It has been a whirlwind for the last couple of days around the Louisville basketball program. The passion, purpose and sense of brotherhood of this team has now been discovered by a national audience. Saturday it will be time to refocus and get back down to business as the Cards must win two more games to be the National Champion. The Cards will face another team that has played very inspired basketball this season when they open up their 10th Final Four against the Wichita State Shockers of the Missouri Valley conference.
Some are calling the Shockers the Cinderella of this years NCAA Tournament but I don’t think the glass slipper fits in this case and I don’t think this team wants it to. Wichita State has won 86 games the last three seasons with players who ran faster and jumped higher than most of their opponents. Perhaps overlooked was the fact those players used those tools in the most unselfish and efficient way possible. And their head coach Gregg Marshall has had only one losing season in his last 14 years. The Shockers are no strangers to success as they had their fourth straight 20-win season this year including winning their first 18 straight. This is not the most talented team, but it is one of the hardest-working teams. The Shockers pass the ball, rarely take bad shots and take pride in winning the rebounding battle. They rank in the top 20 for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. This is a deep team that will play 8 to 10 guys a game. They have 3 players that score in double figures and everyone that sees time usually ends up in the scoring column. They have a team mindset when it comes to their offense. On defense they will play man-to-man and use 2-2-1 full-court pressure that forces teams to play faster than they’d like. They have the same defensive philosophy that the Cards have and hope to wear teams down with their deep bench and constant pressure.
Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 111.0 Rank 33
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.9 Rank 23
Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
69.4
117th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
38.4
27th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.8
111th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.443
115th
OVERALL
Wichita State season averages on offense:
3pt-34%, 2pt-44.1%, FT-69.8%
Wichita State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 13.1, Blocks- 4.6, Steals- 7.5
Projected Starters:
C Ehimen Orukpe SR: . Orukpe, a 7-footer from Nigeria, is not a natural scorer or ball handler. But he does help the team with his defense in the Kane and his shot blocking ability and rebounding. He has scored 7 points and has 16 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.
F Carl Hall SR: He is another strong player in the lane and will score most of his points on put backs and post moves. This is a guy who waited for his time and has taken advantage of it. He has scored 43 points and has 12 blocked shots in the NCAA tourney.
G Tekele Cotton SOPH: He is strong enough to guard all of the perimeter shooters. Is a very tough athletic guard that can push the break and get to the rim. He also rebounds well. He has scored 30 points and has 15 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.
G Demetric Williams SR: He is WSU’s top on-the-ball defender. He has earned more playing time when he harnessed his quickness and cut down his turnovers. He has 6 points and 3 assist in the NCAA tourney.
G Malcolm Armstead SR: The lefty point Armstead, a 6-foot Oregon transfer, brings toughness, double-figure scoring and experience to the table for the Shockers. He has scored 62 points and 21 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.
Bench Players:
F Cleanthony Early JR: He is their best weapon off the bench. An all-league performer and all-name team pick, Early was a JUCO gem for a Shockers team that lost its top five scorers from the 2011-12 season. He brings instant offense off the bench and is a good rebounder. He has scored 57 points and 28 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.
G Ron Baker FR: He is a red shirt freshman that gives this team a good three point shooter off the bench and will be brought in to hit clutch shots. He has scored 44 points and hit 6 three point shots in the NCAA tourney.
G Fred VanVleet FR: Was a four-star recruit and the No. 83 player and No. 15 point guard in the class of 2012. He impressed the WSU coaches with his maturity and plays an important role off the bench. He has scored 33 points in the NCAA tourney.
G Nick Wiggins JR: He is the older brother of the nation’s top high school senior, Andrew Wiggins. Junior swingman, is an excellent shooter with great range. He can give WSU off the bench.
You don’t make it to the Final Four without being a really good team. Wichita State is a very good team. They have won 4 games in the tourney primarily from getting extra possessions from their offensive rebounding and steals. They have also had some good 3 point shooting. They will have a tougher time getting the extra possessions against our Cards. Our guys have done a great job of taking care of the ball and they won’t be forced into a frantic style of play. They will welcome it and do it much better than the shockers. The Cards have also done a very good job of guarding the perimeter in the last 4 games so the Shockers won’t see any easy ones.
I also think Louisville can exploit some questionable ball-handling in a way no one has done to the Shockers yet this tourney. Wichita State actually turns it over on 19.6 percent of possessions, and Louisville’s press has the Cardinals ranked second in the country in steal percentage 16.1. The Cards also go to the offensive glass hard, grabbing rebounds on 38.3 percent of its missed shots 15th in the nation. So the Shockers won’t have their usual advantage on the boards.
They have some quality players but Russ, Peyton, Gorgui, Chane, Wayne, Luke, Montrezl and Stephan are on a different level in my opinion. This Cardinal team has their eyes on the prize and it is going to take more than a very good Wichita State team to send them home. I think they will hang with us for a little bit just playing off the emotions of the moment but the Cards will prevail.
The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Wichita State 65