this season and I just feel like Bolin would be rushed too much to be effective. Can’t negate the fact that it is expected to be a downpour for most of the game really effecting any passing. I think Lamar gets the nod but won’t be surprised to see the carousel again on Saturday.

I also hope that Staples is healthy and ready to go again this weekend because we will need him. Tight ends Cole Hikutini, Micky Crum, and Keith Towbridge have also made a big impact on this offense with 539 yards and seven touchdowns between them. I think they could also have a big impact on this game due to the lackluster play of UK’s DB’s. After registering back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances for the second time in his career Brandon Radcliff disappeared again last week and the Cardinals running game had -1 yard. I don’t think the Cardinals can win this game with another performance like this.

I really do think this game may just come down to whatever defensive group comes out and wants it more. The Cardinals are ranked 17th in total defense, allowing 24.36 points, 326.4 yards per game with 15 interceptions, seven fumble recoveries, and 29 sacks. It looked like they were on their way to dominating performances for the rest of the season. But then came out last week against Pitt and just completely laid down. It was very shocking to me to see these guys play so uninspired. I think this weekend it all starts with some solid leadership from two guys who will be playing their last regular season game. The backbone on this side of the ball has been senior linebackers Keith Kelsey and James Burgess. They will have to set the tone for the rest of front group to follow. I think another guy who will play an important role is DeVonte’ Fields. He has started to show us why he was the former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and has totaled 25 tackles, five sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss in the last five contests. At the beginning of the season I think we were all very excited about this Louisville defensive front and now these guys along with DeAngelo Brown, and Pio Vatuvei, will play their most important game of the season. After a subpar effort last week this will also be a shot at redemption for DB’s Shaq Wiggins, Trumaine Washington, Josh Harvey-Clemons and Chucky Williams.

All summer long and during the spring we all talked, and wrote about the potential and talent that the 2015-16 version of the Louisville Football team would have. We knew that we would have some issues up front on the offensive line and we knew that we would have some young guys that would have to step in and fill some gaps. I think we all expected some inconsistency over-all. This is all part of growing pains. The one thing that nobody ever questioned was if this team would play with passion and intensity. Being around these guys in the spring and watching the videos of these guys during their summer weight lifting and workouts I just knew they would be hungry for every down, but last week played their most uninspired half of football of the season. That should not be happening in November. These guys have two game left this season to prove to themselves and to the fans that they can be the team we thought they could be. In the pre-season Sports Illustrated had the Cardinals picked as a sleeper for the college football playoffs? The talent and ability is there.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the game on Saturday. This time it will be different than the last four years. Kentucky is finally getting together enough speed and athleticism to be fairly competitive again and that group really wants to prove to their home crowd that they have indeed turned the corner. They are going to play their asses off to try and reach a Bowl game. The Cardinals will have to match that intensity or it will be a long rainy day in Lexington. I’ll be there cheering for our guys and hope they can get it done. Go Cards!

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 34 UK 28

-(9-04-2010) Derrick Locke, RB@ Kentucky had 23 Carries, 104 Yards, for 2 TD’s
-(9-17-2011) Dexter Heyman, LB@ Louisville had 12 Tackles & 1 Forced Fumbles
-(9-02-2012) Teddy Bridgewater Louisville QB 19/21, 232 Yards
-(9-14-2013) Teddy Bridgewater Louisville QB 16/28, 250 Yards, 1 TD
-(11-29-2014) DeVante Parker Louisville WR 6 Receptions, 180 Yards, 3 TD’s